Eight races will be run and won Sandown Lakeside this Wednesday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (15:05) Ladbrokes Switch Hcp 1200m
I’ll go with 1 Montana Flash (Bet Now: $2.50) in the opener but not a great deal of confidence. Think the stable switch to Melbourne is ideal to get away from the wet tracks in Sydney. Whilst he has been racing okay, just hasn’t quite measured up to those going towards the Slipper, so he’s got the right form to win. Could I take short odds? No.
6 Tiz My Bay (Bet Now: $4.00) is the one with race experience and fitness on her side. Was on her at big odds last time out at Pakenham and she worked to the line pretty well I thought behind La Rocque. Run prior, her debut, her late splits behind Arcaded were strong, so she commands respect.
3 Dawn Hunter (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Sebring colt for the Price/Kent team that is on debut. He jumped out at Caulfield just over two weeks ago and looked to about his business quite nicely when third, pushed out but responded well. Market will be interesting with him but think he goes okay, certainly good enough to go close here.
Race 2. (15:40) Thoroughbred Club (bm64) 1600m
6 Derive (Bet Now: $4.80) is heading in the right direction. Ellerton/Zahra filly that ran two weeks ago on the Hillside course where she got control on speed pretty comfortably and if you were on, it was a pretty painless watch as she drew clear late in the straight under Jamie Kah. Bit of depth to this line up but she’s got upside to come.
5 Yulong Code (Bet Now: $2.30) is the interesting horse. Peter Moody trained colt that resumed in that brutally run Autumn Stakes won by Poland, a race where the market is not liking at all. Yulong Code was solid in defeat and what I like is that the stable has given him extra time to recover from that gut buster.
7 Rousseau (Bet Now: $5.50) has a SA Derby look about him. He’s progressive and will stay. Just remaining at the mile is the query with him but he broke the maiden in impressive fashion at the trip at Pakenham last time and was strong late. If this is a truly run mile, I think he comes into the mix.
Race 3. (16:15) Ladbrokes Back Yourself (bm70) 2100m
This looks like a race where the best turn of foot will win it and I think that is with 2 Queen Guinevere (Bet Now: $3.00) for Shane Fliedner. Ran over 2200m at Bendigo last time out and worked home pretty well from the back when second to Ripcord. Go back five runs, she ran a tick over 34 for her last 600m at Bendigo behind a then in form Coin Collector. That late speed is superior to this lot.
1 Cake Walker (Bet Now: $5.00) can be a big improver here. Forgive her last start effort at Terang. Had to lump 63kg over the mile and she tried hard, but couldn’t finish the race off with the big weight. That was a 58 race. Now into a 70 and gets significant weight relief, plus is now at a trip she likes.
5 Evader (Bet Now: $5.50) should appreciate a rise in trip for Jamie Edwards. Resumed over the mile at Pakenhan where she was never really a winning threat and was one of the first off the bit, but she stayed on and was good to the line and through it, suggesting a rise in distance suits next time, which is what she gets here.
Race 4. (16:50) Clanbrooke Racing (bm64) 1200m
Good little test here for 10 Home Rule (Bet Now: $3.60) but I think he’s up to it. Maddie Raymond trained three year old that steps up to six furlongs after resuming over 1000m at the Bool, leading throughout and he was sharp in winning, running good late splits, which is something they didn’t do for the meeting. Should lead this field up and prove hard to run down.
1300m back to 1200m is interesting with 7 Anglian (Bet Now: $7.00) but this son of Brazen Beau does appear to have a decent engine under the hood. Big win from him at Bendigo last time. He was near quite a strong speed and was there to be run down, but he found plenty under pressure and was too good. Harder here, but draws soft and will be strong late.
1 And Beyond (Bet Now: $3.50) is a big query here. Unbeaten galloper from Tassie making his mainland debut for the Hanson team. Visually, has been impressive in all three career outings. Has he beaten much? No. Has he run time? No. But, you don’t know how good a horse is til they are beaten.
