Black type racing returns to Flemington this Saturday, with the $120,000 Listed Kensington Stakes (1200m) highlighting a strong nine race card. The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.
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OFFFER:
Race One (12:25) : Michael Stewart Plate (78) 1100m:
Back Me: 4 Ready Sunshine (Best Odds: $12.00) is on the back up from last Saturday at Moonee Valley when making up nice ground late between runners when seventh to the in form sprinter Runsati. The form out of her previous outing has held up to some extent, and she has run well on the seven day back up before.
Big Danger: 1 Just A Bullet (Best Odds: $11.00) is a talented type that resumes for Brett Cavanough. This son of Danerich hasn’t raced since November at Moonee Valley when finishing down the track behind Trevinder in a race where the form has not held up at all. That’s the query, but has a touch of class and runs very well first up.
Roughie: 2 Mr Walker (Best Odds: $16.00) has been given a month freshen up since lumping 61kg to win on his home track at Warranmbool after being well backed in betting. He gets a lovely weight drop here, and though it’s his Flemington, he should measure up for sure IMO.
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Race Two (13:00) : Peter Heath Handicap (90) 1200m:
Back Me: 6 Onerous (Best Odds: $2.60) has always been a highly touted horse for Team Hawkes and while he hasn’t quite lived up to the hype, he still has a great amount of talent. He resumed at Ladbrokes Park on December 30 and while the margin was narrow, the win was sharp. Trained on the track and should be better off fitness wise.
Big Danger: 4 Zupacharged (Best Odds: $4.20) looks the one to beat on form after closing off nicely in the Chester Manifold (1400m) here two weeks ago when running third to Tudor in a race where the form held up okay on Tuesday in the John Dillon. Back down the straight suits and Dean Yendall gets on very well with Kylie Vella trained gallopers.
Roughie: 3 Havana (Best Odds: $10.00) is such an interesting runner here. He resumes for Paul Messara, where his last start was a dominant win in the South Muswellbrook Cup. He had a jump out at Mornington last week and was quite impressive in winning that by a space, and the time was good. On his best form, he’d beat these comfortably.
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Race Three (13:37) : Barrie Kerr Handicap (90) 1600m:
Back Me: Going to butter up on 7 Tidy Prophet (Best Odds: $8.50). She was my best bet for the weekend last Saturday, and it was just a nightmare to watch. I love backing Josh Cartwright, but he has got it wrong on her at her past two starts, where she really should have won on both occasions. Bursting to win, and this really does look her race.
Big Danger: 2 Miss Softhands (Best Odds: $4.00) has been in outstanding form this time in, remaining unbeaten, with her last start being over 1400m here a fortnight when ridden a treat by Oliver. No issues with running the mile and she is the best chance of the local mares by some distance.
Roughie: 8 Darcy’s Law (Best Odds: $8.00) has been excellent this time in, and that was evident last time out at Ladbrokes Park where she led all the way over 1500m and just kept going thanks to a gun on speed steer from Brad Rawiller. Gives the impression she’ll love Flemington and she is on an upward spiral form wise. She isn’t going backwards.
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Race Four (14:12) : Doriemus Handicap 2000m:
Back Me: 3 Second Bullet (Best Odds: $2.30) was given a peach of a steer from Olly to win over this track/distance last time out, going forward to lead after getting stuck wide early on, dictated and sprinted hard late to win impressively. He is in a real purple patch at the moment and there is no reason why he can’t win again and continue the picket fence.
Big Danger: 9 Tashbeeh (Best Odds: $5.00) was ridden a treat by apprentice Tom Marquand to win three weeks back over 1800m at Caulfield in a race where the form has been franked. 2000m is the query, but he only carries 52.5kg and will do no work from gate one.
Roughie: 2 Real Love (Best Odds: $4.40) is the class runner engaged here. The 2015 Perth Cup winner last raced in the 2016 edition when running third to Delicacy and Neverland. That form reads so well for a race like, and one can only assume she will approve now she is under the care of Darren Weir.
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Race Five (14:47) : Andrew Guy Handicap 1100m:
Back Me: I thought 5 Safariann (Best Odds: $18.00) was a good thing when she resumed at Geelong, but the market told the story, where she just about doubled her price on track and ran accordingly, running a terrible eighth of nine, with the Stewards Report revealing nothing wrong, which is the concern. But on her jump outs, she just can’t be ignored, and she looked sharp again in another jump out on January 19 at Ladbrokes Park.
