The stand alone at Hawkesbury this Saturday is the best in Australia when it comes to non metro Saturday programs. Nine races, five of which at Stakes level. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (11:55) : Richmond Club Provincial Stayers Handicap (85) 2100m:
Back Me: 8 Napoleon (Bet Now: $15.00) was just fair in his first two runs back from a spell before being sent back to the trials here where he was an eye catcher. Then ran over the mile here in a slowly run race and closed off okay late in the piece. Suited up to 2100m, has run well here and he does have plenty of upside.
Big Danger: 6 Great Glen (Bet Now: $3.60) is a former UK galloper that has been quite good in two Victorian runs for Chris Waller, the latest coming over the Sandown mile where he closed off nicely to run fifth to the in form Bel Burgess. Crying out for further, which he gets here and he has the Waller polish with upside.
Long Shot: 1 My Giuliano (Bet Now: $8.00) could be an improver here for Chris Waller. Resumed a tick over two weeks back at Warwick Farm where he was resuming at a distance short of his best and just lacked the speed behind Brigadoon Rise. Does run well second up and quickly to 2100m looks ideal. Class wise, he’s the best horse in the race.
Race Two (12:30) : TAB Clarendon Stakes 1300m:
Back Me: 1 Serena Bay (Bet Now: $2.10) is a smart filly for the Waterhouse/Bott team that looks the one to beat here. Gave them a nice licking first up at Goulburn before being well backed in the Percy Sykes where she had a dream off the pace and for a few strides looked the winner but had to settle for a close up third to Shoals. This looks a considerable drop in depth and she looks the leader.
Long Shot: 4 Icon Of Dubai (Bet Now: $3.80) is a well bred colt that trialled up well for Team Snowden prior to debuting on Easter Monday where he had a nice sit just off the speed and tried hard when finishing sixth to the handy Godolphin youngster Regent. He should come on from that outing and the bigger track will be ideal.
Long Shot: 8 Fifth Affair (Bet Now: $9.00) is on the quick back up here after racing at Randwick on Anzac Day where she looked all over a winner but was nabbed right on the peg by High Low Bet. On her home track and must have pleased the stable to back her up so quickly. Outside the top tip, this does look a thin race.
Race Three (13:05) : TAB Highway Handicap (Class 3) 1100m:
Back Me: 2 Ruthless Agent (Bet Now: $4.40) just picks himself here I think. Quality three year old that resumes for Kurt Goldman after a pretty impressive opening prep, which ended with a gritty third in a 1800m Highway at Randwick, a race where the form has held up very nicely. 1100m is short of his best here, but he will be strong late and he does have class/quality about him.
Big Danger: 7 Still Undaunted (Bet Now: $9,50) ran in a 1200m Highway at Randwick a fortnight back and he looked to be going sweetly just off the speed but once Tommy asked for the big effort, the wheels started spinning. He will be much better on top of the ground here and the win prior at Scone was enormous.
Long Shot: 3 Moss My Name (Bet Now: $5.00) pulled off a plunge to win a Highway first up last time in and she is looking to do something similar here. hasn’t raced since mid September when finishing midfield behind the talented Hanwritten in a 1000m Highway at Randwick. Has won two trials in very sharp time, so to my eye, she is wound up to win fresh.
Race Four (13:40) : Hawkesbury XXXX Gold Rush 1100m:
Back Me: 2 Felines (Bet Now: $4.60) is a classy mare for Kris Lees who drops massively in grade after contesting the Galaxy last start at Rosehill where she was far from disgraced I thought when fifth to Russian Revolution. That form has been franked via English and Jungle Edge. Doesn’t really need franking when she drops to this level. The horse to beat.
Big Danger: 1 That’s A Good (Bet Now: $5.00) Idea is a quality gelding that is first up here for the Snowden camp. Really good sprinter when he is on track and gets a firm surface, so perhaps he gets conditions to suit here. His two trials leading in have been quite encouraging and he is a two time first up winner. Think he will go close here with the right run.
Long Shot: 3 Clearly Innocent (Bet Now: $6.50) is a very intriguing runner here. On his day, he is one of the most exciting gallopers in Australia but after a horrible Spring and the stable switch, who knows what we will get. In saying that, he did trial up well recently in winning at Wyong and running solid time. Not the greatest of fresh records, but first up for the new stable, he has to be respected.
Race Five (14:15) : Blakes Marine Handicap (85) 1300m:
Back Me: 3 Liapari (Bet Now: $8.00) on top for me here. This bloke was very good during the Summer, ending his prep at Flemington over the mile with an outstanding effort against the bias behind Show A Star. Resumes at 1300m here off the back of a lovely trial at Randwick and despite 1300m being short of his best, he does have residual fitness.
Big Danger: 1 Better Not Blue (Bet Now: $6.50) has been outstanding in two runs this time, starting off in a heat of the Provincial Championship when an eye catching second to Noble Joey before working home with purpose in the Final behind Maryore. Third up, so he should be ready fitness wise and he looks to get the sweet run here.
