26/12/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Christmas Stakes day

Boxing Day racing in Melbourne heads to Caulfield. Weather forecast is for showers, track is soft (5) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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5 Thin Red Line (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top. John Sadler trained three year old that had a two run Winter prep to start the career, catching the eye on debut over 1800m at Flemington before coming back to the mile at Pakenham Synthetic and spanked them. Resuming here tells me connections have eyes on Tasmania and their Summer Classic races. Jumpouts have been good and he looks to have improved from the opening prep.

1 Bold Soul (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done little wrong in a two start career for Patrick Payne. He produced a strong finale to win at Donald on debut before going here at the midweeks when back off the speed and kept finding the line in a pretty good effort behind So Glamorous. He was a few weeks between runs so with that under the belt and up to 1800m, he appeals.

2 Contain (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be around the mark for Matty Ellerton. This three year old was a strong maiden winner over the mile here last time, sustaining a run from the back and kept driving under pressure to win. Maps to get a much better run in transit and seemingly strikes a winnable race to my eye, so I think watch and see what the market does.

3 Rivaport (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can resume a winner for Grahame Begg. This mare is first up, having not raced since June 28 over 2400m at Sandown when struggling on the bog track when down the track behind Alhambra Lad. She does tend to race best early on in the prep and with strong jumpout work under the belt, I think she’s ready to go.

5 Mawkeb (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be better for the first up run, which came over 1400m at Sandown where she got a fair way out of her ground and was never really threatening but did make up headway and the run was a definite pass mark in defeat behind Material Dreams. May want 1600m now, but maps to settle much closer and her best is definitely good enough.

1 Glassey Miss (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an improver at odds for Symon Wilde. This mare had two runs in the Spring, looking in need of the run fresh at Horsham before going to the Inglis Bracelet on Oaks Day at Flemington and was outclassed behind Foxy Frida. Kept on ice since and a recent trial win at Colac indicates she’s on track to run a positive race. Her best is clearly good enough to win.

4 Explosive Thinker (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a progressive animal for Griffiths/De Kock and fitter, up to 1400m, I am happy to be in his corner. He resumed over 1200m at The Valley where he wasn’t 100% happy around the tight track but once balanced up in the straight, he knuckled down strongly to win and win well. Good set up here and with enormous upside, J Kah on, he’ll do me.

11 Valois (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be suited up to 1400m for Cliff Brown. He ran over 1200m at Sandown last time where he got a fair way out of his ground but made up nice headway and was pretty good to the line in clocking good late splits. Like him up in trip and appeals here.

12 Galactic Fury (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is in with a shout for Maher/Eustace. He ran over 1200m at The Valley last time…well I say ran, but it was pretty much a barrier trial given he didn’t get clear air at any stage and pretty much went around under a hold throughout. Prior efforts were sound and I do think getting to 1400m suits. Knockout hope.

6 Plenty Of Ammo (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the potential to be a Stakes class mare and as to how high of a level she reaches, that is unknown. What is known is that she has been stunning this time in, winning 3/3 and each time she has been arrogant the way she has gone about it. Good test here at this level, but if she is to keep rising in grade, she needs to keep winning. Confident she does win here.

5 My Mate Sonny (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and give cheek. He did that at Bendigo last time out and looked the winner for the most part, but was run down late by the in form Magnapur. If he finds the front and gets some form of control, he’ll take running down because he is tough and will keep finding.

2 Real Sensation (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate a rise to the mile. He comes through the Tatura Cup where he was run of his legs it seemed but he picked up, ran through the pain barrier, and was solid in the run to the line behind Soaring Eagle. Like him up in trip and he has proven himself to be a Saturday metro performer previously so he’s in with a shout.

12 Margie’s Boy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect for Peter Gelagotis. This gelding was met with good support when racing on Werribee Cup Day and under a peach from McNeil, he got better as the race went on to win and win well in an impressive display. That was over 1100m, a somewhat testing 1100m, so he looks suited here and maps to get a sweet run in transit.

14 Plus Fours (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks ready to win. Phillip Stokes trained gelding that ran at the Twilight meeting here where you can make a case to say he should have won but didn’t get the clearest of paths in the straight, eventually getting clear and driving hard to just miss. Should get clear air this time around and gets a big jockey upgrade.

2 Bluestone Lane (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is dangerous with his best. He comes here with fresh legs, having not raced since November 22 at Sandown when just off the speed and tired late when down the track behind Prancing Spirit. Kept up to the mark with a tick over Traralgon trial and we know this guy is talented when right. Kind map, I am not penning him.

6 Zennzella (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to be in for a really good prep and if the rain comes, she clearly becomes #1 seed. She resumed over the mile here in the Summoned where she got a mile out of her ground but loved the way she closed her race off when second to in form mare Revolutionary Miss. Better for that run, slides across to land on speed comfortably if there is intent and she will love the forecast for rain.

2 Ain’tnodeeldun (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for Team Freedman and rates highly. This gelding has won three on the bounce, the latest coming in the JRA Cup when seemingly not at home at The Valley but class came to the fore late and he was too good. If he doesn’t want the rain to hit given he is a dry tracker so if the rain does miss, he’s a leading contender.

8 En Francais (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an interesting runner for Jake Stephens. She comes back to the mile after racing over 2000m in the Ballarat Cup where she attempted to lead throughout and she did give a mini kick for a brief period in the straight but couldn’t quite see it through when fourth to Captain Envious. Back in trip and on firmer footing, she is the class of the field and will take beating.

3 Generation (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an enigma but I do think in an open race, he is a straight bat play. He hasn’t raced since Cranbourne Cup Day when contesting the Apache Cat and he was far from disgraced in defeat, staying on well enough in defeat behind Taunting, who has won again since to frank the form. Great record at Caulfield, maps to stalk a hot speed, he’ll do me.

6 Curran (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will be spotting them a start but will be launching at them late, which is what he did a few weeks back here in the Village Stakes and worked home with purpose from near last when second to Hypothetical. 1100m, I think, will be okay, and with a drag into the race, he’s going well enough to be dangerous.

Great to see 5 Yonce (Bet Now:  $SP.00) back . High class mare for Maher/Eustace that makes her return to the track after 18 months off where she suffered a tendon injury and was reported to be retired but she’s back. Several jumpouts to get ready so the grounding is there…whether she’s sharp enough, not sure, but a must for exotics.

9 Toronto Terrier (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will do me in the get out. Michael Moroney trained gelding that was a dominant and somewhat arrogant winner when racing over 1400m at Sandown when wide no cover on speed before being clicked up and he drew clear late, winning quite impressively. Maps to get the run of the race and off that last start, he’s clearly the one to beat.

3 So Risque (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is several weeks between runs for Team Hayes since a strong win over this track/distance when on speed throughout before being clicked up and he was strong to the line in winning, continuing his fab second up record. Good test here, but confident he can measure up and run another positive race.

5 Healing Oasis (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness for Annabel Neasham. This girl last raced in the Pendant on Cranbourne Cup Day when on speed and failed to fire a shot in a plain effort behind Revolutionary Miss. Definite improver back to this level.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 4 Explosive Thinker

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 9 Toronto Terrier

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 3 Rivaport

Quaddie (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 2, 12, 13, 14

Leg Two: 6

Leg Three: 3, 4, 5, 6, 7

Leg Four: 9

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