Race 5. (17:25) Ladbrokes Easy Form (bm64) 1200m
I’m with 2 Charm School (Bet Now: $3.40), resuming for the Freedman stable. Had a two run Autumn prep last prep, debuting with a win here before starting favourite in the Breeders Stakes at Morphettville when down the track behind Ecumenical. Finds a suitable race to resume in and her recent Flemington jumpout was more than encouraging.
9 Meltdown (Bet Now: $9.00) should land in a plum spot from the good draw. This talented filly resumed at Sale where she had a suck run just behind the speed before getting clear air in the straight and finishing best to wear down Glamdam. Has upside to come and will be strong off a genuine tempo.
3 Diamondesque (Bet Now: $10.00) can be an improver at odds. Team Snowden trained filly that found them a bit sharp first up over 1000m before going to the Typhoon Tracy where she was far from disgraced in defeat I thought behind Macroura. Better suited at this level and is a knockout chance.
Race 6. (18:00) Tile Importer (bm64) 1600m
I’m with 1 Bondi Sands (Bet Now: $15.00), making his Australian debut for Danny O’Brien. Interesting to note he had a prep in the Spring without racing. Has come back with one jumpout under the belt and though he ran last, he looked to move quite well. Last start was a rating 85 winner, so he’s got plenty of room in the ratings points compared to most here, who have found their mark.
9 Eagles Crag (Bet Now: $2.00) is a big watch here. Made his Australian debut over the mile at Pakenham and made them look second rate, which they probably are to be fair, and the horse he beat, Mista Sizzle, was beaten in a weak maiden at Kilmore last week, so the form is suspect, but you’d have to think there is upside to come.
5 Sky Horse (Bet Now: $5.50) can win this. Was on her back when she resumed over 1400m at Caulfield several weeks ago. Just lacked a turn of foot to go with them but she was more than sound late behind Silent Sovereign. Fitter and up in trip for this mare, with upside to come, think she’s hard to beat.
Race 7. (18:30) Ladbrokes Odds Boost (bm84) 1600m
3 Masaff (Bet Now: $9.50) is one of the better gambles on the card IMO. Chris Waller trained gelding that resumes. He teased early on in the Spring but by the end, he looked a tired horse and was looking for the paddock. Loved his recent Flemington jumpout and potentially stalks the likely leader Surreal Image, getting the suck run and proving hard to beat.
2 Mystery Shot (Bet Now: $4.80) looks to be back on track somewhat. Too bad to be true first up down the straight before going to Caulfield where he was off the speed and chased pretty well in defeat behind the in form Regardsmaree. Fitter, up to the mile and with the claim, he gets in pretty well.
Very interesting that 12 Surreal Image (Bet Now: $35.00) backs up from Friday night at the Valley. Just forget he went around. Went way too keen in front, pulling his head off and was a beaten horse on the turn. Gets in very light after the claim and if he can relax in front, he’ll give a sight at odds.
Race 8. (19:00) Mrc Members (bm78) 1400m
Each way, don’t think you can go wrong backing 1 Sonaree (Bet Now: $16.00). He’s a ripper for the Hayes/Dabernig team that puts himself on speed and tries hard. That was the case first up at Caulfield where he was quite game in defeat I thought behind Regardsmaree. Should lead this field up and run quite a bold race.
Mentioned in the first race how well the John Sadler stable is going so respecting 3 Beehunter (Bet Now: $6.50). He is first up, having not raced since December 12 at Flemington when far from disgraced in defeat behind Mr Money Bags in what turned out to be a pretty strong race time wise. Recent jumpouts have been solid and like that Olly is booked.
2 Price Range (Bet Now: $27.00) is the big watch here. He trials like a Group l horse but runs like an average horse. That’s why I think getting away from 84 grade and dropping back a bit in depth to this kind of race can see some improvement from him. Far from disgraced behind Regardsmaree last time out, and that form is very good for a race like this.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 3 Masaff
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 2 Queen Guinevere
LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 1 Sonaree
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 2, 3, 9, 11
Leg Two: 1, 5, 6, 9
Leg Three: 3
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 9, 10
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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