Caulfield back ups for the fourth Saturday in a row this weekend where it is Anniversary Vase Day. The weather is overcast, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out twelve metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:10) : Ern Jensen Funerals Handicap 1800m:
Back Me: 2 Fomo (Bet Now: $8.50) is a talented colt for the Busuttin/Young camp that resumed over 1400m at Cranbourne under the lights last Friday night where he defied a betting drift to score a very good on speed win, albeit narrowly, but he was first up and that track was testing. Quickly up to 1800m suits, maps well and has upside.
Big Danger: 6 Winkelmann (Bet Now: $5.50) hasn’t raced for over three weeks since racing over the mile at Pakenham where she came with a well timed run under Damian Lane to round up her rivals and get a nice win on the board against the older horses. That effort tells me that the 1800m will be no issue here and stable are in form.
Long Shot: 8 White Lady (Bet Now: $15.00) is a progressive filly for the Mick Price yard who toughed it out really strongly to win the maiden over the mile at Pakenham last time out where she had a charmed run behind the speed and probably hit the front a tad early but kept finding. Up to 1800m is ideal, she has upside and is bred to handle the going/trip.
Race Two (12:45) : Sky High Mt Dandenong Handicap (84) 2000m:
Back Me: 4 Hursley (Bet Now: $6.50) is a nightmare to trust, but he is absolutely bursting to win a race and he gets his chance here. Should have bolted in two back when a narrow second to Aloft before backing up a week later and he just got a mile back in the run when second to Duke Of Ellington. Got a great record at Caulfield and the big key here is that he gets a significant weight drop.
Big Danger: 11 Odeon (Bet Now: $3.60) does look one of the hardest to beat here. Comes through the Port Adelaide Guineas (1800m) a fortnight back where he was given a near perfect steer by Jamie Mott, and to my eye, he had clear running in enough time to get the job done but he had to settle for a narrow second. Confident that he’ll handle the 2000m here and rates highly.
Long Shot: 3 Zahspeed (Bet Now: $17.00) has been pretty good in two runs back from a break for Danny O’Brien. Attempted to lead all the way over 1800m here three weeks back and gave a good kick but had to settle for third to the handy Life Less Ordinary. Third up at 2000m looks ideal and he maps well.
Race Three (13:20) : No Fuss Events Hire Handicap (78) 1200m:
Back Me: 4 Baby Don’t Cry (Bet Now: $13.00) is a talented mare for the Widdison camp who resumed with a brilliant win at Bendigo before being sent to Warwick Farm where she was in the quicksand near the inside and couldn’t finish off. Third up now, so she should about be ready fitness wise and this is a very winnable race.
Big Danger: 5 Cosmic Lights (Bet Now: $8.00) is a classy animal that resumes for the Peter Morgan. Created quite the impression in three runs last time in. Barnstorming first up win at Bendigo before going to the Standish where he didn’t handle the straight course behind Odyssey Moon. Then went to the VOBIS Gold Star at the Valley where he ran second to Burning Front. Trial win at Cranbourne was sharp and he flies fresh.
Long Shot: 6 Dane Thunder (Bet Now: $9.50) had good late market support when resuming over 1300m at Sandown on Easter Monday and you could make a case he should have just about won the race. Didn’t get much room in the straight when appearing to have plenty to offer. Goes really well second up and has performed okay previously at Caulfield.
Race Four (13:56) : Changing Places Real Estate Handicap 1100m:
Back Me: 2 Moonlites Choice (Bet Now: $3.30) is a Stakes class filly who would be clearly on top had she been stepping up in trip. Resumed over 1100m here a fortnight back and was excellent late in the piece, warming up over the final 150m in restricted room when fourth to Merriest. She’ll be strong again late. Just think she’s looking for further.
Big Danger: 4 Snitty Kitty (Bet Now: $4.60) did a really good job to beat the older horses first up at Yarra Valley before racing in that Merriest race mentioned above where she copped pressure on speed and fought on gamely, only to be nabbed near the peg by that runner. Gets down in the weights again and draws the paint.
Long Shot: 5 Soviet Secret (Bet Now: $13.00) is a talented filly for the Pritchard-Gordon camp and is much better than what her record reads. Resumed in the Merriest race here where she did a bit of work to get near the speed and just punctured late to run seventh, beaten three lengths. I think she is much better when ridden with a sit, so from the good draw here, if that eventuates, she’ll take some beating.
Race Five (14:35) : Thoroughbred Club Cup 1200m:
Back Me: 1 Doubt I’m Dreaming (Bet Now: $1.55)looks a standout to my eye. Very smart colt for John McArdle that absolutely toyed with them on debut at the Valley in the St Albans and won like a potential Group l horse. Trialled sensationally last week at Cranbourne and I think he will be even better on the bigger track here.
Big Danger: 4 Seized (Bet Now: $7.50) is on the seven day back up for John Sadler after racing in the VOBIS Sires here last Saturday where he was unlucky not to win given he got a mile back in the run, further back than anticipated, and charged late to run second to Pure Scot. Like he is on the back up and draws to sit handy to the speed.
