Racing returns to Caulfield this Saturday with its traditional Boxing Day Program, the first meeting at the track since Caulfield Cup Day. The first meeting back after the Caulfield Cup last year was Orr Stakes Day earlier in the year and it played towards leaders so keep an eye on that when betting here. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is good (3) and the rail is out two metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:30) : Schweppes Handicap (70) 1400m:
Back Me: Validate (Best Odds: $2.30) was very good in defeat last time out over 1200m at Moonee Valley when working home okay late to run third to Love Days, who looks well above average. Step up to 1400m looks ideal, as does the bigger track, and this could well be the perfect start to the comeback of Nick Hall.
Big Danger: Single Note (Best Odds: $5.50) steps up immediately to city level after winning her maiden last time out over 1200m at Geelong, where she was given a lovely steer from Matty Allen. Has plenty of upside and should have no trouble running 1400m.
Roughie: Miss Clooney (Best Odds: $7.00) ran over this distance at William Hill Park Hillside a couple of weeks back and stuck on well when third to Backstreet Lover, who looks a very nice filly herself. Looks nicely placed here and her lone run here was behind a handy Adelaide filly in Caro Kann when making up a stack of ground late.
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Race Two (13:00) : Joe Brown Plate 1100m:
Back Me: I’ll go with the Robert Smerdon first starter Climate (Best Odds: $4.00). I really like what I saw at the Caulfield jump outs on December 1 where she looked to do her business quite nicely. Stable is having a good run with their youngsters at the moment, and this one looks pretty good.
Big Danger: Hellbound (Best Odds: $3.50) is a first starter for Mick Price by More Than Ready. Hasn’t caught my eye at the jump outs, but he has been kept very safe in the market, stable rider is on and he debuts on his home track, which is always an advantage.
Roughie: Hell Of An Effort (Best Odds: $7.50) is the pick of the raced brigade here. He showed good natural toe to lead throughout over this distance at Geelong. I think he might well be better when he has a bunny to chase, and as we know with two year old racing, experience is such an advantage.
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Race Three (13:36) : Allan Wicks Handicap (90) 2000m:
Back Me: Going to give Yellen (Best Odds: $3.20) another chance. Forgive her for her last start failure at Flemington given she was asked to lead all the way, and I really don’t think that’s her racing pattern. She is much better when she has something to chase and ridden with cover, which is what should eventuate here, and Ben Melham has a lethal record when steering Chris Waller runners.
Big Danger: Yulong Baby (Best Odds: $4.80) ran over 1800m at William Hill Park last time out when working home strongly late to run second to Speed Gonzales, beaten just under half a length in a pleasing effort. Up to 2000m is perfect, third up and Olly remains on.
Roughie: Arianne (Best Odds: $10.00) comes here after working home strongly last time out over 1800m at William Hill Park when second to Fair And Equitable. She’ll love the rise to 2000m, draws well and she will be strong late.
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Race Four (14:11) : Ken Sturt Handicap (90) 1400m:
Back Me: Sense And Reason (Best Odds: $10.00) ran over this distance at William Hill Park Hillside last time out where she wasn’t suited by the slow tempo behind Danestroem. Better suited here IMO and Oliver on is a plus because he gets on very well with Chris Waller runners.
Big Danger: Anaphora (Best Odds: $3.00) comes through the Danestroem race where she was on speed but pulling her head off, so for her to finish a close up second was enormous. If she brings better racing manners here, and can sit a touch further back, she is a serious winning chance.
Roughie: Khutulun (Best Odds: $9.00) ran in the Gold Bullion (1400m) on Pakenham Cup Day where she was near last in a slowly run race and really had no hope behind Burning Front, who ran well at Flemington recently. First up win was superb, so third up now, she should be ready fitness wise.
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Race Five (14:46) : Dennis Hanrahan Handicap (90) 1100m:
Back Me: Pink Perfection (Best Odds: $9.00) for me here in a tricky race. This mare resumes for Peter Moody after a pretty solid prep, with the highlight being a dominant win at Bendigo. Recent jump out here was very sharp, she flies fresh, Boss on and appears well drawn to ping over, lead and take some beating.
Big Danger: Celeritas (Best Odds: $3.20) won a heat of the 55 second challenge last start at the Valley when producing a booming finish out to win narrowly but impressively. Looks better suited under these circumstances and Jackie Beriman takes over, and she has ridden the horse well previously.
Roughie: Down The Hatch (Best Odds: $13.00) was a touch disappointing last start at the Valley over 1000m when fifth to Appalachian Annie. She did get held up a touch in the straight, but once clear, she didn’t really finish it off. Gate one now with Froggy riding could spark improvement.
