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Cup Week at Flemington continues on Thursday with a nine race program, headlined by the Kennedy Oaks (2500m). The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.

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Race 1. (12:40) Tcl Tv Stakes (bm70) 1700m

Back Me

Tricky race. There are a couple I like here, but I was impressed by the first up win of 7 Tralee Rose (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) at Warrnambool. Admittedly didn’t beat much but gee she was impressive the way she put them away to get the maiden kill out of the way. She showed good promise when last in work…does she want further? Maybe, but think she’s got the quality to measure up.

Danger

2 November Dreaming (Bet Now: $2.60 TOP ODDS) has to carry top weight but she has earned that with the class factor. Resumed over 1400m on Geelong Cup Day where she looked a near good thing on paper and under a confident steer from Williams, she was much too good. Fitter, up to 1700m, she’s very likeable against these, even allowing for the weight rise.

Long Shot

3 Palumbo (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) deserves another chance. Grahame Begg trained mare that was good in the Wakeful back last year. Had a year off and resumed at Pakenham where on face value, she was pretty plain, but was found to be lame post race, so there were excuses. She has got quality and off a forgive first up effort, she deserves another look because she is good enough.

Race 2. (13:15) Ottawa Stakes 1000m

Back Me

1 Fake Love (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS) looks to have a bit of quality about her and I think she can make it 2/2 to start her career. Debuted in the Debutant at Caulfield where she led, copped pressure, but loved the way she beat them off when Zahra clicked her up and she was throttled right down late to win by over a length, and really could have gone quicker if she was fully let down. Think she wins again.

Danger

I’ve got time for 2 Tempest Charm (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS). The Griffiths/De Kock team trains this filly, which made her debut in the Inglis Banner and I loved the way she closed off from the back after bombing the start, finishing third to Sneaky Five. Think that form is inferior to Fake Love, but this girl has talent and draws to get a clear crack and launch late.

Long Shot

5 Naples (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) is a knockout chance. This filly ran third to Fake Love at Caulfield and I thought she closed off quite nicely late, albeit she had her chance to wear down the Maher/Eustace filly. From the gate, can see her stalking Fake Love and getting every chance to knock her off. Definite winning threat.

Race 3. (13:55) Century Stakes 1000m

Back Me

I reckon 9 Varda (Bet Now: $3.80 TOP ODDS) is one of the better gambles of the meeting. James Cummings trained mare that went through her grades nicely during the Sydney winter, winning 4/4 before being spelled, and I always like a horse that goes to the paddock off a win. The confidence they take is immeasurable and gee her Hawkesbury trial win was electric. Hopefully can sit just off the pace and launch, proving too good.

Danger

6 Ancestry (Bet Now: $2.80 TOP ODDS) has been one of the finds of the Spring and no reason why he can’t make it 4/4. Phillip Stokes trained galloper that has really turned the corner since being gelded, his latest win seeing him bolt up over 955m on Cox Plate Day. He’s a short course specialist and should prove very hard to beat here. against these.

Long Shot

If 10 Knowles (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) is within range 250m out, I think she’s good enough to fill a first four spot. Very talented mare for Jason Warren that resumes. Hasn’t raced since contesting the Lightning at Morphettville when a solid fifth to Parlophone. Just one 600m jumpout to get ready for her return, but it was an outstanding piece of work. Keen to see how she goes.

Race 4. (14:35) Twitter Trophy (bm90) 1800m

Back Me

I think there is a great each way bet here in the shape of 6 Savaheat (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) for the Price/Kent team. This bloke resumed over 1400m at Caulfeild on Blue Sapphire Day and had no luck at all in the straight, with no real clear air, but still found the line strongly. Last two second up runs have resulted in wins at this track/distance and I think he’ll take a power of beating.

Danger

4 Irish Flame (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) is doing a really good job this time in for 4 Irish Flame. Ran over 2040m on Manikato Night at the Valley where Michael Walker rode a peach race in the five horse field, and when it became a sit/sprint, he was always going to win and duly he did. Harder here, but he’s honest, in form and loves juice in the track.

Long Shot

1 Hang Man (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) doesn’t want this track to be any more wet, because he is a horse excels on a good track and he is the class of the field. Needed the run fresh here in the Paris Lane before finding a bottomless track in the Sale Cup, a total forgive. Much better placed here. Just hope the track doesn’t get too much worse.

Race 5. (15:15) Off The Track Subzero (bm90) 1400m

Back Me

I do like 8 Housay (Bet Now: $3.80) as a horse and I think can measure up. He ran over 1200m on Moe Cup Day and I thought was massive in defeat given he was ridden against his usual pattern and spotted his main rival Whipcracker Way too much head start. He had to take off 700m out and tried hard, but by the time he got to the 200m, he was gassed. Hope they roll forward, sit near the speed and prove hard to beat.

Danger

6 Caffrey (Bet Now: $4.20) is a Peter Moody trained gelding that resumes. This five year old went 2/2 when last in work, sitting near the speed each time and although the margins were narrow, he was far too good. Finds a winnable race to resume in and stable does place them to advantage.

