3/5/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Warrnambool, Brierly Steeplechase day

The iconic Warrnambool Carnival kicks off this Tuesday, headlined by the Brierly (3450m). The weather is overcast, the track is soft (6) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Brierly Steeplechase 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Brierly Steeplechase

6 Portland Jimmy (Bet Now: $1.90) is short enough, but really, his flat form combined with strong hurdle trial efforts, should see him win. Patrick Payne trains with gun Kiwi hoop Aaron Kuru to steer, and he was one of the more impressive trial winners from the session last week, jumping cleanly from the front, and with his flat speed, he should win.

4 Lord Pierro (Bet Now: $10.00) is a threat if the fav is off his game. Ran in the 2700m race on Stawell Cup Day and was far from disgraced in defeat when fifth. Looked sharp over the jumps in a trial win last week and with the claim, he does command some level of respect if the fav is not 100%.

8 The Beehive (Bet Now: $16.00) is a coming maiden hurdle winner. Doubt it comes here, but he’ll be on speed and giving a sight. Ran in a solid maiden hurdle at Hamilton last start and battled away pretty well when third Blenheim Palace. Don’t think he wins, but one for exotics.

1 Beefeater (Bet Now: $5.50) for me. That combo again of Payne/Kuru to the fore with a very capable flat horse. He makes his jumps debut and he was really impressive in a trial win here last week, jumping beautifully and his flat speed was there for all to see. Normal luck, clean jumping and he should be winning.

4 Jeune Elvis (Bet Now: $19.00) has home track advantage and looks prepped right up for this. He was good from the back at Penola last start over the mile in a good effort given he’s better suited over further. Led throughout and was strong in a trial win here last week. He’ll run a positive race.

3 Gravistas (Bet Now: $12.00), really, has done nothing since arriving from the UK, but perhaps jumping might be his go. Safely held by Jeune Elvis in that trial mentioned, but the last 150m and the last jump, he did close off with purpose in a good piece of work. He’s a first four contender.

4 Killourney (Bet Now: $1.75) is the good thing of the Carnival. He makes his jumps debut for Paul Preusker and his trials suggest he could be a star over the jumps. Ran at Flemington on Anzac Day and didn’t disgrace himself in defeat behind Steel Prince. Trialled two days later here and gee he moved smoothly. Genuine $1.30-$1.40 chance so happy to lock in $1.90 in early markets.

6 Rider In The Snow (Bet Now: $4.80) is definitely a market watch. Symon Wilde trained former European that has been solid on the flat. I’m on guard with him because he was very quiet in a trial here last week, beaten around 20 lengths, but was there to stretch the legs. Kuru booked, wouldn’t shock me if he was $5-$3.50, but he would need to improve to beat Killourney IMO.

3 Historic (Bet Now: $11.00) will get better as the season goes on. He’s a quality steeplechaser that is trying to break the maiden tag over the smaller jumps for Steve Pateman, second up after a prep run on the flat here in a Highweight when down the track. Doubt he wins, but a first four contender.

5 Harbin (Bet Now: $5.50) is the first runner for Lindsey Smith this Carnival and he looks really hard to beat. Debuted on Terang Cup Day and it was a “How you going?” run. Missed the kick, ridden cold and finished off powerfully, producing good late splits. He’s talented and should take beating.

2 Coastal Town (Bet Now: $11.00) commands respect. Symon Wilde trains and we know his stable fires for this Carnival. This guy resumed in a 1000m maiden at Warracknabeal and was good late from the back over an unsuitable trip. Like him up to 1200m and should be strong late.

9 Mister Businessman (Bet Now: $9.50) is a son of Von Costa De Hero for Peter Chow that is on debut. He had a 1000m jumpout here when leading throughout, beating up stablemates, but looked to go about his business pretty well on speed. Good depth to this race, but he can measure up.

8 Dusse (Bet Now: $5.00) on top. Lloyd Kennewell trained daughter of Rubick that is on debut off the back of four jumpouts, winning her last two, and she has moved very well on speed, most notably the second last jumpout. The raced brigade, as a whole, are thin, plus the stable finds J Kah, which is good enough for me.

Back to 1000m is a big tick for 1 Over Shady (Bet Now: $8.00). Ran over 1200m in The Showdown and he tried hard from near the speed, but six furlongs just found them out but far from disgraced in defeat when sixth. Back to 1000m yes, back in grade/depth yes and Hugh Bowman booked, he can bounce back.

2 Soju Session (Bet Now: $11.00) is another good with race experience and I do think back to 1000m suits. He also ran in The Showdown and the six furlong at that level just found him out when down the track. Better placed here and for a stable that can surprise, he’s in the mix.

Fascinating edition of the Brierly. The track downgrades from Friday onwards is leaning me towards 5 Vanguard (Bet Now: $2.80). He gave them a spanking in a Hamilton steeple last time out, jumping cleanly when it mattered and he made a mess of them. Beaten 100m+ in a trial by Britannicus here last week but with a genuine wet track, Vanguard is the one.

