Group l racing continues at Randwick on Saturday for another cracking program, headlined by some of the best three year olds in the business in the Randwick Guineas (1600m). The weather forecast is for showers the track is heavy (9) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:25) : Affiinity Shipping Reisling Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: I’m quite confident that 4 From Within (Best Odds: $6.00) can knock off She Will Reign here. From Within had two runs during the Summer. Trotted up on debut at Canterbury before going to the Magic Millions Classic at the Gold Coast where she was popular in the market but just had no luck in the run and perhaps pilot error from Bowman. Back now, and she looked to trial brilliantly last week at Warwick Farm. Bred to swim and she has been sharp in all three trials on soft ground.
Big Danger: This run will tell us if 2 She Will Reign (Best Odds: $1.26) is a contender/pretender in regards to the Golden Slipper. Given the lack of quality engaged here outside From Within, she will be included in the selections. To the eye, she looked very impressive in winning the Silver Slipper, but when you screw down that meeting, she did find the best ground, which was about 4/5 horses off the rail, and IMHO, she beat nothing. Different kettle of fish here, and 1200m on a likely heavy track is a different pain barrier. Concede she’s a threat, but her price is silly, as it is for the Golden Slipper.
Long Shot: 6 Star Sensation (Best Odds: $31.00) is a progressive filly for Mark Newnham who gets her chance to qualify for the Slipper here. Beat all bar Delago Thunder on debut at Kembla Grange before going to Hawkesbury where she took on a pretty strong maiden and gave them a nice spanking under Rachel King. Lacks the class and brilliance, but she has the hard fitness edge and is bred to handle the going.
Race Two (13:05) : UNSW Todman Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 6 Menari (Best Odds: $1.85) is the well bred colt that is high up in Slipper markets. He put pay to them on debut here, beating Taking Aim, who ran so well at Flemington last week. He then went to the Canonbury where it was an absolute tragedy for all concerned as he got badly bailed away and had no momentum whereas the winner Pariah was up and going out wide. Pariah came out and nearly won the Blue Diamond, so that form reads so well. Can definitely atone despite being a risk at 1200m IMHO.
Big Danger: 2 Veranillio (Best Odds: $4.20) probably lacks the class and brilliance of Menari, but the one he does have on his side is hard racing under the belt. Comes here through the Silver Slipper where he tried hard but was just simply no match for She Will Reign. Draws to get the suck run behind the tempo, and his fitness could come into play late.
Long Shot: 12 Gunnison (Best Odds: $11.00) is the interesting one. Thrown in the deep end by Team Snowden but there was alot to like about his debut win at Canberra in the Black Opal Prelude, finishing off with real purpose to grab victory in the last couple of strides. He has trialled well on soft ground, but not heavy. But he is by Not A Single Doubt, and they swim.
Race Three (13:40) : Bradley Australia Fireball Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: 6 Glenall (Best Odds: $3.90) is a talented three year old for Les Bridge who resumed here at the midweeks where he was a rock solid odds on pop but the way the track played, leaders found it impossible to win. He still did a very good job to finish as close as he did. Looks a major contender here.
Big Danger: 1 Scarlet Rain (Best Odds: $2.90) has been very good in two runs back from a long break for the Waterhouse/Bott team. She ran over 1100m at Rosehill a fortnight back where she ran along in front and gave a really good kick late but was no match for Tactical Advantage. Compressed weights here suit her perfectly, maps well and handles a wet track.
Long Shot: 7 Conchita (Best Odds: $11.00) is a nippy filly that resumes for the Paul Perry yard. Bolted up at Moonee Valley during the Spring before racing on Oaks Day and finishing down the track behind Spright. Trials have been very good leading in, she goes well fresh and is a heavy track winner at Randwick.
Race Four (14:15) : Chi-X Australia Wenona Girl Quality 1200m:
Back Me: 1 Nancy (Best Odds: $5.00) trialled brilliantly in front of several subsequent winners prior to resuming in the Triscay where she looked to travel well near the speed and looked to have the race in her keeping but she was bloused late by Zestful. Can run well second up, and I think she will be much better when she has a bunny to chase.
Big Danger: 6 Hieroglyphics (Best Odds: $4.80) deserves a crack at blacktype after two sharp wins this time in, both times ridden an absolute peach by Brenton Avdulla. As good as Avdulla is, you can’t say that the booking of the Magic Man is a negative, especially after what he did last Saturday at Caulfield. This mare ticks alot of boxes.
Long Shot: 8 Alucinari (Best Odds: $13.00) comes through the Hieroglyphics race at Rosehill a fortnight back where he was back in the run and it was a day where making up ground out wide was difficult to do. She did a really good job actually to finish as close as she did. Good second up record and can handle a wet track.
Race Five (14:50) : Canterbury BMW Stakes 1300m:
Back Me: 4 Music Magnate (Best Odds: $3.70) clearly on top for me here. Star galloper for Bjorn Baker that looked the part at the trials and backed that up when resuming in the Expressway (1200m). Didn’t do it brilliantly, but it was very tradesman like. Been given a little freshen up and has been kept up to the mark with an impressive Gosford barrier trial. Maps well, fitness edge…the one to beat.
Big Danger: I’m giving enormous respect to 2 Le Romain (Best Odds: $5.00). High class animal trained by Kris Lees who also looked outstanding at the trials prior to resuming in the Southern Cross a tick under three weeks back where he had confident support from the punters and he repaid that with a tough narrow win. That was with 61kg. WFA is the unknown, but he is classy enough to handle that I’d suspect.
