The Sydney Autumn Carnival is done and dusted but the feature racing doesn’t stop with Hawkesbury hosting their stand alone metro meeting this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (11:50) Provincial Stayers Handicap (78) 2100m
I reckon the staying race at Scone might be more suitable to 7 Bajan Gold (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) but can’t let him go around without me. Bit of an ugly watch if you were on last Wednesday at Warwick Farm when not really getting a chance to build momentum but when he did, he flashed at them late when fourth to Plymouth Road on a day where on speed/rail was the spot to be. Back in trip not that ideal, but has upside and in the right stable.
If you want to see a 12/10 steer, watch the replay of the last start win from 11 Belfast Bella (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) over 1900m here and the ride from Jason Collett. It was a beauty. The mare was near last on the turn but Collett saved ground nearer the inside and in the space of 200m, he went from last to first and drew clear. 2100m no issue, has upside and is now in winning form, full of confidence.
2 King Viv (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) has had a couple of runs now from a month freshen up so he should just about be ready fitness wise. He comes through the Plymouth Road race mentioned above where he took off under Shinn on the turn and looked the winner but perhaps condition gave out late, along with bias being against him, when beaten narrowly by the surprise winner. That tough run should hold him in good stead for this.
Race 2. (12:25) Ascend Sales Trophies Handicap (78) 1500m
I’m keen on 5 Chalmers (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS). Was keen on him running a big race in the Provincial Championships Final and he indeed did that. Thought he was the winner 300m out when presented but he just lacked that turn of foot to put them away when third to Bobbing. Love the step up in trip with him. Might want a mile, but he’s just going too well to not go past.
3 Harmattan (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) looks one of the hardest to beat. James Cummings trains this mare, who found the bog track a bit much two back in the Epona behind Semari before going to the Gosford (Metro) mile when a narrow and unlucky second to Calculated, with the winner shifting out under pressure. Just depends here re her winning chances is if she’s still got zip in the legs.
1 So You Win (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) is a So You Think gelding for Chris Waller resuming. This bloke hasn’t raced since Australia Day at Randwick when seemingly having his chance; albeit in a strongly run affair, when fourth to Mercurial Lad. Has just had the one quiet trial leading in, but 1500m fresh tells me there has been enough work put in at home in readiness for his return and is one to include in multiples.
Race 3. (13:00) Claredon Stakes 1300m
1 Erno (Bet Now: $2.60 TOP ODDS) is unbeaten in two career outings for Kim Waugh. Debuted with an all the way win at Wyong before going to Warwick Farm last Wednesday when leading throughout again and showing good fight in the straight when challenged. Plenty to like about the way he goes about and despite the depth/class rise this time around, he’s a leading chance.
6 Shaibanat (Bet Now: $14.00 TOP ODDS) is a Lonhro colt for James Cummings who debuted over 1200m at Gosford (Metro) where he got a fair way back in the run and wasn’t 100% happy on the tight track I thought but his finale was okay behind Iskander. Should take good improvement from that one would assume and really, how can you put a line through any juvenile in this stable.
7 Antonio Padre (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) is a Chris Waller trained youngster who resumed in the Erno race from last Wednesday at Warwick Farm where he had market support but was a bit one paced on a day where those on speed were advantaged. Think up to 1300m on the bigger track will be to his liking and Waller is another who likes to target this race with a progressive type.
Race 4. (13:35) Hawkesbury Crown 1300m
6 Multaja (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS) is probably one of the better types re ability, but a strong 1300m I just have a little query about with her. Got her confidence up with a spank job at Hawkesbury before going to the PJ Bell where she was given a sweet steer from Willow and she just proved too good for Into The Abyss. If this was 1200m, I’d say Multaja wins clearly, but 1300m, just not 100% diving in.
3 Irithea (Bet Now: $3.50 TOP ODDS) does look one of the hardest to beat and this appears a target race. Resumed in the Sapphire when sitting near a very fast speed and looming large to beat White Moss but the grey mare had race fitness on her side and just proved too good. Irithea does seem to be best ridden when rolling along in front at a good speed and making them chase. If that happens, hard to run down.
Really interesting to see what 5 Aqua D’Ivina (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS) does. Quality mare for the in form Matty Smith stable resuming. She did a fab job in the Spring, winning two races on the bounce before going to the Matriarch where she was disappointing behind Kenedna, but that form has been excellent since. Quiet trial leading up to her return, gives away a start but will be strong late.
Race 5. (14:10) TAB Highway Handicap (Class Two) 1100m
Bit of a throw at the stumps here in the shape of 9 So Shy (Bet Now: $13.00), who resumes for the Aidan St Vincent stable. This bloke had a really good Spring/Summer prep, which included a couple of wins and a close up fourth to an above average animal in Evopex. Loved the way he trialled recently at Port Macquarie behind Victorem and can settle handy near the speed if need be. Probably a 1×3 play at $15+.
11 Major Danger (Bet Now: $4.40) is a Danny Williams trained gelding who had good market support when racing over 1000m at Goulburn last time when wide no cover for the trip but despite that, was there to win, but couldn’t quite finish it off when a close up fourth to Carruthers. Like him up to 1100m, because I think he’s just finding the five furlongs a tad sharp. Leading chance.
