26/2/2014 Horse Racing Tips & Best Bets – Randwick, Kensington

An excellent card of racing has been assembled for Kensington on Wednesday. Our best bet comes in race

Form Guide

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Race One (13:18) : Australian Turf Club Handicap (70) 2500m Form Guide

Back Me: Quite keen on the Kris Lees import here in Sommernachtstraum (Best Odds: $2.85). He has had three runs on Aussie soil, the latest being a couple of weeks back at Randwick over 2400m when third to Pentometer. He had a charmed run off the pace and got a beaut split at the top of the straight, but just didn’t quite finish it off. Should be cherry ripe fitness wise, Bowman takes the ride, hard to beat.
Big Danger: Rule Book (Best Odds: $1.75) has been a touch disappointing this preparation, starting favourite on a couple of occasions and failing to greet the judge. He ran fourth in that Pentometer race where he failed to recover normally post race, so provided he is over that, he should be right in the finish, but he is wearing thin with punters.
Roughie: Daruna (Best Odds: $9.00) ran over the 1800m here at the last meeting, where he sat outside the speed and fought on quite well late when sixth, beaten a half length in a real blanket finish. Stepping quickly up to 2500m against the two mentioned above won’t be easy, but he appears better than the bottom three.

$250 Sommernachtstraum Free Bet

Race Two (13:53) : Big Sports Breakfast Maiden Plate 1100m Form Guide

Back Me: Really tough two year old race to sort out. Metamere (Best Odds: $3.60) is on debut for Peter Snowden, and she is a beautifully bred filly by Lonhro out of a very good broodmare in Segments. Comes here off the back of two barrier trial wins, both of which have been impressive. Drawn a touch awkwardly, but McDonald steers and the stable are having a fab run with their youngters.
Big Danger: Tetsuko (Best Odds: $3.40) hasn’t been seen since finishing a narrow second to Alpha Miss in the Gimcrack during the Spring. Was well backed there off the back of a good trial win, and has looked quite good in recent trials to suggest a win will be had this prep.
Roughie: I’ll be keeping an eye on Cloudwatch (Best Odds: $61.00) for Guy Walter and Sam Clipperton. Hasn’t been asked to do much in a couple of barrier trials, given plenty of time to balance up and hit the line, which she has done quite well. Looks as if she’ll be better suited over slightly further, but again, the stable is absolutely flying.

$250 Metamere Free Bet

Race Three (14:28) : Tab.com.au Handicap (75) 1800m Form Guide

Back Me: Ordinary race here. Saghann (Best Odds: $15.00) was purchased by Australian Bloodstock with the Cups in mind last Spring, but he failed miserably in some pretty thin races at the provincials. Now with Chris Waller, gelded, and off the back of a couple of pleasing trials, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him run a good race fresh.
Big Danger: Masahiko (Best Odds: $2.75) resumed over the 1550m here a couple of weeks back where he led and looked to be going like the winner on the turn, only for fitness to give way late. He will have come on big time from that run, again looks the leader and should take some beating with Nash steering.
Roughie: Tenby Lady (Best Odds: $8.50) hasn’t been seen since finishing down the track in the Newcastle Cup to Winning Glory. Form prior to that was excellent without winning, so you’d think she’d be capable against this bunch.

$250 Saghann Free Bet

Race Four (15:03) : Congrats @ Vinery Maiden Plate 1550m Form Guide

Back Me: We liked Wonderful Feeling (Best Odds: $9.00) at the last meeting here a couple of weeks back, but was a late scratching at the barriers. Instead, she ran at Wyong and was far from disgraced on a bottomless surface when third to Trumped. The much firmer footing suits, as does the step up in trip and getting back to her home track.
Big Danger: More Beautiful (Best Odds: $5.00) has really caught the eye in two runs this time in, both times sitting off the speed and charging the track. Bigger track, extra journey, long straight…he ticks all the boxes here.
Roughie: Moorluv (Best Odds: $5.00) came off the bit well before the home turn at Hawkesbury last time out, but kept whacking away and was doing her best work late. Fitter, drawn well and is a definite improver against this lot.

$250 Wonderful Feeling Free Bet

Race Five (15:40) : Hyland Race Colours Handicap 1550m Form Guide

Back Me: Cast In Stone (Best Odds: $6.50) had raced with no luck prior to her demolition job at Wyong, winning by three lengths where it could have easily been much more. Now that she has got the win under her belt, her confidence will be right up and she can go on with it.
Big Danger: Paris Match (Best Odds: $3.50) was an impressive first up maiden winner at Gosford, then backed it up with a better performance when a close up third to Lorna May over the 1300m here a couple of weeks back. 1550m looks perfect and the smaller field will only be beneficial.
Roughie: Elusive Diva (Best Odds: $34.00) was ridden too close to the speed last time out at Hawkesbury and gradually faded late. I think with a more cold steer, and with the claim for Clipperton, she could sneak into the first four without surprising me.

$250 Cast In Stone Free Bet

Race Six (16:20) : 2014 ATC Memberships On Sale Now Handicap (72) 1400m Form Guide

Back Me: Could easily be mistaken for a stakes race here. An absolute ripper event. Going for Interspersed (Best Odds: $4.40) for Sam Kavanagh and Jason Collett. Resumed at Newcastle a few weeks ago and bolted in over the 1300m, running electric time and going 33 neat for his last 600m, a sectional which hasn’t been seen over that track/distance in a long time. Really like the fact that he has been sent straight to town.
Big Danger: Traitor (Best Odds: $3.30) didn’t have a great deal of luck when racing here over the 1550m as a heavily backed favourite. He got stuck three wide with no cover and was left a sitting shot for the eventual winner Intimate Moment. Should get cover, and the gun run, from the good draw here and does have the fitness edge.
Roughie: Keen to see the two Darley runners Gallatin and Tupac Amaru (Best Odds: $19.00). Gallatin showed great promise during the Spring, being most unlucky at Newcastle, then winning at Warwick Farm before narrowly missing out in a stakes race during Cup Week. Trials suggest he’ll need this run, while Tupac Amaru ran a cracking fifth in the Derby behind Polanski after getting severely checked early in the run. He is the more forward of the pair, and has the class edge.

$250 Traitor Free Bet

Race Seven (17:00) : Drummond Golf Handicap (70) 1400m Form Guide

Back Me: Society Man (Best Odds: $4.00) was well ridden by Nash last time out at Canterbury, taking full advantage of the on pace bias and running along in front and clinging on to win narrowly. He’ll be more conservative here with the big weight and more depth, but that was only his second run back from a spell, so there should still be improvement left.
Big Danger: Danaura (Best Odds: $9.00) looked the winner here a couple of weeks ago over the 1300m, but was bloused late by the well backed Revengeful. Extra 100m looks ideal now, and the pull in the weights after the claim for Kissick certainly makes him a tough nut to crack here.
Roughie: The knockout horse here is Global Dream (Best Odds: $5.00), the former Queenslander who hasn’t been sighted since Christmas at Rosehill when down the track to Bring A Ring. Now with Team Hawkes, and trialled really nicely behind Guelph, sitting off her and going to the line under a hold.

$250 Society Man Free Bet

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Best Bet: Race One Number 2 Sommernachtstraum (Best Odds: $2.85)

Next Best: Race Five Number 5 Interspersed (Best Odds: $2.50)

Best Roughie: Race Four Number 13 Wonderful Feeling (Best Odds: $9.00)

Quaddie Tips (Races Four Through To Seven):

Leg One: 4, 5, 11, 13

Leg Two: 1, 4, 5, 6, 7

Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6

Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 10

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.