Long Shot: Another class animal that resumes here is 3 Hauraki (Best Odds: $10.00) for Godolphin and John O’Shea. In any other year, he’d be nearly talked up as the horse to watch for this Carnival after what he did in the Spring. His Epsom win was Super Impose-esque before running in the Cox Plate and then running a game second in the Emirates. Trial was good, he won fresh last prep and he handles all conditions. Big watch.
Race Six (15:30) : Hyland Race Colours Challenge Stakes 1000m:
Back Me: She can be hot and colt, but I am going with 7 English (Best Odds: $3.70) here. This star mare for the Waterhouse/Bott yard hasn’t raced since the Spring where she finished down the track in the Darley Classic. That overall Spring prep was a major flop after she promised so much. She is explosive when she is right, and she has looked the part in a couple of trials. I think she will prove too good for them here.
Big Danger: 4 Dal Cielo (Best Odds: $8.50) faces his toughest test to date here since joining the Kris Lees camp. I have been a huge fan of this horse since being transferred to the Kris Lees stable and the results are coming in. He dominated them last time out here and though the margin was narrow, the win was soft and impressive because he wanted to do a bit wrong. The break between runs is the norm with him, though I would have liked a run under his belt given we are likely going to have a wet track.
Long Shot: 10 Kentucky Miss (Best Odds: $9.50) is a talented filly that resumes for the Joe Pride stable. She was freshened up after winning at this track/distance. Went to Warwick Farm then and got the job done before again coming here on Oaks Day where she was far from disgraced behind Spright. Trial win was sharp and she saves her best for when she is produced fresh.
Race Seven (16:10) : Girvan Waugh Randwick Guineas 1600m:
Back Me: Have to stick solid with 5 Comin’ Through (Best Odds: $3.80). I thought his effort in the Hobartville was full of merit. Was heavily backed but just didn’t quite appear to let down strongly enough on the sticky surface. The hangover from last Saturday and this track may be the issue, but the Randwick mile looks perfect, third up and he looks ready.
Big Danger: 3 Inference (Best Odds: $6.00) looks the big threat here. Resumed in the Hobartville and was right out wide on the course, where it was pretty much like quicksand compared to inside him, but he finished off strongly behind Man From Uncle. From all reports, he flew in trackwork on a bottomless track on Tuesday, and the Randwick mile, on a wet track, plays right into his hands.
Long Shot: I’m really surprised that $61+ is on offer for 12 Hardham (Best Odds: $51.00). David Briedoake trained galloper that resumed in the CS Hayes and worked home well from near last to run midfield behind Hey Doc. That is pretty good for this, and his lone wet track run saw him three lengths off Group l performer Saracino. Stable only travel to Sydney unless they want success.
Race Eight (16:50) : City Ford Aspiration Quality 1600m:
Back Me: With a likely wet track, it’s hard to tip against 6 Song And Laughter (Best Odds: $10.00) or at least think she’ll go close. She comes through the Parramatta Cup (1900m) at Rosehill where she got back in the run and closed off quite well late behind the hard fit/in form Classic Uniform. That form has already been franked via Dark Eyes. She’s had the good grounding for a tough Randwick mile and she is an absolute swimmer.
Big Danger: 8 Queen of Wands (Best Odds: $11.00) was five weeks between runs when racing over 1350m at Rosehill a fortnight back where the tempo was against her but despite that she closed off her race with real purpose when third to Elle Lou. She is another who will be ideally suited up to 1600m, has upside and has run well on soft ground previously.
Long Shot: 12 Moqueen (Best Odds: $12.00) is the one to watch from an Oaks perspective. I think you should have a dabble at the price before she runs here. She resumed in the Light Fingers (1200m) where the distance was clearly short of best, but despite that, I thought she ran really well behind Global Glamour. She’ll up the mile here, and I am keen to see how she measures up.
Race Nine (17:30) : Girvan Waugh Randwick City Stakes 2000m:
Back Me: Hard fit, light weight…looks an ideal recipe for 7 Montauk (Best Odds: $4.20) to bounce back into the winners list. He was very game I thought last week at this track/distance. He was cold in the market and unwanted, but he ran a beauty with the 60kg and the dawdling tempo when second to Dark Eyes. Heavy track is the worry, but he’s hard fit and tumbles 6.5kg in weight.
Big Danger: 1 Allergic (Best Odds: $3.20) was backed as if he was Black Caviar when racing in the Parramatta Cup last time out but he punters down badly with a really poor effort behind Classic Uniform. No real excuses to my eye in the run because the tempo was genuine and he did find the best ground. But perhaps second up syndrome? Giving him another look here.
Long Shot: 2 Kinema (Best Odds: $6.50) is one of the leading contenders for the Sydney Cup, so whatever he does here, he will improve on. Resumed over 1500m at Rosehill where he was simply not sharp enough for them behind stablemate Antonio Giuseppe. If this was a firm track, he’d be no chance, but his soft track form is good, he has Moreira steering and the wet track does bring him closer to them.
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 5 Comin’ Through
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 4 Music Magnate
VALUE: Race Eight Number 6 Song And Laughter
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 4, 7, 9, 10
Leg Two: 2, 3, 5, 9, 12
Leg Three: 1, 3, 6, 8, 10. 12
Leg Four: 1, 2, 6, 7
$50 Investment= 8.33% of the dividend if successful
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