The Rosehill part of the Sydney Autumn Carnival concludes this Saturday with a Group l double header being the drawcard, the Tancred Stakes (2400m) and Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m). The weather is fine, the track is soft (7) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (12:30) Ranvet (bm88) 1400m
Want to give 12 Sausedge (Bet Now: $3.90 TOP ODDS) another chance. Matty Dale trains this mare, who was outstanding in defeat first up in the National Sprint Preview, which ensured she was favourite in the big race during the Canberra Carnival and I thought had every chance, but looking again, just don’t think she let down on wet ground. Back on top of the track, she can bounce back, especially with that turn of foot she has.
10 Royal Celebration (Bet Now: $2.90 TOP ODDS) is racing really well for Ron Quinton. Problem is he can’t crack it for a win. Ran over 1350m here two weeks ago when near the speed throughout and tried very hard but was no match late for all the way winner Positive Peace, who is flying at the moment. He’s knocking on the door and gets a great chance.
3 Hanger (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) rises in depth but he does have some upside to come one would assume. Was only second up in the Echuca Cup last time out and despite being flat footed when the sprint went on, he picked up late and surged hard to get the win. Gets Avdulla on from a good draw and is a winning chance for sure.
Race 2. (13:10) The Schweppervescence 1400m
Fitter and a rise to 1400m are two big ticks for the David Payne trained filly 9 Jemss (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS). Resumed two weeks ago in the Magic Night and really liked the way she finished her race off from the back when a close up third to Thermosphere. Since day one, she has looked a two year old that will appreciate more ground, which she gets here, and is in the right stable.
3 Holyfield (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) is a Maher/Eustace trained colt that looks suited here. Won 2/2 to start the career before going to the VRC Sires where he was one that was part of the carnage halfway in the straight. Was he going well enough to win? I’d say no, but should have finished closer. Gets a soft draw and Aussie Tom to ride.
10 Argentus (Bet Now: $17.00 TOP ODDS) is worth another look. Was good in defeat on debut behind Mamaragan before going to the Pago Pago when wide no cover for the trip and didn’t handle the wet track at all behind Prague. Gets firmer footing here, which I think will really suit him, and up to 1400m, he looks a knockout chance off the debut run.
Race 3. (13:50) Tulloch Stakes 2000m
1 Quick Thinker (Bet Now: $2.60 TOP ODDS) is the interesting one. I thought he was really poor in two runs in NZ to start the prep before going to the Phar Lap where he took on a couple of star fillies in Funstar and Probabeel and was far from disgraced in running third behind those two classy animals. Like him up to 2000m and the depth here is nowhere near as strong.
Keen to see if 6 Pride Of Adelaide (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) can measure up here. Nathan Doyle places his horses superbly but no place to hide with this three year old, who has simply been too good for them at the provincials, the latest seeing him bolt up at Hawkesbury. He’s bred to eat up 2000m and overall, this isn’t a strong race.
2 Fortress Command (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) has promised to be a Derby type since day one. Now he needs to stand up and prove it. Didn’t really come up in the Spring so was given a good long spell and IMO, he’s just needed the two runs back to get up to a decent fitness level. Dodged the Rosehill Guineas to tackle the softer option here and I think, off his 2YO form, he goes awfully close.
Race 4. (14:30) Neville Sellwood Stakes 2000m
Each way for me here in the shape of 6 Mount Tabora (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS). Team Snowden trains this import, who attempted to lead throughout at Randwick four weeks ago and gave a good kick but couldn’t quite finish it off when a close up fourth to Think It Over, who has run well at Stakes level since. Aussie Tom on, should lead, comfortably, and prove hard to run down.
He’s a bludger is 2 Night’s Watch (Bet Now: $3.90 TOP ODDS) but I think he’s knocking on the door to win and back on firmer footing, he can take this out. Comes through the Ajax where on face value, his run was okay behind Imaging, but his splits were very good between the 800m-200m and just knocked up late. Back on top of the ground, think he can run well here.
11 House Of Cartier (Bet Now: $16.00 TOP ODDS) can measure up here for sure. Very unlucky two back at Randwick behind Trumbull before racing over 1350m here two weeks ago where she got back and worked home well late behind dominant winner Positive Peace. Love her up to 2000m, she’s flying I think and can run a positive race at odds.
Race 5. (15:10) Star Kingdom Stakes 1200m
I reckon she’s flying 6 Manicure (Bet Now: $7.00) and am confident she runs well here fresh. James Cummings trained this mare, who won the How Now first up last prep and I think she’s on track to win again first up. Two trials leading in have been excellent and keep in mind she’s done it each time without the blinkers, which are on for race day.
The gate is a potential nightmare but the set up looks ideal for 4 Brave Song (Bet Now: $11.00), who is a classy animal when right and resumes for Team Snowden. Was on the Golden Eagle path but in the lead ups, while he ran well, he didn’t quite measure up. Been given a good break and despite just one trial leading in, he has the set up here to be very dangerous.