Big Danger: 3 Alaskan Rose (Best Odds: $7.00) is a classy filly that resumes for Mike Moroney. She was touted as a Thousand Guineas type, and while she eventually ran in that race, I think she had enough given it was her first prep. Hasn’t caught my eye at the jump outs, but on class, she is a threat.
Roughie: 4 Claudia Jean (Best Odds: $13.00) resumes for the Hayes/Dabernig team after nearly a year off the scene. Could not have been more impressive at the jump outs last Friday, and on that, she looks ready to rumble first up, so watch for market moves.
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Race Six (15:26) : John Calvert Handicap (78) 1400m:
Back Me: 7 Pattern (Best Odds: $2.90) is shaping up to be a contender for the Guineas. This Lloyd Williams galloper has been very impressive in his two career outings, both resulting in wins, the latest over this track/distance when wide no cover for the duration yet proved far too good. Only has upside, and with normal, I think he will win again. Also a big watch on Zurprising, who looks a rising star and just oozed class in winning last start.
Big Danger: 5 Mihany (Best Odds: $12.00) is another that is racing well, but he just can’t quite crack if for a win. He ran second to Ballinaclash in that Pakenham race mentioned above, and he had his chance to gun down the leader, but he was too good. He has a solid record at Flemington without winning, and he should be around the mark once again.
Roughie: 2 Gold Force (Best Odds: $21.00) resumed at Geelong a fortnight back and was a bit disappointing I thought when fifth to Day After Tomorrow, but I will put it down to the fact he had to lump 60.5kg. Drops 4kg here, trained on the track and should get the run of the race from the gate.
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Race Seven (16:06) : Kensington Stakes 1000m:
Back Me: Taking a chance on the Tony McEvoy trained 2 Iconic (Best Odds: $7.50). He had one run in the Autumn, at Doomben, where he wasn’t suited by the speed bias and tight track. Has been given a good break, and his trial win at Morphettville was Black Caviar like in terms of how easy he won it. He should run very well here based on that and his first up record.
Big Danger: 1 The Quarterback (Best Odds: $6.00) is a popular horse with punters because of his racing pattern of getting back and ambushing late, and that pattern worked perfectly on Oaks Day when nailing Wild Rain, who has since won and placed in several Stakes races. No trials leading in, but he has class and can run well fresh.
Roughie: 6 Yesterday’s Songs (Best Odds: $7.00) is an intriguing runner here. He resumes for Mike Moroney after a two run Spring prep, which ended here behind Worthy Cause where he found it hard to make significant ground in a leader dominated contest. Jump outs have been very encouraging and his Flemington form reads very well for a race like this.
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Race Eight (16:46) : Kyle Smith Handicap (84) 1400m:
Back Me: 9 Camdus (Best Odds: $2.25) is a progressive type for Darren Weir who has won three from four, and arguably should be unbeaten. Brad Rawiller produced a lovely ride on the horse to win last time out over 1400m at Ladbrokes Park, aided by a strong tempo in front of him. Gives the impression he will eat up the Flemington 1400m and the stable, as always, is flying.
Big Danger: 12 Best Suggestion (Best Odds: $10.00) stuck to the task very gamely when running second to the well above average galloper Zurprising at Ladbrokes Park, beaten just under five lengths. No Zurprising here, but there is Camdus. In saying that, he drops 7kg from last start. Only threat IMO.
Roughie: 7 The New Boy (Best Odds: $9.50) attempted to lead all the way over this distance at Caulfield but he just pulled too hard in front and tired late to run fourth to Fast Approaching. He has a great record on his home track and will give them something to chase. Just needs to relax better.
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Race Nine (17:26) : The Summer Series Handicap (84) 1800m:
Back Me: 4 Siegestor (Best Odds: $5.00) toughed it out best to win at Moonee Valley, and the effort was pretty good considering he had to sprint off a dawdling tempo. Has plenty of upside and should prove hard to beat
Big Danger: 5 Prix D’Or (Best Odds: $6.50) was given a 12/10 by Jye McNeil to win two back, then McNeil produced something similar to win on the horse seven days later, and there was a bit of authority about that second win. Harder here, but he hasn’t raced better, and deserves a crack at this level.
Roughie: 1 Azurite (Best Odds: $7.00) made his debut in that race Siegestor saluted, and while he only ran fourth, his last 100-200m was excellent, hitting the line with real purpose. He will eat up the Flemington 1800m, Oliver remains on and he gets a 2kg weight swing on the winner here.
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BEST BET: Race Eight Number 9 Camdus
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 7 Pattern
VALUE: Race Seven Number 2 Iconic
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 7
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8
Leg Three: 9
Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 5, 9
$50 Investment= 166.66% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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