The babies get to strut their stuff at Caulfeld on Australia Day this Thursday with the previews of the Blue Diamond highlighting an eight race card at the Heath. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (13:35) : Anne Billings Handicap (84) 2000m:
Back Me: 3 Falika (Bet Now: $5.50) is a mare who is low flying at the moment for the Greg Eurell yard. She ran on her home track at Cranbourne over 2000m last time out and absolutely loved the heavy track, sitting on speed before dashing clear on the turn and winning by seven lengths. Back to her own sex now, and with the hard 2000m run under the belt, and down in the weights, she’ll take some beating.
Big Danger: 9 Royal Applause (Bet Now: $5.00) is finding it hard to greet the judge but there is no doubting how genuine she is. She ran second to Plein Ciel at Caulfield on Boxing Day before racing over 1700m here where she hit the front in the straight and looked as if she was going to cling on but was nabbed late by the heavily backed Skulduggery. Has raced very well here recently and is well placed.
Long Shot: 4 My Sanctuary (Bet Now: $7.00) is a mare who is frustrating to follow but no denying that she is knocking on the door to threaten to win. The slow tempo was against her last start over 2000m at Flemington when a well beaten fourth behind stablemate Honey Cara, beaten nine lengths. Better suited here I think and though her winning strike rate isn’t inspiring, I think she’ll go close.
Race Two (14:10) : Clanbrooke Racing Handicap (78) 1400m:
Back Me: 2 Kenedna (Bet Now: $3.10) was given a peach ride from Yendall to win two back at Echuca before going to the Flemington 1400m where she was back near last in a slowly run race and to her credit, she did a really good job to finish as close as she did behind Oak Door. With a more genuine tempo here, and perhaps sit closer in the run, she can definitely threaten.
Big Danger: 8 Summer Wind (Bet Now: $3.90) was kept quite safe in the market when racing over 1300m at Sandown last time out where the filly was up near the speed and was given a lovely steer from Mallyon who waited and waited to push the button and when he did, the daughter of Stratum found and clung on. Maps well here and this isn’t a strong race.
Long Shot: 3 Domesticated (Bet Now: $6.50) stuck to the task strongly two back at Sandown behind Astley, who has performed well since. Domesticated then broke the maiden status in impressive fashion at Sale when sitting on speed and drawing clear late under a confident steer from Regan Bayliss. That was 1500m, so she will be strong at the end of 1400m here and I think there will be upside left.
Race Three (14:45) : Blue Diamond Preview (C&G) 1000m:
Back Me: 1 Azazel (Bet Now: $3.90) is a really good looking colt that resumes for Tony McEvoy. He created a good impression in his two runs during the Spring, starting off with a win in the Inglis race on Cox Plate before bumping into stablemate Aspect in the Maribyrnong Plate. Jump outs and the trial at Pakenham have looked sharp to the eye and recent history does suggest that raceday experience is essential when it comes to the Blue Diamond lead ups.
Big Danger: 8 Overshare (Bet Now: $7.50) is an I Am Invincible colt that debuts for Team Hawkes. Well bred type who has looked the part at recent jump outs at Flemington and keep in mind that the breed does come to hand early. Stable should always be respected with their youngsters, so it might pay to watch the market.
Long Shot: Robbie Griffiths can always produce a handy unraced youngster in the Blue Diamond lead ups and 10 Vibrato (Bet Now: $26.00) fits that bill. Son of Your Song that hasn’t had an official trial, but has jumped out well recently at Cranbourne and did look sharp to the eye. Not sure how good he is, but stable should always be respected.
Race Four (15:20) : Blue Diamond Preview (Fillies) 1000m:
Back Me: 2 Tulip (Bet Now: $2.25) just looks an absolute standout here, and I am confident she will go on to win the Blue Diamond. It was very difficult to do what she did on debut at Moonee Valley because she was eased back to last by Williams and they didn’t go hard in front, yet as soon as he peeled the filly out and gave her a squeeze, it was game over. Time was quicker than the older mares and compared well with the open class sprinters, which is a big tick for a two year old first starter.
Big Danger: 1 Limestone (Bet Now: $3.00) was close up on debut at the Valley behind subsequent Caulfield winner Catchy before racing down the straight at Flemington where she was kept quite safe in the market and despite being placed under pressure earlier than normal, she lengthened beautifully when asked and came away for a dominant win. I think she will be better over slightly further, but she has had the two runs under the belt now, and how can you ignore anything Darren Weir saddles up.
Long Shot: 3 Miss Wahoo (Bet Now: $8.50) comes through the Limestone race where she was first up and she took looked a little outpaced by Black Caviars daughter Oscietra, but she too warmed to the task late and was good behind Limestone in running second. She did run well at this track/distance on debut, and stable have had a great season with their juveniles.