10 Diplomatico (Bet Now: $15.00) is the x factor. He was run off his legs first up in the Maurice McCarten but once he balanced up he really finished off with purpose and was excellent in defeat given it was his first run in over 12 months. Second up syndrome? Potentially, but if he improves off that, has to be respected.
Race 6. (15:50) Tancred Stakes 2400m
9 Verry Elleegant (Bet Now: $2.05) looks the one on form. She’s been able to relax in her races, much better than what is normal for her, and last Saturday saw her take up a spot on speed without cover and she didn’t overdo it. That was in the Ranvet and it took a high class animal in Addeybb to beat her. Not fussed about her on dry ground…a tad concerned about the quick back up, has failed once at that scenario, but that was as a 3YO in the Oaks where she was still a baby. Clearly a better horse now, a more relaxed horse.
2 Mustajeer (Bet Now: $8.50) has done little wrong since joining Kris Lees. Looked in a bit of trouble in the Sky High in atrocious conditions but what I liked is that he picked up and surged late in a good effort, albeit well beaten by Master Of Wine. I think firmer footing will suit him, clearly, and up to 2400m is a big, big tick, knowing that this is just about his GF.
4 Southern France (Bet Now: $12.00) is the knockout chance IMO. Classy stayer for the Maher/Eustace team that resumed in the Australian Cup and was far from disgraced in defeat I thought over an unsuitable trip behind Fifty Stars, and of course Regal Power ticked that form off in the All Star Mile. Love him up to 2400m, has upside and class.
Race 7. (16:30) Vinery Stud Stakes 2000m
She’s always looked like a filly that will eat up ground, she’s bred to handle ground…I think only bad luck or an off day sees 1 Funstar (Bet Now: $1.75) getting beat. She’s a star filly that has been outstanding in two runs back from a break, getting pipped near the peg in the Surround first up by Probabeel before getting revenge on that filly in the Phar Lap in a comfortable win. Think she’ll be too good.
2 Probabeel (Bet Now: $4.60) is a brilliant filly for Jamie Richards that was superb in winning the Surround before contesting the Phar Lap on the bottomless track where she looked gone 600m out. But what impressed me and most was that she picked up in the conditions, surged and tried hard to get within 1.3L of Funstar. 2000m is no issue for her IMO. Just not sure she has the brilliance that Funstar has.
4 Fascino (Bet Now: $19.00) looks to be right on track for this race IMO. Two runs back from a break have been good. First up was solid behind stablemate Bonvicini in the Vanity before going to the Kewney and she was a real eye catcher late behind Rubisaki. Has had two runs and now third up, should be hard fit, keen on her running well.
Race 8. (17:10) Emancipation Stakes 1500m
If the Coolmore run hasn’t busted her, I think 13 Sweet Scandal (Bet Now: $18.00) is one of the better gambles on the program. This mare has had no luck via wide gates this prep, the latest being two weeks ago in the Coolmore Classic and really, she did a remarkable job to kick on like she did to run fifth. Back on firmer footing and on speed, she’ll take a power of beating.
6 Noire (Bet Now: $16.00) hasn’t won in a while for Chris Waller but gee she’s going well. No luck in the Guy Walter two back before contesting the Coolmore Classic where she worked home strongly to grab a Group l placing, finishing third to Con Te Partiro. Saves her best for Rosehill and she does look one of the hardest to beat.
14 Positive Peace (Bet Now: $10.00) faces her toughest test to date, but Bjorn Baker has this mare flying. She has won four on the bounce, the latest coming two weeks ago over 1350m when leading throughout on the bog track and giving her rivals a spanking in the process. Looks to land on speed, get a good run and hard to knock a mare in form like her.
Race 9. (17:50) Doncaster Prelude 1500m
14 Dealmaker (Bet Now: $10.00) is in for a good prep I feel. Resumed in the Newmarket at Newcastle where he was back near last in the run and really liked the way he finished his race off when fourth to Special Reward in a very encouraging return. Love him up to 1500m…is he up to this level? Not sure, but the soft gate and upside leans me his way.
3 Cascadian (Bet Now: $5.50) is knocking on the door to win and likely does need to win ensure he is a starter in the Doncaster last Saturday. Well documented what happened in the Liverpool Cup before going to the Ajax two weeks ago where he was tight between runners and I think he resented that and didn’t want to take the narrow run. His best sees him win…is his confidence down from that barging battle two back.
10 Rainbow Thief (Bet Now: $13.00) is the hard fit/in form galloper who is rising in grade and depth. Ran over the mile at Caulfield two weeks ago in what was pretty much a barrier trial, so those from behind had no real chance, including this guy. Liked the way he finished his race off and there are a few question marks around most of these. He might be the sleeper to watch out for.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 1 Funstar
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 9 Verry Elleegant
LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 13 Sweet Scandal
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 9
Leg Two: 1
Leg Three: 6, 8, 10, 13, 14
Leg Four: 3, 10, 14, 15
$50 Investment = 125% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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