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Race Six (15:25) : Frank O’Brien Handicap (78) 1200m:
Back Me: Keen here on Niccoco (Best Odds: $10.00). He was one of the runs of the day IMO a fortnight back at Flemington, making up a stack of ground from near last to run third to Tyrannize, beaten just over a length. He will be better around the bend and just looks well above average. Confident he will measure up.
Big Danger: Tyrannize (Best Odds: $8.50) was given a lovely steer from Ben Melham to win that race mentioned above, sitting near the speed before peeling out and Melham just waited and waited to push the button and that won the race for this Mike Moroney youngster. Should be hard to beat once again.
Roughie: Well Sighted (Best Odds: $13.00) ran over this distance at Moonee Valley a few weeks back and worked home okay late when fourth to the impressive winner Rillito. Much easier here one suspects, and on her best form, she’d take some beating here.
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Race Seven (16:05) : Cape Grim Beef Handicap (78) 1800m:
Back Me: Golden Mane (Best Odds: $4.80) was given a plum steer from Dylan Dunn to win over the Moonee Valley mile last time out, getting to the best part of the track and timing his run to perfection. Looks to have upside also, draws well and Dunn remains on.
Big Danger: Warrior King (Best Odds: $2.60) was heavily backed when resuming at William Hill Park and he didn’t let his supporters down with a brilliant finish to wear down in form type Smart Dart to win. Has enormous upside, suited at 1800m and he gets the services of comeback rider Nick Hall.
Roughie: Allergic (Best Odds: $8.50) resumed a fortnight back at Flemington where he was totally unsuited against the slow tempo when running down the track behind A Lotta Love. His trials and jump outs leading in were eye catching, and with a more genuine tempo here, he can threaten and easily bounce back.
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Race Eight (16:45) : The Cup Club Christmas Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: I’ll take a chance on Written Up (Best Odds: $9.00). He was ridden a treat by Froggy to win last start over this distance at Moonee Valley, getting to the best part of the track and timing his run to perfection. He loves a track with give in it, which he gets here, and he likes sitting back off a hot speed, which is what he will do here.
Big Danger: Reldas (Best Odds: $3.40) wasn’t suited in the Doveton (1000m) at William Hill Park Hillside given it was dominated by leaders, but he worked home alright near the inside when fifth to Wild Rain. Better suited here on his home track and up to 1200m is perfect.
Roughie: Another horse that will appreciate a fast run race is Taddei Tondo (Best Odds: $13.00), who worked home strongly last time out at William Hill Park to run second to impressive winner Del Prado, who I would have had on top had connections accepted here. He can run well on his home track and he looks to get conditions to suit.
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Race Nine (17:25) : Swettenham Stud Lord Stakes 1700m:
Back Me: Tashbeeh (Best Odds: $4.60) looks the way to go here. Dylan Dunn rode the horse to absolute perfection last start over the Flemington mile, waiting and waiting to let the horse down and then fending off Sadaqa. Senior rider on from a good draw, and down in the weights…gee he looks the one.
Big Danger: Metaphorical (Best Odds: $8.00) was a real eye catcher first up on Ballarat Cup Day behind stablemate Weinholt before going to William Hill Park where she backed that good run up with a strong third to Danestroem over 1400m. Extra 300m and back on her home track is perfect, draws well, has upside…ticks the boxes.
Roughie: Lord Athanaeum (Best Odds: $21.00) ran over 1800m at William Hill Park three weeks back where he got back and worked home well late in the race behind Lucques, beaten just over a length. He has been up for a long time, but continues to race very well, and the patient style of Nick Hall will really suit this Stuart Webb trained galloper.
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Race Ten (18:03) : Swettenham Stud Summer Championship Heat 10 (84) 1400m:
Back Me: Finding it hard to tip against the Mick Price trained Duke Of Brunswick (Best Odds: $3.30). He was wide no cover when resuming on Pakenham Cup Day but his class was just too superior for his rivals and he won impressively, and the time was far superior than the other 1200m race run on the same day. He was strong in winning second last time in, and this looks a pretty winnable race.
Big Danger: Volcanic Ash (Best Odds: $4.20) ran in the Gold Bullion (1400m) on Pakenham Cup Day where he just whacked away when fourth to Burning Front, who ran a beauty at Flemington two weeks back. Home track should suit, he’s fitter and will be strong late.
Roughie: The New Boy (Best Odds: $13.00) could be a chance here at odds. He attempted to lead all the way at Flemington last time out and stuck on well behind Tashbeeh. Back to 1400m is ideal, draws to ping over and he gets the services of Darren Gauci, which certainly will help this on speed runner.
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BEST BET: Race Ten Number 5 Duke Of Brunswick
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 13 Niccoco
VALUE: Race Seven Number 8 Allergic
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 8, 10
Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 10
Leg Three: 3, 5, 6, 8, 11, 15
Leg Four: 5
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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