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The iconic Warrnambool Carnival gets underway on Tuesday where it is Brierly Day. The weather is fine, the track is heavy (9) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Brierly Steeplechase 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Brierly Steeplechase

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Race 1. (11:20) WELCOME TO THE 'BOOL MDN HRDL 3200m

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Back Me

The forecast says this track will likely be heavy, so with that in mind, I’m with 4 Hey Happy (Bet Now: $5.00) for Patrick Payne. He has had two runs this time in, both coming over 1800m, the latest being at Kyneton when good late behind Protection Money. He has been prepped for this for a couple of months and is a swimmer so the wetter the better, and I’m a big fan of Aaron Kuru.

Danger

If this track was on the firmer side, I’d have 3 Field Of Lights (Bet Now: $2.50) on top. I think Symon Wilde has him ticking along beautifully. Done recent racing over the longer trips on the flat and been pretty good for the most part. His Cranbourne trial, jumping wise, was okay, but looked much better in his trial here last Friday. Leading chance.

Long Shot

The forecast for rain helps the cause of 1 Bedivere (Bet Now: $20.00). Formerly with Kris Lees, this guy does his best racing when he gets his toe in so he should get conditions to suit. He ran at Moe on Anzac Day in a prep run for this but gee you could easily make a case to say he fights the finish out with clear air. A win wouldn’t totally shock, especially with the Musgrove polish.

Race 2. (12:00) CALLY HOTEL MDN HRDL 3200m

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Back Me

5 Just You (Bet Now: $11.00) on top in what does look a two horse race IMO. This guy is a swimmer and for the first time since arriving over from NZ, he will get a truly wet track. Recent runs on the flat have been quite strong and I have loved the way he has trialled in readiness. I think he’s the one to beat, just.

Danger

The only other winning contender to my eye is 10 Wil John (Bet Now: $3.90) for the Maher/Eustace camp with Pateman to steer. He resumes the Jericho Cup placegetter, having not raced since Feb 19 when down the track at the Valley. The concern I have with him is that he is much better on top of the ground compared to wet ground, so he’ll want the rain to stay away.

Long Shot

7 Pueblo (Bet Now: $9.00) can sneak a first four spot. The Feek stable trains this guy, who ran at Moe on Anzac Day when back in the run and working home strongly late when third to impressive winner Sir Marengo. His recent jumps trials here was more than encouraging and does have the flat speed to be a contender, but a bit behind the first two.

Race 3. (12:40) G TAYLOR MEMORIAL MDN HRDL 3200m

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Back Me

The heavy track concerns me big time with 8 Mawaany Machine (Bet Now: $1.60), but I can’t tip against him because there is just nothing here that has his quality. If this track was a Soft5/6, no betting. He wins by 20 and would be a genuine $1.10 chance. His effort at Flemington on Anzac Day behind Amade was very good, and really, none of these would get close at metro level. He wins, but could I back him? No, just because of the wet track.

Danger

5 Gravistas (Bet Now: $4.20) is the the wet track horse and is the only horse I can see beating Mawaany machine. Formerly with the Freedman camp, this horse is with Patrick Payne and being trained as a jumper, he is showing promise based on his trials and his recent race day form has been sound. Sharp trial win here as well last Friday.

Long Shot

10 White Heath (Bet Now: $17.00) can sneak a first four spot. He ran over 3200m in a jumps race at Pakenham last time and whacked away pretty well in defeat I thought when third to a handy jumper in Saunter Boy. He’s honest who is rarely far away. Doubt he wins, but can finish top four.

Race 4. (13:15) SL DISTRIBUTORS MDN PLATE 1200m

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Back Me

I just think this a perfect race for 8 Bubbly Lass (Bet Now: $2.25) and she’s the second best on the card for mine. Market didn’t want a bar of her late when she resumed over 1200m at Pakenham. While it was right, I thought the run was very good. Just got a tad too far back in a slowly run race. Her 400-200m split was clearly the best in the race by over a length, then her condition just gave out. She’ll come on from that, gets run of the race from the draw…she’ll do me.

Danger

I’m very interested in 3 Finneas (Bet Now: $4.20) and if he’s missed in the market, I can easily have something on him as cover for Bubbly Las. On debut for Aaron Purcell and I was quite taken by his recent Terang jumpout. He moved quite well out wide when third to a quality Lindsey Smith pair in Great Again and Tydeus, both Saturday class animals. I think he’s above average, so keen to se how he goes.

Long Shot

6 Prosecutor (Bet Now: $16.00) isn’t one of mine but concede he has the runs on the board to perhaps sneak a first four spot. Resumes for Shea Eden off the back of one jumpout compared to two last prep, so that’s interesting, whether they are trying to keep him with a bit of sprint in the legs. First four threat.

Race 5. (13:45) VOBIS GOLD STRIKE 1000m

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Back Me

I’ll take a chance with first starter 7 New York Baby (Bet Now: $4.20) for the Corstens camp. This girl has had a couple of jumpouts at Flemington to get ready for start one, the latest seeing her lead throughout to win and noteworthy that Olly rode in that win. He rides for start one here, whether that is a lead. I think it is.

Danger

2 Cardigan Queen (Bet Now: $2.50) looks to have her share of talent for the Maher/Eustace team. Debuted at Bendigo where she got a mile back in the run but loved the way she closed off late when second to I Am In The Mood. Bred to handle the wet track and with race experience on her side, she’s likeable.

Long Shot

1 Dueastar (Bet Now: $8.00) looks the pick of the raced pair. Was big odds when winning on debut at Terang, but she was backed late and her overall time was quite strong relative to the meeting. Home track advantage and Beetroot Williams loves to target a feature race during the Carnival on his home track.