5 Bridyn May (Bet Now: $8.00) is a daughter of Snitzel resuming for the Danny Williams stable. This girl hasn’t raced since December 8 in a Highway at Rosehill when midfield behind the then in form Our Rosemaree. Couple of runs prior to that, she ran second to Noble Boy at Goulburn and we know how strong that form reads for this. Just want to see what the market does.
Race 6. (14:50) Hawkesbury XXXX Gold Rush 1100m
This looks a real target for the Kris Lees trained 1 Tactical Advantage (Bet Now: $2.05). Dynamite sprinter who has a very good fresh record and does look well placed here. Hasn’t raced since the Takeover Target when given a sweet steer from Avdulla and just getting the better of Easy Eddie. Has had three trials in readiness for his return and does appear as if he’s been kept on ice for a dry track, which he should get here.
6 Intuition (Bet Now: $8.00) is a son of Street Cry for James Cummings that’s been freshened up since winning the Bert Lillye on Kembla Grange Classic Day when proving too good for Albumin. Another that’s dodged the wet tracks and finds a winnable race off the back of a really good trial last Monday. Has residual fitness on his side and will be strong at the end I’m sure.
The weight relief is going to really suit 8 Akasaki (Bet Now: $17.00). He lumped 62kg in the Wellington Town Plate last time and worked home well despite carrying the grandstand behind El Mo. Tumbles down to 53kg and gets Collett back on, who rides the horse well. Does no work from the draw and if the breaks go his way, he’ll be flashing at them late I’m sure. Knockout chance.
Race 7. (15:30) Hawkesbury Guineas 1400m
Have to be with 6 Come Along (Bet Now: $19.00) at the odds. It was a horror show if you were on him at Warwick Farm last Wednesday where punters saw him as the ideal get out, into $5.50 from $7.50. If you were on, sorry. He was just absolutely bolting in behind them, wanting to get clear, but couldn’t, and for mine he goes close to winning had he got clear at the right time. Hopefully we can see what’s under the hood this time around.
This does look an ideal race for the Team Snowden trained 2 Military Zone (Bet Now: $4.20). Like most, I was keen on him when he resumed at Gosford (Metro) but just had too much to do given where he was in the run but the splits said his run was outstanding and as good as he could do first up from where he was. Up to 1400m, and the way he trialled before the resumption, convinced he’s come back well.
I reckon 8 Eawase (Bet Now: $16.00) is going well for the Snowden camp. Just forget her first up run in the PJ Bell on the wet track before going to the James Carr last Saturday where she was good in restricted room. Drawn a touch out this time so she should get clear air, which is what she needs, and she does tend to get better deeper into a campaign, so giving her respect.
Race 8. (16:10) Hawkesbury Gold Cup 1600m
4 Kaonic (Bet Now: $7.50) for me. Chris Waller trains this four year old, who has been kept on ice since the Doncaster Prelude where he really struggled to pick his feet up on the bog surface behind stablemate Mister Sea Wolf. Been waiting for a dry track, which he gets here, and the big tick is he gets gate one, where he should get the dream sit and drag up via Tom Melbourne.
2 Tom Melbourne (Bet Now: $6.00) won’t get a better chance to win another race and I’m very tempted to put him on top. Thought his Doncaster Prelude run was full of merit behind Mister Sea Wolf after sitting near the speed, fighting on well in defeat. He should lead these for fun and if he can relax in front, he’ll look the winner for the most part. But can’t tip/back with confidence because it is Tom.
Richard Freedman has a great record with tried horses so with that being the case, I’m giving respect to 13 Kellstorm (Bet Now: $67.00), a former Darren Weir stayer having his first run for Freedman. His best form will come over 2400m+, and the triasl say as much where he couldn’t keep up, but the stable can produce one first up, so I think just keep one eye on the market just in case.
Race 9. (16:50) Blakes Marine Handicap (78) 1300m
I know Gayna Williams has a decent opinion of 14 El Mo (Bet Now: $6.50), and that was the same for Danny Williams when he trained him. Has had three runs for Gayna, winning the last two, with the latest being the Town Plate at Wellington when a break between runs, back in trip, but class getting him home. It looks as if the 1300m will be fine for him and has run well in town before.
9 Signore Fox (Bet Now: $3.40) should just about be ready to show something. Couple of fair runs are outside a placing on a Warwick Farm placing on a bog. Last run came in the South Pacific when wide all the way and battling away well without threatening. Only beaten 1.5L though and that race I think will be a really good form reference. At his best, he can win this.
10 Handfast (Bet Now: $14.00) is a Richard Litt trained gelding who has threatened and teased to win a race or two on the bounce but just keeps finding one or two better, which was the case last time at Gosford (Metro) when a closing second to Americana Magic. Suited up in trip and should do no work from the inside gate, plus that was his first run in a few weeks, so there should be room for improvement.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Six Number 1 Tactical Advantage
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 5 Chalmers
LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 6 Come Along
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1
Leg Two: 2, 5, 6, 8
Leg Three: 2, 4, 11, 13
Leg Four: 2, 3, 9, 10, 14
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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