A strong eight event program will be run and won at Ascot on Saturday where it 1000 Guineas Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (16:14) : Amelia Park Karrakatta Plate Day April 1 Handicap 1400m:
Back Me: 4 Bold Success (Best Odds: $3.30) for me here. This Williams runner debuted at Bunbury where he took a while to wind up but got there in the end before coming here at the midweeks where he got back and finished off nicely behind Bounce Down. Showing good promise and I think he can measure up here.
Big Danger: 1 Wrinkly (Best Odds: $4.40) drops a bit in depth after contesting the Challenge Stakes last time out where he sat near the speed and just faded out of it late in the piece. Not much as depth here but maps well and has the class factor.
Long Shot: 3 Mass Effect (Best Odds: $7.50) is on the quick back up after racing over 1500m here last Wednesday where he sat off the pace and tried hard but couldn’t quite get the job done. Rises in grade here, but stable is going very well and he is hard fit.
Race Two (16:54) : Schwepes WATC Derby Day April 8 Handicap (1MW) 1400m:
Back Me: 2 Galaxy Star (Best Odds: $1.55) is indeed that. Or a future one at least. Ran here a fortnight back and looked in an awful spot in the run under Pike, but in the straight he barged into the clear and savaged the line like a potential Railway horse for later in the year. He’s very exciting and he should put this field away.
Big Danger: 1 Fathnoxious (Best Odds: $7.50) hasn’t raced for three weeks since racing in the Pearl Classic at Pinjarra where she gave a tremendous kick in front and was only grabbed the final 100m. Firmer footing here will help and she is getting fitter. Should take a stack of beating.
Long Shot: 4 Fancy Fox (Best Odds: $7.00) also comes through the Pearl Classic at Pinjarra where she was an outsider in betting but despite that, she worked home with real purpose to run fourth to Celebrity Dream. Draws to sit much closer here and rates highly to my eye.
Race Three (17:35) : Get The Tabtouch Handicap (1MW) 1800m:
Back Me: 8 Hakuna Matata (Best Odds: $14.00) took an absolute eternity to break his maiden status, but as we see often, once they win a race, they go on with it, and that’s what this horse did last start at Bunbury when chasing a hot speed and outstaying his rivals. 1800m is short of his best, but if they go hard in front, he’s the horse you want to be on.
Big Danger: 10 Sonnen (Best Odds: $5.50) has had two runs back from a break. Latest came a fortnight back over the mile here when having a charmed run and sticking on okay late behind Point. Third up at 1800m looks ideal and he draws to get a sweet trip.
Long Shot: 2 Royal Supreme (Best Odds: $7.00) is a handy galloper for Team Williams that hasn’t had much to his way this time in. Not much luck in two runs, but has got held up both times and hasn’t been given much of a chance to show his best. Drawn wide here, so he should get clear running this time around. Big improver.
Race Four (18:10) : Supremacy Stakes 1000m:
Back Me: 1 Keeper Keen (Best Odds: $2.60) looks a clear way to go here. Unbeaten in two career outings during the Spring. Looks one of the leading contenders for the Karrakatta and looks set off the back of an impressive trial effort. Keen.
Big Danger: 7 Seannie (Best Odds: $2.80) is a smart filly that resumes for the Simon Miller camp. She debuted during the Spring here where she sat near the speed and kicked on strongly to beat Golden Trigger, who has run well since. Trial was quite encouraging and she looks to have really strengthened up.
Long Shot: 3 My Demi (Best Odds: $34.00) hasn’t raced for three weeks since racing in the Magic Millions at Pinjarra where he just seemed outclassed when finishing down the track. Had performed well prior so I think he can bounce back hard here.
Race Five (18:50) : Vale Sid Richardson Handicap (72+) 1200m:
Back Me: 6 Chinetti (Best Odds: $11.00) is a nippy customer for the Paul Jordan yard who will no doubt be leading this field, which is what he did a fortnight back here but he just tired late behind Seeker. Last 100m will be the best, but if he has a big enough break, he will go close.
Big Danger: 3 Red Paddy is on the back up here for Simon Miller and Aaron Mitchell. On the back up after racing last Saturday where he got back to near last in the run and savaged the line late to run a close up third to Dezzies Dream. Just needs better luck and to sit closer in the run to go close.
Long Shot: 2 Dueton (Best Odds: $15.00) can be a hard horse to follow, but I think he is right into this race up to his ears. Ran over 1100m here last Saturday where he got well back in the run, then got held up, but once clear, he flashed late to run fourth to Dezzies Dream. If the breaks go his way here, he will go close.
Race Six (19:25) : Schweppes Ascot 1000 Guineas 1800m:
Back Me: 7 Royal Star (Best Odds: $2.10) could well be her namesake- A star. Two for two for Team Williams who comes here off the back of a two length over 1400m here on January 18 where Pike had her perched up near the speed and she justified the short quote with a comfortable win. Looked the part in a couple of trials, and really, she has enormous scope. Should make it three from three.
Big Danger: 1 Precious Memories (Best Odds: $3.60) is a ripping filly who is high class and perhaps one of the better performed three year olds in the state. She comes through the Challenge Stakes a fortnight back where she was ridden a treat by Jerry Noske and got the win on the peg. This distance, with a cold steer, looks ideal and is the key threat.
Long Shot: 2 Chill The Champers (Best Odds: $126.00) is a handy filly when she brings her best so I’d closely watch her here. She ran over 1400m here last Wednesday where she sat three wide cover and looked in a striking position but couldn’t quite finish the job done. In the master stable of Fred Kersley, so can’t ignore her just yet.
Race Seven (20:00) : St Patricks Raceday March 17 Handicap (1MW) 1400m:
Back Me: 7 Jingtang (Best Odds: $6.00) is a handy sprinter who is never far away from the action. Ran here a fortnight back where they tried something different and got him near the speed but he didn’t quite finish it off when fourth to Galaxy Star. If they ride him cold, he will take some beating here.
Big Danger: 9 Checkers (Best Odds: $9.50) is on the quick back up for the Parnham yard after racing over this track/distance last Wednesday where he didn’t get much room in the straight and should have finished a touch closer when running third. Looks capable of rising to this level.
Long Shot: 11 Red Glow (Best Odds: $12.00) also comes through that race Checkers contested last Wednesday where he attempted to lead all the way and tried hard but couldn’t quite get the job done. Might be best when ridden with cover so if that can eventuate here, he will take some beating here.
Race Eight (20:35) : Vale Brandan Thompson Handicap (72+) 1600m:
Back Me: 4 Pinzu (Best Odds: $7.50) is the hard fit runner in super form at the moment for the Durrant/Miller yard. He ran here several weeks back where he chased hard down the entire straight and finished off gamely to run second to Sassos Circus. Been up a long time but is racing very well and has to be included.
Big Danger: 2 Material Man (Best Odds: $3.00) resumed over 1400m here a fortnight back and I thought his effort in defeat was very good given he was back in the run and had to make up a stack of ground so for him to finish as close as he did was very good. Can only improve off that and is a major threat.
Long Shot: 7 Baraki Beats (Best Odds: $7.00) was disappointing in that race mentioned above with Material Man given he sat wide no cover for the trip and dropped out of it late. Draws much better here so he should roll along in front and give a stack of cheek.
BEST BET: Race Six Number 7 Royal Star
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 2 Galaxy Star
VALUE: Race Three Number 8 Hakuna Matata
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 2, 3
Leg Two: 7
Leg Three: 7, 8, 9, 11
Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 11
$50 Investment= 104.16% of the dividend if successful
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