26/1/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Randwick, Carrington Stakes day

Nine races will be run and won at Randwick this Satuday where it is Carrington Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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I’ll take a chance on 14 Sylvia’s Memory (Bet Now: $26.00) for Marc Quinn. Very speedy filly who had trialled up sharply at the official 2YO trials back at the start of the season before being tipped out. Came back, another sharp trial win before debuting over the 800m at Coffs Harbour where she jumped relatively cleanly, led and was never really in trouble. Should lead these and give a great sight.

2 Bivouac (Bet Now: $8.00) is a son of Exceed And Excel resuming for James Cummings. This bloke debuted at this track/distance in October and worked to the line pretty well I thought in the inferior ground when second to Time To Reign. Trial was nothing flash, I think he’ll improve with the run, but there was enough quality shown on debut to respect him against this lot.

4 Aussie (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Snitzel colt for Team Snowden that is having his first start. He has had two trials in readiness for his debut, both coming over 900m at Rosehill where he has been on speed and while pushed out, he responded. The grounding looks ideal for a 1000m debut. The trials have been nothing to jump up and down about, but have to respect the stable.

If you want to see a horse trialling up enormous, catch the replays of 13 I Am A Cool Kid (Bet Now: $6.00), resuming for Gayna Williams. Rare to see a horse in the bush trial as well as he has, but he has really stood out in a couple of trials, firstly at Gilgandra before going to Gunnedah and repeated the dose. Each trial he’s run fast time and done it under no pressure at all. Speaking to Gayna Williams on Tuesday, her confidence levels re race fitness aren’t high, but Greg Ryan, who rode at Gunnedah, said fitness won’t be an issue. Talent wise, the horse to beat, clearly.

I want to give 2 Acquittal (Bet Now: $9.50) another chance. He resumed over 1000m here a fortnight ago in a strong benchmark race where he probably wasn’t entirely happy on the wet track but kept on and was good late when third to Star Fall. The potential is there for a case of second up syndrome from a long break, but he drops a fair bit in depth and is suited with the extra 100m.

One of the more fascinating runners on the program is 4 Pierino (Bet Now: $16.00), who is one of many candidates for Danny Williams when it comes to the Country Championships. This bloke hasn’t raced since July in a Highway at Rosehill when a game third to Wallander. He’s had surgery, been given a good break and Danny told me a couple of weeks back he’s come back enormous. Just want to watch him here given he’s first up off a long break with improvement to come.

1 Star Fall (Bet Now: $2.50) is a Maher/Eustace trained colt who is in a real purple patch at the moment. He has won three on the bounce, the latest coming a fortnight back over the 1000m here when given a 12/10 steer from Linda Meech and the son of Zoustar repaid the ride with a strong finale to get the win. Harder here, but confident he can run well again.

The only other winning chance for mine is 2 Sylvia’s Mother (Bet Now: $1.70). This filly for Team Hawkes looks to be heading in the right direction and could well make blacktype level before too long. Toyed with them first up at Hawkesbury before going to Canterbury where she was tardy away, sat back but peeled out and rounded them up like a good horse, beating Alassio, who won last Saturday. Star Fall is a tough nut though so she’ll want to be at her best to be beating him.

4 Exceltic (Bet Now: $17.00) is a handy galloper for Gary Portelli who has shown promise since day one but for the most part hasn’t lived up to the early hype. Won a strong maiden first up at Gosford before racing behind Star Fall here two weeks ago where he had his chance but stuck on okay. Doubt he turns the tables but Robbie Dolan steers and he has the inside gate.

Up to the mile is a little unknown but it was hard not to be impressed by the win of 10 Luskintyre Lass (Bet Now: $4.00) last Wednesday at Warwick Farm. She was stepping up in trip to the 1400m and she was dominant. Landed outside the leader, controlled the race nicely under Tommy Berry and when he asked her for the big effort, she responded and put them away. Can land on speed and continue her winning ways.

3 Toryjoy (Bet Now: $2.40) is a Chris Waller trained mare who is going very well at the moment. Ran over 1500m her a fortnight ago and if you were on, you’d be disappointed, but she did cop pressure in front for the majority of the race and was left a sitting shot for something from the back, and Extreme Bliss was exactly that backmarker to blouse them. If she can get a cheap furlong in front, she’ll take some running down.

8 Strome (Bet Now: $34.00) is going okay for Gary Portelli, but I couldn’t back her to win. She’s just a tease who continually runs well and teases with her decent late splits, but decent late splits are no good if you can’t win and she hasn’t done that this time in. Closed off okay behind Extreme Bliss last time here but was never really likely. Goes in exotics…but brave to back her to win.

3 Berdibek (Bet Now: $6.50) is absolutely flying for John O’Shea and I think if he handles the step up in trip, he can only run well. Really encouraging resumption behind Penske before stepping up to the mile where he ran a narrow second to Tip Top, and that form has been franked via Gresham. Up to 2000m looks ideal and he does seem to have speed in the legs, something he clearly didn’t have previously.

