Nine races will be run and won at Caulfield on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out twelve metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (11:50) Vale Graham Salisbury Hcp 1100m
4 Yulong Island (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) is a son of Exceed And Excel resuming for Team Hawkes. Debuted at the Valley back in November when leading and just feeling the pinch late when third to Blue Diamond winner Tagaloa, so that form reads A1 for this. Jumpout last week was good and stable don’t send a good two year old around in Winter for nothing.
1 Euphoric Summer (Bet Now: $3.60 TOP ODDS) is a key chance. The in form Price/Kent stable trains this filly, who I was keen on when she resumed at Mornington on the public holiday meeting. Market didn’t like her late, suggesting she may need the run, and that’s how it panned out, tiring late when pipped near the peg by Miss Bosetti. Fitter and up to 1100m on her home track, she’s likeable.
2 Tolkowsky (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) is a James Cummings trained gelding that had jumped out well prior to his debut at Sale where he was supported at odds and you had to like the way he knuckled down in order to win, surging the final few strides to get up. Blinkers seem to have really switched him on and has to be respected here.
Race 2. (12:25) Le Pine Funerals (78) 1600m
The jockey upgrade is what is swinging me the way of 6 No Say In It (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS). No disrespect to Chris Caserta, but Michael Rodd is high class and is building up a good strike rate with Lindsey Smith. Forget this horse went around at Flemington. Poor ride, wide throughout and was given no chance. Can see him ridden cold and launching late.
2 Kaplumpich (Bet Now: $3.70 TOP ODDS) is knocking on the door to take one of these out. He was very brave two weeks ago at the Valley. Wide throughout no cover and was there battling away on the turn as some sort of threat but the hard run told late. Has that busted him? Potentially, but his overall form recently cannot be ignored.
7 I Could Do Better (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) is a very interesting runner. Chris Waller trained gelding from the UK that made his Australian debut over 1400m at Flemington three weeks ago when kept hard in the market, which is a good sign for an import on debut. Was wide no cover throughout so a forgive job, and keep in mind Holbein won last Saturday to frank the form. Keep in mind he had a peak rating of 95 when racing overseas and is here rated 75, so in that regard, he’s so well in.
Race 3. (13:00) Take It To The Neds Level Hcp 1440m
Think 7 Mystery Shot (Bet Now: $3.70 TOP ODDS) can make it 3/3 for Lindsey Smith. Defied somewhat of a betting drift when resuming on a testing Ballarat track, finishing best under Michael Rodd to get the job done in beating the older horses. He’s got upside to come you would assume and on firmer footing, think he’ll take some beating.
4 Arctic Wolf (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) is heading in the right direction for the Michael Moroney team. Took a little while to break the maiden tag but it finally came at Ballarat last time out on a testing wet track and he had to really dig in late to get there. Like that the Blinkers are on, hopefully to sharpen him up, and he can take advantage of the gate.
6 Matsumoto (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS) is the interesting runner. Was unwanted in betting when debuting at Wangaratta but you had to like the way he put them away, beating American Whiskey, who won impressively last week at Bendigo and is a horse Team Hawkes think can be a Spring contender, so think that form reads well and Craig Williams steers. Can see him sitting wide with cover and launching late.
Race 4. (13:35) Father Brendan Dillon (84) 1200m
Going to give 3 Anjana (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) one last chance before it’s well and truly a life ban. Promised so much earlier in the prep but overall, she’s been very disappointing. Admittedly, her last couple of runs have come in races which were far stronger than what she faces here, and she has done well on the back up before.
Back on a bigger track I do like for 9 Sakura (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS). Failed on a bog track at Rosehill two back behind Bound To Win over 1400m before coming back to 1200m at the Valley two weeks ago and worked home pretty well I thought behind Be My Star. Like her back on a bigger track…been up a while, but a repeat of last start and she’s certainly in the mix.
The best version of 11 Gina’s Hope (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS) can measure up against these. Trialled up really well prior to resuming on a testing Sandown track when wide throughout and battled away okay in defeat behind Power O’Hata. Was very good in defeat second up last prep and hopefully the track won’t be as testing this time around.
Race 5. (14:10) Hyland Sportswear Eofy Sale 1200m
7 Power Boom (Bet Now: $10.00) looks to have her share of talent for Glenn Thornton. Impressive return with a maiden win at Pakenham on the Synthetic before going to the Valley where she admittedly had the right run with the track pattern, but still had to take advantage of it and she did, finishing third to Kalkarni Royale. If she went to a 68/70 race, she’d be a good thing I think, but even here, still hard to beat.
4 Felicia (Bet Now: $2.45) is knocking on the door to win one. Ran over 1200m at the Valley a fortnight back when seemingly getting a sweet run just off the speed under Zahra and was there to win on the turn. Just found Kalkarni Royale too good on the day but was still a definite pass mark. Bursting to win a race and she gets her chance.