4 Valac (Bet Now: $2.90) could be the next big thing of jumps racing. Lot of arrogance about his steeple win at Pakenham last start, so much so that Aaron Mitchel almost threw the race away by easing him down to a walk the final 50m. He won’t mind give in the track and has been near faultless over the jumps since he began his jumping career.

6 Magnanimous Man (Bet Now: $13.00) is capable of being dangerous at a price. Resumed in a 2700m flat race at Stawell in what was a prep run for him to get ready for the jumping, finishing down the track as expected. Trialled well here last week and stable gets gun hoop Aaron Kuru.

9 Cadbury Castle (Bet Now: $3.60) is a Stakes class horse in waiting I feel. It can be silly getting carried away with a 2400m maiden win on a bog at Geelong, but he won by seven, and really, if he straight and true, he wins by double that. I do think if the Spring was further down the track, he could measure up in some nice races, so with that, I’m clearly in his corner.

8 Boyszee (Bet Now: $2.60) is favourite in early betting for this race and on paper, you can understand why given he ran at the same meeting as Cadbury Castle over the same trip ran much quicker time, plus has the Maher/Eustace polish and is at a suitable trip. The upside isn’t there compared to Cadbury Castle, but he’ll run a big race.

6 Sign Seal Deliver (Bet Now: $17.00) won this race last year…is he going as well 12 months on? I’d say no, but having winning experience at this track in this kind of ground is a big tick. Ran in the Stawell Cup last start and actually did a good job to stick on like he did after looking like he’d run last at one point. Fitter, up in trip, one for exotics.

4 Think N Fly (Bet Now: $4.40) is a great each way bet here I feel. Ripping horse for Tom Dabernig who doesn’t win out of turn, but is rarely far away, and that consistency was rewarded with an all the way win at Caulfield last start, aided by a peach front running steer from Josh Richards, who rides front runners as good as anyone in the state IMO. He’ll lead this field up and take beating.

2 Bermadez (Bet Now: $4.00) looks suited up in trip for Michael Moroney. Was 1600m back to 1400m last time out in the Victoria Handicap at Caulfield and he ran a shocker after seemingly getting a good run in transit on speed. Olly rides the horse better than anyone, he’ll sit outside Think N Fly and look to wear him down late.

I’ve seen worse $51 shots than 7 Indiana Lily (Bet Now: $41.00). She resumed last Saturday in the VOBIS Mile in an on speed dominated affair, plus on dry ground, fresh, she just had no hope, so forget she went around. Much better set up this time around, and she’s a swimmer, so the wetter the better.

This market seems to have Blinkers towards the locals, and with that, there is good value around them. One horse that I feel is a crazy price is 1 Easy Beast (Bet Now: $21.00) at $21/$26+. His last run came on March 13 in the Echuca Cup and he ran a beauty in defeat, finishing third to Not To Be Mist and Hi Stranger, two Stakes class horses. He is most effective at 1200m, looked strong in a recent tick over jumpout, he swims, he has class…I’m stunned he is the price he is. I’d have him second favourite.

7 Stripped Back (Bet Now: $2.50) is the favourite and probably a deserving one given we don’t know where his ceiling is, and there was a bit of quality about his win on Terang Cup Day when leading throughout and giving nothing else a look in. Good test here, but think he can measure up.

3 Shotmaker (Bet Now: $7.50) has the quality to be around the mark. He comes here with fresh legs, having not raced since March 9 at Sandown when racing over 1400m and finding a decent race, beaten five lengths by The Garden. Races best with fresh legs and with Bowman booked, he’s right in the mix.

18 Spinning (Bet Now: $6.00) is a quality filly for Tom Dabernig that resumes. This girl showed good promise when last in work and actually ran well at metro level. Blinkers on first time for the return signals intent and she won the jumpout mentioned above that Sweet Mary but to my eye, Sweet Mary looked to go much better yet is nearly triple the price. But she’ll run well for a very much astute camp.

10 Home Rule (Bet Now: $4.00) had been knocking on the door to win a race this time in and it finally came at Geelong last start on the bog track, lapping up the conditions to win and win nicely. Has home track advantage and John Allen does seem to click with him, and he sticks. Key threat.

4 Nerone (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Richard Laming trained gelding that bounced back to winning form with a dominant win at 58 grade at Mornington last time out where he had to lump 64.5kg but really, he just had too much class for them. Tumbles in weight as he gets back up to 64 grade, but he’s tough and will be strong late.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 4 Killourney

NEXT BEST: Raec Seven Number 9 Cadbury Castle

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 1 Easy Beast

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 8, 9

Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 7

Leg Three: 1, 3, 7, 16

Leg Four: 4, 10, 14, 18, 19

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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