6 So You Win (Bet Now: $1.90) is on the seven day back up after bolting up last Saturday at Rosehill where he was absolutely smashed in betting and if you were on, there was never a moment of concern. He tracked the speed before Avdulla got going on the turn and put the race to bed. Have to respect the fact Waller backs it up.

4 Vaucluse Bay (Bet Now: $10.00) looks suited up to 2000m. He ran over the mile here on December 29 where he settled back near last in an on pace dominated affair so his effort to make ground wasn’t too bad behind Tip Top. Think he’s crying out for further, which he gets here…the break between runs is the little niggle, but he might be value in a competitive race.

8 Sei Stella (Bet Now: $2.90) is a Matty Dale trained mare who has been a beauty since day one. Bolted up in a Highway here first up before racing on the Kensington track, taking on the big boys and girls, and she ran a beauty in defeat when second to the in form Heart Conquered. Just has to stretch her brilliance to 1100m but if she leads and gets a cheap furlong, she’ll take beating.

7 Taniko (Bet Now: $3.70) is two weeks between runs for James Cummings after getting the job done over 1200m here, appreciating a fast speed before angling into clear and finishing best. If she’s within range on the turn, she’s certainly good enough to beat these.

4 So Spirited (Bet Now: $23.00) is a So You Think gelding for Joe Pride that resumes. This five year old hasn’t raced since August 9 at Kembla over 1400m when prevailing narrowly but impressively but I will say the form out of that race has been suspect. Given a couple of quiet trials, the latest being a couple of weeks ago, but can sprint well fresh. Knockout chance for sure.

So Si Bon had his day in the sun a few weeks ago…yep, I think 5 Tom Melbourne (Bet Now: $4.60) can have his day in the sun here. This is without doubt the easiest race that Tom has contested since joining Chris Waller. He’s been taking on some top horses throughout that time and for the most part hasn’t been far away. His best runs for Waller have come first up and he was absolutely trucking under Olly in a recent Flemington jump out. He’ll go close…does he want to win?

1 Endless Drama (Bet Now: $4.60) is a classy animal for Chris Waller that resumes. He’s been a bit of an enigma since arriving from overseas but his best is clearly good enough to beat these. Tends to save his best for when he’s produced on the fresh side and the trial win last week at Rosehill when leading all the way looked outstanding to the eye. Definitely one of the leading contenders.

4 Flow (Bet Now: $4.80) is a James Cummings trained son of Street Cry who is second up. He resumed in the Buffering, trying to get into the Magic Millions Cup, but nothing really went right for him in the run and it was a bit of a horror show really behind Sold For Song. Been kept up to the mark with a trial at Rosehill, winning that impressively. Better suited at 1400m on the bigger track.

Keen on 7 Reckless Choice (Bet Now: $7.00). Steve O’Dea trains this gelding, who had trialled up enormous prior to resuming in the Magic Millions Country Cup at the Gold Coast where he got a fair way back in the run but somehow the gaps appeared, he dashed, he looked home but was bloused right on the peg by Mr Markou. Up to 1400m, bigger track, questionable depth…think he’s well placed.

6 Sparky Lad…(Bet Now: $8.00) gee he’s a bludger but this is definitely the sort of race he could fire up in. Ridden much more aggressively last start at Kensington-Randwick and was there to win on the turn but couldn’t quite finish it off when fourth to Mercurial Lad. His last couple of runs have been encouraging and this isn’t a strong race overall.

1400m is short of her best, but really keen to see the resumption of 4 Domed (Bet Now: $15.00) for John Thompson. This mare hasn’t raced since September 22 where she ran down the track at Rosehill behind The Lord Mayor, ending a disappointing campaign. Been given a good break and her two trials leading in have been quite good to the eye. Must for exotics.

Been a fair while between drinks but I reckon isn’t far off for 8 New Universe (Bet Now: $8.50). He ran over the 1550m on the Kensington track three weeks ago where the track pattern was against him but he stuck to the task pretty well in defeat behind stablemate Gresham. I reckon the mile will suit him and the speed should be genuine here, so he’ll get his chance to run on at the end.

4 Samadoubt (Bet Now: $7.00) is just about in career best form at the moment for Bjorn Baker. Tough on speed win two back on the Kensington track before racing over 1400m here where he attempted to lead all the way and gave a really good kick, fighting hard in the straight but just failing to get the win when beaten a lip by Onslaught. Is 1/1 at the mile, should lead and give a great sight.

11 King Tomlola (Bet Now: $14.00) could well be a knockout chance at odds. He ran over 1500m here a fortnight ago where he attempted to lead all the way and given he was on the rail, that was the quicksand and he couldn’t pick his feet up late behind Turnberry. Is a third up winner, weight relief and is getting fitter. Not sure he can win, but a must for exotics I think.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 13 I Am A Cool Kid

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 7 Reckless Choice

LONG SHOT: Race One Number 14 Sylvia’s Memory

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3, 4, 7, 8

Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 5, 11

Leg Three: 7

Leg Four: 4, 6, 8, 11

$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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