The best version of 5 Night Express (Bet Now: $6.50) is certainly capable. Henry Dwyer trained filly who hasn’t raced since May 13 at Sandown when leading and tiring badly late behind Splendoronthegrass but was found to be lame post race. Bit of head gear tinkering from the stable to bring a return to form, and off her win three back in Adelaide, she can beat these.
Race 6. (14:50) Neds Same Race Multi Hcp 1000m
Going the way of 9 Proper Rogue (Bet Now: $6.50). The Price/Kent stable trains this gelding, who won 2/2 when last in work, breaking the maiden tag at Geelong at Winx odds before going to Flemington down the straight where he did a bit wrong but was still too good. Liked his recent Caulfield jumpout and hopefully he can stalk a fast speed and get the luck from the gate.
1 Ms Catherine (Bet Now: $3.90) is a Henry Dwyer trained filly that put an unbeaten run on the line when she resumed over 1000m at the Valley a fortnight ago where she was a notable drifter in betting and albeit she copped some pressure on speed, thought she was entitled to finish off better when third, but perhaps the market knew she was a bit off her game and perhaps in need of the run. Want to be forgiving and she gets another chance.
5 Wilmot Pass (Bet Now: $6.00) is a son of Rubick for Anthony Freedman that resumes. This three year old hasn’t raced since January 25 over 1400m here when back off the speed and seemed to have his chance. Was still good in defeat, finishing a close up third to Zero Doubt. Recent jumpout was good and does seem more effective as a sprinter.
Race 7. (15:30) Neds (bm84) 1100m
Taking a chance with the former French galloper 5 Price Range (Bet Now: $21.00). Made his Australian debut over 1400m here a month ago where he went way too keen in the run and had nothing left for the straight behind the in form Heptagon. Cross Over Nose Band is on and his subsequent jumpout was very encouraging. Hoping that back to 1100m, the speed will be on so he can relax and finish off strong.
3 Sansom (Bet Now: $4.40) looks ready to win. Phillip Stokes trained three year old who resumed over 1000m at the Valley two weeks ago where he sat off the good speed and was there to win. Just no match for the Kris Lees filly Iconic Star, who I dare say will be a mare to watch out for in those 955m races at the Valley. Fitter now is Sansom, he’ll take some beating.
2 Mister Yeaoh (Bet Now: $26.00) is suited back to this sort of level. Resumed for Jim Conlan down the Flemington straight three weeks ago and was a definite pass mark in defeat behind Prezado, who went very close to winning last Saturday, so the form reads well and open company back to 84 grade, he can run a positive race at odds.
Race 8. (16:05) Neds Money Back Odds Hcp 2000m
I’ll take a chance with 7 South Pacific (Bet Now: $14.00) a former UK galloper that makes his Australian debut for the Maher/Eustace yard. Has the Constantinople and Stradivarius form around him, which does read very well for a race like this, and did have a rating of 101 when racing over there. Comes to Australia with a 92 rating, so he’s got ratings points in hand, and loved the way he found the line under riding in a recent Caulfield jumpout.
4 Harbour Views (Bet Now: $1.95) was an alarming drifter in betting when racing at the Valley a fortnight back, with the track pattern seemingly against him, but the ride from Johnny Allen was a peach. Rode a positive race to land the 1/1 and from the 600m onwards, the race was over. Big plans potentially ahead for this guy, so keen to see how he goes off that super win.
10 Sir Pippin (Bet Now: $19.00) should appreciate the rise to 2000m for Chris Waller. Ran over the mile at the Valley two weeks ago and against the pattern, thought he found the line pretty well over an unsuitable trip behind Plein Ciel/Shot Of Irish. Good record around this distance range and has more to come compared to most engaged here.
Race 9. (16:38) Neds Toolbox (84) 1440m
4 Salon Du Cheval (Bet Now: $7.00) might just have too much quality for this lot. Lindsey Smith trained gelding who came to Victoria from WA with a decent wrap on him and he lived up to the hype, winning his first two starts before racing over 2000m here in nearly track record time, a total forgive run. Got a touch of class/quality and is better than 84 grade IMO.
Just has to repeat his last start effort and 3 Morrissy (Bet Now: $6.00) goes close to winning this. Hadn’t done much in two runs prior to his last start outing at the Valley, where he contested an open sprint with Stakes class horses and was very good late, just missing out on picking up Ashlor. Back to 84 grade, gee he’ll take some beating with a repeat performance.
Doubt he wins, but can certainly include 8 Onslaught (Bet Now: $10.00) in multiples. Resumed in the Monegal race from a fortnight back at Rosehill where he had a suck behind the speed and seemed to get his chance but was far from disgraced in defeat behind the Theresa Bateup runner. Good second up record…would love a drying deck.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Two Number 6 No Say In It
NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 7 South Pacific
LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 5 Price Range
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 5, 9, 10
Leg Two: 2, 3, 5, 7, 9
Leg Three: 4, 7
Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 8
$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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