Race Five (16:00) : Swettenham Stud Summer Championship Final 1700m:
Back Me: 6 Dodging Bullets (Bet Now: $4.20) is a tough campaigner for the Wilde camp who has been in really good form this time in but just can’t quite crack it for a win. He ran in the Koroit Cup at Warrnambool last time out where he sat near the speed and fought on strongly without much luck in a real messy affair won by Refulgent. Got a great record at the mile and he should take some beating.
Big Danger: 1 Refulgent (Bet Now: $4.80) was somewhat of a lucky winner in the Koroit Cup at Warrnambool before going to the VOBIS Gold Star last Saturday at the Valley where he was off the pace in a slowly run race and couldn’t come on with the big weight behind stablemate Burning Front. Good record at Caulfield, Rawiller rides and this race doesn’t have much depth to it.
Long Shot: The small field could well suit 3 The Bowler (Bet Now: $12.00), who hasn’t really set the world on fire this time in. Was okay two back at Morphettville before racing over the mile here where he was disappointing behind Burning Front, who bolted up on the weekend. Should get a soft trip from the gate, and on his best form, he’d give this a shake.
Race Six (16:40) : Moorookyle Park Thoroughbred Stud Handicap (70) 1600m:
Back Me: 2 Hard Promise (Bet Now: $3.30) is a talented colt who is two from two this time in for the Smerdon camp. Spanked them fresh at Cranbourne as a short priced elect before going to Geelong where he led all the way and was quite comfortable in doing it under Williams, who remains on here. Maps well, and being third up, he should be ready fitness wise.
Big Danger: 5 Astley (Bet Now: $10.00) had his first run for the Hayes/Dabernig team over 1400m at Sandown and wasn’t suited by the slow tempo, but once he got clear running and was balanced up, he found the line strongly when third to Oak Door, who has franked the form by winning at Flemington. Hard to beat provided they don’t walk.
Long Shot: 8 Congressional (Bet Now: $14.00) resumed over 1400m at Flemington a tick under two weeks back in a slowly run affair, and for a horse who will be suited at the mile and beyond, the tempo was well and truly against him behind Oak Door. On his home track now, enormous upside and up to the mile straight away. Big improver.
Race Seven (17:20) : John Dillon Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: Prepared to take a chance on 2 Humidor (Bet Now: $4.80), a former kiwi that is now with Darren Weir. Multiple Stakes winner back home who placed in a Group l two back before coming to Flemington for the Cantala but by then I think he was looking for the paddock. We know the record Weir has with these tried horses and this four year old has upside career wise, plus he is loaded with talent and is a bomb when produced fresh.
Big Danger: 5 Cavaloce (Bet Now: $5.00) is a talented mare from SA for Will Clarken who remains in Melbourne after racing down the straight last time out in the Standish where she got back before getting clear air and savaging the line but just failing in picking up Odyssey Moon, who failed with excuses in the Telegraph at Trentham. Looks really suited here back around the bend and up to 1400m. Ticks alot of boxes.
Long Shot: 1 Real Love (Bet Now: $12.00) is a classy staying mare that resumes for Darren Weir and despite her best distance being 2000m+, she can definitely run a cheeky one here. Ran really well throughout the Spring, highlighted by a dominant JRA Cup win and a fifth in the Caulfield Cup. Despite her best being over further, she does have a really good fresh record and has class on her side.
Race Eight (17:55) : Mypunter.com Plate (78) 1200m:
Back Me: 7 Magicus (Bet Now: $6.00) for me here. Talented gelding who ran quite well early on in the Winter but just lost his way towards the end of the prep. Can be a bit hard to follow, but no denying he is talented and his recent jump outs at Flemington have been quite encouraging to the eye. Prepared to take the gamble.
Big Danger: 4 Stellar Collision (Bet Now: $4.00) is getting very close to his D-Day. He was a very consistent horse last prep, but he has really done bugger all this time in and has let the punters down badly, the latest coming down the straight at Flemington behind Rocket Tommy. Around a bend should suit him and he draws well.
Long Shot: 6 Chiavari (Bet Now: $9.00) ran fourth in behind Prussian Vixen here against the mares last time out and she tried hard also but the speed of the race just didn’t suit her racing pattern and she couldn’t produce the required sectionals to overhaul them. Got a really good record at the track and there will be speed on here, so she should get her chance. A threat as always.
BEST BET: Race Six Number 2 Hard Promise
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 2 Tulip
VALUE: Race Seven Number 2 Humidor
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 6
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 5, 8
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8
Leg Four: 4, 6, 7
$50 Investment= 16.66% of the dividend if successful
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