Race 6. (14:20) BRIERLY STEEPLECHASE 3450m

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Back Me

The tempo should be genuine here, and with that in mind, it should allow 7 Sweet Lullaby (Bet Now: $9.00) to relax. She was feral at Murray Bridge last time out with her manners. She did everything wrong in the run, pulling her head off, which meant she had nothing left for the straight. Her best is good enough I feel, she’s got upside and in the right camp.

Danger

Is there bigger fish to fry for 1 Bit Of A Lad (Bet Now: $4.80)? Perhaps, but he does have the runs on the board over most of these being an Australian Steeple winner. He resumes with two solid trials under the belt to get ready, looking strong in his latest trial here. If he’s fit, he’ll take beating.

Long Shot

2 Police Camp (Bet Now: $10.00) will roll along on speed and give them something to chase. Didn’t think he was too bad fresh in a maiden over the mile at Hamilton, but there was real intent in his trial win here over some key rivals engaged in this race. Led throughout and gapped them. He’ll give a sight at odds.

Race 7. (14:55) MERCEDES-BENZ (BM78) 2350m

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Back Me

I’m going the way of 7 Thunder Cloud (Bet Now: $15.00). I reckon Maddie Raymond has this guy humming along beautifully. Thought he was game in defeat last time out at Kyneton and the tick over jump trial, likely to sharpen him up, was a lovely piece of work. Don’t see the 2350m being an issue and he loves wet ground.

Danger

4 Savvy Lad (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Busuttin/Young trained galloper that is in a purple patch at the moment. He has won his past two, both coming over the ten furlongs at Cranbourne, and each time he has been ridden a treat by Froggy. The 2350m here should be fine and Froggy sticks for the ride.

Long Shot

13 Jukila (Bet Now: $26.00) has a liking for the Bool and is starting to find some positive form. Didn’t think he was too bad two back at Ballarat, then closed off quite well late last time out at Cranbourne. If this becomes a slog, which it likely will be, he’s a stayer and will be strong at the end compared to most.

Race 8. (15:30) MAGIC MILLIONS NAT. SALE HCP 1700m

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Back Me

I think 7 Chantrea (Bet Now: $4.20) is the first good thing of the Carnival. Lindsey Smith has kept her on ice since her resumption in the Bendigo Bracelet where she was wide throughout yet kept surging and was great in defeat when beaten narrowly. Tick over jumpout at Terang was strong, Olly steers…my only niggle is, is she being targeted towards a 2000m F&M blacktype at Morphettville in the next couple of weeks. But, that aside, she’s clearly the one to beat here.

Danger

12 Duke Of Plumpton (Bet Now: $3.20) is a swimmer and he gets conditions to suit. Resumed over the mile at Caulfield and I loved the way he finished his race off from the back when fourth to a very genuine galloper in Mr Exclusive. That form is inferior to most engaged here, but the wet track brings him right into the mix.

Long Shot

I’ll take a chance in including 9 Fifth Position (Bet Now: $3.20), a former UK galloper making his Australian debut for the Price/Kent camp. You go through his form, gee it reads well for a race like this when looking at his UK form and race replays. Thought he trialled well enough at Cranbourne so watch the market.

Race 9. (16:00) CHOICES FLOORING SWINTONS-BM70 1200m

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Back Me

5 Realeza (Bet Now: $4.20) looks a safe option for Symon Wilde. Resumed over 1100m at Geelong where she sat back off the speed before peeling wider and letting down with good change up speed to record a sharp first up win. Trained here you would suspect she has been targeted at this Carnival so in a tricky race, she’ll do me.

Danger

8 La Vina (Bet Now: $2.70) is a talented daughter of Artie Schiller for Lindsey Smith that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since Feb 7 when bolting up on wet ground at Ballarat, her first run in Victoria since coming from WA. Olly is found to ride and thought her recent jumpout was more than encouraging.

Long Shot

2 Soul Fire (Bet Now: $11.00) loves wet ground and is proven at Warrnambool so if there is a value runner to entertain, it could well be him. Ran over 1200m at Ballarat last time out and found the line pretty well from off the speed when fourth to Corner Pocket. I think he’s a must include for multiples.

Race 10. (16:30) CARLTON DRAUGHT (BM64) 1100m

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Back Me

11 Show Some Decorum (Bet Now: $3.90) gets the nod for me in the get out. Resumed a few weeks ago at Mornington over 1000 and if you were on, apologies for bringing up the nightmare. With clear air throughout in the straight, I think he fights the finish out instead of a luckless fourth. Form from last prep, gee it reads well for a race like this with good metro form around him.

Danger

9 Sacred Palace (Bet Now: $3.20) is the obvious yard/market watch here. Former Kiwi that makes his Australian debut for Lindsey Smith with connections that have had success recently with the stable. His form in NZ, it reads okay, but certainly nothing to jump up and down about, much like his Terang jumpout, but stable/jock combo have to be respected.

Long Shot

3 Bull Dust (Bet Now: $31.00) is a handy galloper resuming for Quinny Scott. He did some nice things when last in work, putting together a couple on the bounce, and was far from disgraced at Ballarat in a decent benchmark race. One quiet jumpout to get ready, but he can sneak a minor spot without surprising.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 7 Chantrea

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 8 Bubbly Lass

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 7 Thunder Cloud

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 4, 7, 10, 13, 14

Leg Two: 7

Leg Three: 2, 5, 8, 13

Leg Four: 2, 3, 9, 11

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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