Long Shot

1 Asterius (Bet Now: $15.00) is a very interesting runner. Chris Waller trained gelding that has nearly had 12 months off, so really keen to see how he goes. He has got quality when right hence the top weight. Just one soft trial to get ready, but I think he has to be a market watch because his best is clearly good enough to measure up against this lot.

Race 6. (15:50) Inglis Bracelet 1600m

Back Me

We haven’t really seen the #SF dominate Cup Week like it usually does, but I think it dominates here, with 5 Rocha Clock (Bet Now: $3.40) looking terribly hard to beat. Definite pass mark fresh at Rosehill in a sit/sprint before going to the Angst where she was good late behind Emeralds, with that form holding up okay in the Golden Eagle. Third up, thin race, upside to come, Bowman on…keen.

Danger

12 Miss Inbetween (Bet Now: $9.00) has the lightweight being the three year old filly in the race and she has the right racing pattern to give this a shake. Ran in the Fillies Classic on Cox Plate Day and tried hard, but Yes Baby Yes had it way too good in front and kicked on strongly to belt them. She’ll land near the front and try very hard.

Long Shot

11 Game Of Thorns (Bet Now: $7.00) is the knockout chance. Kris Lees trained mare that was luckless first up in the Tibbie behind All Saint’s Eve, who ran super in the Golden Eagle. This mare freshened up and raced at Warwick Farm where she produced good late splits behind Instant Attraction despite pulling up slow to recover. Suited up in trip and overall, this isn’t a strong race.

Race 7. (16:30) Melb Cup Carnival C'try Final 1600m

Back Me

4 Kaplumpich (Bet Now: $7.50) isn’t one of mine, but this does look his race. Thought there was plenty of merit in his effort on Geelong Cup Day, sitting wide no cover for the trip yet kept finding the line with purpose when second to Polanco. I think that’s the right form for this and he does draw to get a decent run this time around, hopefully with cover. Bursting to win one and he gets his chance.

Danger

This will be a good test for 1 Polanco (Bet Now: $18.00), but Shea Eden has him flying. Bounced back to form with a win on a testing Ballarat track before being freshened up, jumping out like a jet at Cranbourne, and backing up that work with a strong win on Geelong Cup Day. 62.5kg from gate 14 makes it difficult, but hard to knock the way he’s going.

Long Shot

2 Blinder (Bet Now: $6.50) ran third in this race last year and I think he’s going better in 2020. Dominant win two back over 1500m at Bendigo before being freshened up and coming back to 1400m at Hamilton. He was there to be run down, but showed really good ticker late to fend them off and win. Harder here, and drawn terribly, but he’s very honest.

Race 8. (17:10) Kennedy Oaks 2500m

Back Me

All things being equal, 1 Montefilia (Bet Now: $1.95) should be winning and winning comfortably. David Payne is no mug and he could have easily pulled the pin on her prep after the Spring Champion but he has kept her in work for this, and to be fair, it’s a weak Oaks on paper. She’s got the class and should be too good. Do I want to take the shorts? Probably not, but she’s a one out job in the Quaddie.

Danger

Think 2 Personal (Bet Now: $5.50) will have no issue with the 2500m. She comes through the Wakeful where I thought Olly gave her a 12/10 steer. She was there to win but could t quite get the job done, finishing second to Victoria Quay. She’s got no turn of foot, but will stay and looks a logical pick to fill a minor spot.

Long Shot

7 Tyche Goddess (Bet Now: $17.00) was big odds in the Wakeful and I thought she ran super. Was near the speed throughout and she did try hard. Just lacked the class to finish it off when third to Victoria Quay, but far from disgraced in defeat. She looks to have a bit of timing about her and is a must for a first four spot.

Race 9. (17:50) Red Roses Stakes 1100m

Back Me

It’s hard to get away from 6 Written Beauty (Bet Now: $1.90). Team Hawkes trained filly that is unbeaten in three career outings, the latest on Manikato Night at the Valley where she was 1100m back to 1000m but she made a mess of them and smashed the clock, like most winners did for the night. Looks very much above average and should take a power of beating.

Danger

2 Bella Nipotina (Bet Now: $16.00) is a Stakes winning filly that comes back to Fillies grade after racing in the Red Anchor on Cox Plate Day. She was wide no cover for the trip yet fought on pretty well in defeat behind Portland Sky against the track pattern. Back to 1100m and against her own sex, she is very likeable. Just a matter of what upside she has got left given she has been up a while.

Long Shot

13 Chianti (Bet Now: $11.00) is a knockout chance. I’ve always had time for this Kris Lees trained filly. Has been kept on the fresh side, having not raced for a few weeks since a game a second to Written Beauty at Canterbury, and of course she blew them away the start after, so the form reads quite well and the stable always have to be respected during Cup Week.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 1 Montefilia

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 9 Varda

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 6 Savaheat

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3, 5, 11, 12

Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 6, 9

Leg Three: 1

Leg Four: 6, 13

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