Long Shot: 5 Indernile (Bet Now: $14.00) was highly talked up by the stable in the Autumn as a Blue Diamond contender and while he didn’t quite measure up, I thought he ran a couple of ripping races. Looks to have come on based from what I’ve seen at the jump outs, and I think if the fav is off his game, this could be the value.
Race Six (15:15) : Next Payments Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 4 Leotie (Bet Now: $10.00)is a high class filly for the Henry Dwyer who should be forgiven for her first up failure down the Flemington straight behind Hear The Chant given she didn’t pull up 100% and I don’t think the straight is her go. Much better suited around the bend, and at Caulfield. Last time she was at the short course, she swept past subsequent Group l winner I Am A Star
Big Danger: Really good to see 8 Wise Hero (Bet Now: $4.00) back at the races. Quality three year old resuming for John Price after an exciting first prep, where he put together a couple of outstanding wins before going to Pakenham Cup Day where he was on the seven day turnaround and back in trip, and he looked a tired horse. Trialled brilliantly leading up to his return and he maps well here.
Long Shot: 10 Bord De Gain (Bet Now: $13.00) is a winner of both career outings and to the eye he has been quite impressive each start. The latest came at Bendigo (Metro) when coming with a well timed run to get the job done in a pretty strong three year a old race, a race that has held up nicely as a form reference. Tougher here, but I think he can measure up.
Race Seven (15:15) : LU Simon Builders Handicap 1100m:
Back Me: 10 Grey Street (Bet Now: $4.20) chased Miss Vista hard first up and looked for a moment she was going to pick up the speedy mare, but just needed one more stride. Gets a 3.5kg weight pull on that mare here and draws to get a lovely run near the pace. Pretty confident she can turn the tables.
Back Me: 6 Miss Vista (Bet Now: $2.25) is an absolute speed demon for the George Osborne camp whose only defeat came here when she was held back to the field. Nah ah, not her go. Let her roll at her own speed, which is what Linda Meech did here first up and the mare got the job done. 1100m is as far as she wants it, but if she can lead and dominate, she’ll take some running down.
Long Shot: 3 Aegean Sea (Bet Now: $16.00) is the big watch here. Former Clarry Conners trained mare that is now with Danny O’Brien. Hasn’t raced since the Oakleigh Plate (1100m) where she was clearly outclassed behind Sheidel in a hot race. Switched stables and trialled up really nicely I thought a couple of weeks back at Cranbourne. If she can get on speed without doing much work, she’ll take some beating.
Race Eight (16:30) : Thoroughbred Club 50th Year In 2018 Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: 7 Whistle Baby (Bet Now: $4.80) is bursting to win a Stakes race and she gets her chance here. Ran in the Distaff here last Saturday where she looked all over a winner but had to settle for a close second to French Emotion. She has had the two hard 1400m runs under the belt, she draws well, on the minimum..ticks alot of boxes.
Big Danger: 4 Zebulon (Bet Now: $5.50) is the big watch here. Hasn’t raced for 12 months since raking out the City Of Adelaide on the Parks track where he sat wide throughout yet ambled up like Winx and spanked them by four without being fully extended. Trialled very nicely behind Super Cash and I think he is one to not put a line through because he is high class.
Long Shot: 2 Star Exhibit (Bet Now: $7.50) is a class animal from WA making his Victorian debut here so it will be very interesting to see how he measures up here. Perth Cup winner who is a 2000m+ horse, but he certainly has the class/quality to figure here and he is a two time first up winner. Watch the market and see what it does with him.
Race Nine (17:05) : Treasury Wine Estates Handicap (90) 1600m:
Back Me: 11 Fastnet Latina (Bet Now: $2.05) is a ripper for Archie Alexander and looks the one to beat here for sure. He ran over the mile at Morphettville last time out where he was given a 12/10 steer by Jordan Childs and once the gun apprentice gave him clear air, he pounced and put the race to bed quickly. This is his toughest test to date here, but I am confident he can measure up.
Big Danger: 9 Curragh (Bet Now: $3.80) is a horse in ripping form at the moment for the Busuttin/Young yard. Got the verdict in good style two back at Ballarat before racing at this track/distance where he had a soft run just off the speed and chased hard but couldn’t quite reel in Sadaqa. He drops a bit in depth yet only rises 1kg. Ticks alot of boxes.
Long Shot: 4 Lord Durante (Bet Now: $26.00) could the smokey here at odds. He is a pest to follow/tip/back, but he is capable on his day as we saw on Manikato night. Ran in the Sadaqa race where he had market support at odds but flopped badly. He can be ridden on speed and I think if that happens here, he’ll get a soft lead, and rail out 12m, it will be no disadvantage.
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BEST BET: Race Five Number 1 Doubt I’m Dreaming
NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 11 Fastnet Latina
VALUE: Race One Number 2 Fomo
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 4, 8, 9, 10
Leg Two: 2, 3, 6, 10, 11
Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 7, 8, 10
Leg Four: 4, 6, 9, 11
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