27/7/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Morphettville, Lightning Stakes day

Nine races will be run and won at Morphettville on Saturday for Lightning Stakes Day. Weather is fine, track is soft (7) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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4 Kimmorley (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for me but not really a race I want to get involved in. Five weeks between runs for Maddie Raymond since racing over 1800m here when just off the speed and kept finding the line in defeat in a good effort behind Tippa. Like him up in trip and the depth here isn’t as deep IMO.

1 Lottaroc (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for David Noonan and rates as one of the leading contenders. He has won two on the bounce, winning at Warrnambool two back before a strong win at Murray Bridge a fortnight back, stalking the speed before gradually wearing down Ichibansan. No reason why he can’t win again.

6 Chosen Miss (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing for the third Saturday on the bounce. Garret Lynch trained mare that ran last Saturday on the Parks track over 2250m when back off the speed and found the line well enough in defeat when second to Test The Law. Back in trip is interesting but she is a hard fit/in form mare that will be quite strong at the end.

2 Sachem (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is finding it hard to win for Clarken/O’Shea but that said, he is racing really well. He ran over 1400m at Murray Bridge two weeks ago where he got a fair way out of his ground and while he was never threatening to win, he did close off quite well I thought behind Aiguilette. Like him up in trip and this isn’t a deep race.

5 Soames (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. He ran last Saturday over 1250m on the Parks track here. He got back in the run ad did make up solid headway late in the piece without threatening behind noted wet tracker Darceandermill. Can settle closer and still be effective at the end.

3 Pointless Praise (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is three weeks between runs for Team Jolly since racing over 1700m at Gawler where he was second up and still looked quite big in condition, running accordingly I thought when down the track behind Spelman. He should just about be hard fit now and his best is more than good enough to give this a shake.

4 Ichibansan (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is struggling to find a win but that said, he is racing really well for Clarken/O’Shea. He ran over this trip at Murray Bridge two weeks ago when attempting to lead throughout and giving a very solid kick but just didn’t have the finale to put the race to bed when second to Lottaroc. Good track/distance record, so he is one of the hardest to beat.

5 Capricorn Ridge (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes here as a last start winner, winning last Wednesday at Gawler when getting a beaut run in transit near the speed before being clicked up and he was strong to the line in getting the job done. Good test here against likely types, but confident he can measure up.

3 Exalted Ruth (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has run well at the track/distance previously and this isn’t an overly deep contest. She needed the run fresh behind Favourite Child before going to 1550m on the Parks track last Saturday and wasn’t too bad in defeat behind Willybeafactor. Like her up in trip and would be dangerous at odds if this track can dry out.

8 More Sugar (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for me. Three weeks between runs since racing over 1200m at Gawler where she got back to near last in the run and tracked up nicely but she couldn’t quite finish her race off behind in form mare Everglade. Like her up in trip and if she is ridden a pair or two closer, she’ll take beating.

2 France’s Boy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to land on speed and will give a sight I am sure. He ran two weeks back at Murray Bridge when on speed and tried hard but just lacked the class to go with them late in the piece behind Favourite Child. Like him back in grade/depth and with his racing style, he’ll give himself every chance.

3 Fleurieu Flipper (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. He ran over 1400m at Murray Bridge a fortnight back. He got off the speed and while he was never really threatening, he kept finding the line and was quite good in defeat behind Dunalley. Like him up in trip and dangerous with a more positive steer.

3 Favourite Child (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is absolutely humming for Clarken/O’Shea and should take a power of beating once again. She has won four on the bounce, the latest being at Murray Bridge two weeks ago when just off the speed before being presented clear air and away she went, winning quite impressively. Only has to hold her form and I think she wins again.

7 Brave Star (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given another look for Phillip Stokes. He looked hard to beat on paper at Murray Bridge two weeks but he was one of many for the meeting that struggled on the paddock so forgive/forget the run behind Aiguilette. Hopefully on a better track here, he can run an improved race.

6 Shakespeare (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has returned in super order it seems. Team Jolly trained stayer that won at Gawler three weeks back, giving them a start and a beating on the testing track to win quite well. Back in trip I find interesting but he should be strong late and take the favourite out, it’s not a deep race.

2 Extremely Lucky (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes here with fresh legs for Clarken/O’Shea, having not raced since June 22 down the straight at Flemington where he got into a decent spot and loomed to win but couldn’t quite see it through when close up in defeat behind Crosshaven. Tick over trial was quite good and returning home, he’s dangerous and has class.

1 Ashford Street (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has class and that will carry him a long way. Tom Dabernig trained gelding that comes through the Monash where he was safely held in a sit/sprint behind dominant winner Recommendation. If this track remains to have juice, he’s so well in and gets the claim. Easy likeable.

8 Ocean Reward (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is three weeks between runs for Mark Webb since racing over 1200m at Gawler when off the speed and seemed to have every chance but couldn’t quite come on in a plain effort and finale behind Klabel. Down in the weights here and off prior efforts, he can threaten against these.

2 Hard Prince (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks the straight bat play for Team Jolly. A couple of key chances here come through the Gawler race that he won. He got a beaut run in transit near the speed before being clicked up and in a tight go, was too good. Good racing style, hard fit and in form.

1 A Samurai Mind (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate a rise in trip. Talented three year old that resumed over 1100m two weeks back at Murray Bridge where it was pretty much another barrier trial, getting back and was just run off his legs behind Hajra. 1100m straight to the mile I find interesting but he is the class runner and if he’s fit, class will carry him a long way.

10 Cherokee Miss (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is hit and miss but her best is more than good enough to be dangerous. She was a close up third here two back before going to Gawler a few weeks back where she got back to near last in the run and failed to get involved, finishing down the track. Off the run prior, she’s dangerous.

11 Hajra (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should take a power of beating for Clarken/O’Shea. This girl spanked her rivals two weeks ago at Murray Bridge, giving them a start and a beating in an electric performance, her first run in four weeks, so with good room for improvement and in a fast run 1050m, I think she can explode and take a power of beating.

Giving serious respect to 10 Mighty (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Moody/Coleman trained mare that was a dominant winner first up at this trip. She got into a decent spot just off the speed before angling into clear air and she went through her gears like a nice horse to win and win well. Good improvement to come, maps perfect again and looks extremely hard to beat.

5 Whistlefield (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is four weeks between runs for Tom Dabernig since a strong all the way win over 1000m at Caulfield where she produced sustained speed from the front and gave nothing else a look in, winning impressively. Has to go an extra 50m but with her racing pattern, she’ll give herself every chance.

1 Winning Revolution (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will love the drop back in grade/depth. He contested a strong race two weeks back at Murray Bridge where he just found them a bit sharp but that said, I thought he was far from disgraced in defeat behind The Guava. Back to this level, he should prove hard to beat.

5 Zanthron (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect. Searle/Callanan trained three year old that is on the seven day back up after racing last Saturday on the Parks track here when back off the speed and closed strongly but couldn’t quite get there when second to Sir Now. Hard fit, gets in well after the claim, likeable for sure.

3 Sabermetric (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is several weeks between runs for Richards/Moyle since racing over 1100m at Morphettville when first up. He was wide no cover on a hot speed and just couldn’t sustain the run, feeling the pinch and finishing down the track behind Sportsbeat. Better ridden with more patience, his best is good enough to take this out.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 3 Favourite Child

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 11 Hajra

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 1 Winning Revolution

Quaddie (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 6, 8

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 10

Leg Three: 10, 11

Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 5, 14

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful.

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