Long Shot: 12 Voilier (Bet Now: $16.00) is a non winner but he could improve here on the firmer surface. Last couple of efforts have been disappointing but he has raced on very heavy/shifty tracks, the latest behind So Willie at the mile. Back to 1300m suits, and though drawn wide, I think he should be included in exotics.
Race Six (14:55) : 2017 Godolphin Crown 1300m:
Back Me: 2 Artistry (Bet Now: $3.00) looks one of the better bets on the program. Loved her effort last time out in the Sapphire (1200m) at Randwick. She isn’t a wet track horse yet she kept surging under Bowman to run a very game second to the swimmer Secret Agenda. Much better on top of the ground here, and she does look thrown in at the weights.
Big Danger: 8 Daysee Doom (Bet Now: $3.50) is a quality mare for Ron Quinton that has been given a five week break since running in the Emancipation at Rosehill where she looked all over a winner but had to settle for a narrow second to Zanbagh. No trials since, so fitness levels are somewhat unknown, but she has the quality to overcome that.
Long Shot: Jason Coyle had a couple of mares nominated but will have a sole runner in 5 Slightly Sweet (Bet Now: $34.00). She had three runs during the Spring and all of which were hot races. For the most part, sh was far from disgraced, including a fifth to subsequent Newmarket winner Redkirk Warrior. Trials leading in have been good and she will be flashing late.
Race Seven (15:35) : Blacktown Workers Club Hawkesbury Guineas 1400m:
Back Me: Have to forgive 11 Prompt Response (Bet Now: $6.00) another chance here. Bias and fitness beat her first up in the PJ Bell before going to the James Carr where that sticky/shifty track was not her go at all when fourth to Raiment. Third up now, so she should be ready fitness wise, she maps well and the Hawkesbury 1400m here looks perfect.
Big Danger: Either there was no bias at Canterbury on Monday or 5 Calanda (Bet Now: $4.20) is a high class animal. Make your own mind up. He was first up, three wide no cover, a spot where nothing figured in the finish throughout the finish, yet he kept finding and finding and surged hard to get the win. Did that effort burst him to produce the second up syndrome? Time will tell.
Long Shot: 8 Star Of Monsoon (Bet Now: $18.00), on potential, is one of the best horses in the race but he just never can quite put it together. Two runs back from a break have been ordinary, but he is one horse for sure that will love getting back onto a firmer surface, and his price does look quite silly for a horse who is Stakes performed.
Race Eight (16:15) : Livamol Hawkesbury Gold Cup 1600m:
Back Me: 1 Mighty Lucky (Bet Now: $16.00) is an absolute ripper for the Fred Cowell yard. He was against it first up in the Hall Mark but for a $101 shot, he ran an absolute beauty when closing off to run fifth to Redzel. One of only a couple of horses throughout the program that made ground. He’ll take some beating here with natural improvement.
Big Danger: 16 Duca Valentinois (Bet Now: $6.50) can be hard to trust, but I think he is a different horse this time in. His trials were much sharper and the first up effort at Randwick was a beauty given he was up near the speed, working, yet fought on strongly, only to be bloused late by Kellyville Flyer, who found the fast lane out wide. Can run well second up and can’t be ignored off the fresh effort.
Long Shot: 14 Ruling Dynasty (Bet Now: $17.00) is a very good horse when he puts his mind to it, and I saw enough first up to suggest he could be set for a fruitful prep. Resumed over 1400m at Randwick,a distance clearly short of his best, but he finished off nicely late behind Kellyville Flyer. Fast run mile will suit him perfectly and he is a second up winner.
Race Nine (16:50) : All State Shopfitting Handicap (78) 1500m:
Back Me: Giving 2 Broadside (Bet Now: $7.50) another look here. He was very good in a couple of runs in Sydney during the Spring, and was tipped out with an eye towards possibly the Brisbane Carnival. Resumed over the mile at Warwick Farm where most horses really struggled on that heavy track, and he was one of them. Firmer track here for him and maps very well. Think he can bounce back and run much better.
Big Danger: 5 So Willie (Bet Now: $10.00) had good market support when resuming over the mile at Warwick Farm in the race mentioned above and despite being first up, he really toughed it out strongly nearer the inside and finished best in a close go. He does have a tidy record second up, and he really should have natural improvement. Definitely including him in the numbers.
Long Shot: 9 Louie Sea Kay (Bet Now: $12.00) is a talented galloper for the Gwenda Markwell who closed off nicely first up in the Kembla/Goulburn Provincial Qualifier behind eventual winner Maryore before going to Randwick where he looked to race a touch flat behind Untamed Diamond. Be wary of the third up bounce back.
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BEST BET: Race Three Number 2 Ruthless Agent
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 2 Artistry
VALUE: Race Eight Number 1 Mighty Lucky
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 8
Leg Two: 4, 5, 8, 11, 12
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 14, 16
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 9
$50 Investment= 13.88% of the dividend if successful
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