A strong nine race card has been assembled for Caulfield this Saturday where it is John Dillon Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (13:00) Cape Grim Beef Plate 1100m
Notation coming out does leave the race to appear as a slowly run affair, and the sharpest horse in this race should it be a sit/sprint is clearly 1 Crack The Code (Bet Now: $1.85) so I’m in her corner now. Resumed four weeks back at the Valley and showed an electric turn of foot when asked for the effort by Olly, putting the race to bed pretty quickly. Not sure about how strong the race was but in isolation, she was outstanding.
If 4 Thine Is The Power (Bet Now: $5.50) was trained by anyone else, she’d be an absolute moral. The Hayes/Dabernig team trains this girl, who is first up and appears ready to rock and roll fresh. Outstanding trial win at Bendigo, bolting up by a space and running really good time under little pressure. Form is okay, but the jumpout was very good. Market will be the guide I think.
3 Embrace Me (Bet Now: $5.50) has turned the corner in recent times for the Danny O’Brien stable. She has won her past two over the 1200m at the Valley, the latest coming four weeks back when getting the job done from off the pace. Form overall from that race looks a tad suspect, but she’s a filly in form and does find a winnable race to make it three on the bounce.
Race 2. (13:35) The Mary Bell 1100m
Will Clarken rarely gets it wrong when he brings a horse to Melbourne and I’m hoping that continues in the shape of his in form mare 6 Tiara Star (Bet Now: $4.20). She has been outstanding in three runs this time in, winning her last two, the latest at Gawler (Metro) when on speed and once Pannell gave her a click, she bolted away and won like a good horse, and that form has been franked. Confident she can measure up.
She’s burned a few holes in my pockets but concede that 5 Nodoubtaboutit (Bet Now: $6.00) is a threat. Normally she has the awful racing pattern of getting out the back and getting no luck in the straight. But she sat handy last time at Caulfield, got clear air and was there to win, but just found Chatuchak too good. That form has been franked by Just Hifalutin and I reckon she’s suited here.
4 Queen Anabel (Bet Now: $4.60) is a Rebecca Kelly trained mare who is three weeks between runs after contesting a similar race at this track/distance where she got a fair way back in the run and was never really in the hunt in a race won by Chatuchak, and that form has been ticked off via Just Hifalutin. She’s usually around the mark in these kind of races, so I’d include her in exotics.
Race 3. (14:10) Ladbrokes Odds Boost Handicap (78) 1400m
9 Indian Thunder (Bet Now: $5.50) can continue his winning ways here for mine. Hadn’t won for a little while but bounced back big time with a pretty sharp win at Stawell in fast time and his late splits were some of the best for the meeting. That run and win should do his confidence the world of good and he does find a very winnable race here if he repeats last start.
6 Portman (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Danny O’Brien trained gelding who hasn’t won in a long time but this is one of the easier races he has contested in a fair while. He ran over 1400m at Flemington a few weeks ago and stuck to the task pretty well in defeat when fourth to Mr Money Bags. He does seem better suited at Flemington than Caulfield but I think the way he’s going, he should run alright.
2 Critical Thinking (Bet Now: $11.00) can be a bit hot and cold at times but the best version of the horse should see him around the mark. Game second to Silentz two back before going way too hard last time and rightfully dropped out. Back in trip looks ideal for him, should no work from the inside gate and an improved showing wouldn’t surprise at all.
Race 4. (14:45) Blue Diamond Preview (Boys) 1000m
Happy to remain in the corner of 1 Microphone (Bet Now: $3.90). Trialled up enormous prior to debuting down the Flemington straight where he looked in a bit of trouble halfway in the run but he picked up and surged hard late to get the win in the last stride. Looks a horse with really good promise, should improve big time off that and looks one of the hardest to beat.
2 Alburq (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Michael Moroney trained colt who has placed in both career outings. Strong debut in the Clockwise Classic at Ballarat before racing at the Valley where he ran a game second to Yes Yes Yes. He’s got the race fitness/experience under the belt, should land on speed and prove hard to run down. Just needs to be stronger at the end of his race.
12 Tempo (Bet Now: $7.00) is a son of Choisir on debut for the Corstens team. He has looked a pro at the Flemington jumpouts, landing on speed each time he has stepped out and gone about his business really nicely under a hold. What’s under the hood? Not sure, but off what I’ve seen at the trials, he looks a handy type and I think he can measure up here.
Race 5. (15:20) Blue Diamond Preview (Girls) 1000m
4 Anaheed (Bet Now: $4.80), IMO, has been one of the most impressive juveniles we’ve seen so far this season. Debuted in the Victory Vein back in October at Randwick and she absolutely bolted in, winning by four lengths and running great splits, a big tick given she was on debut and the track was a bog. Sharp trial win last week at Pakenham and she appears ready to rock and roll.
1 Catch Me (Bet Now: $3.80) is a Team Snowden trained filly resuming. This girl hasn’t raced since debuting in the Gimcrack and scoring a very impressive win. IMO, the fillies hold the edge over the boys when it comes to the juveniles and her trial win was pretty good last week at Pakenham. Think she’ll improve with the run but has class/quality on her side.
5 Pretty Brazen (Bet Now: $8.50) looks an above average filly for Tony McEvoy who debuted a fortnight back down the Flemington straight where she was by herself nearer the inside and according to McEvoy, out of sight out of mind was the case for the filly and she was bloused on the line. He believes that if she has something to chase or something along side, her, she’ll be better off.
Race 6. (16:00) Catanach's Jewellers Handicap (78) 1400m
Now she’s got a win on the board, I’m confident that 5 Goldifox (Bet Now: $4.60) can go on with the job now. Was heading to the Magic Millions but unfortunately injury shelved those plans. Instead, she went to Geelong to break the maiden and she did it rather impressively on speed. Little break between runs, but the ability is there for all to see and should take some beating.
1 Social Spin (Bet Now: $2.00) is a talented three year old for Darren Weir who is in really good form. Hasn’t raced since New Years Day at Flemington where he had the lovely sit off the speed before winding into his work and proving too good for Long Leaf. Think bigger tracks are his go, so Caulfield is the little niggle, tricky gate, but does have class/quality.
8 Starouz (Bet Now: $11.00) is a progressive filly for Mick Price who is on the quick back up after breaking the maiden tag on Sunday at Benalla. I’ll say I thought she was a tad lucky to win because I think the third horse should have clearly won, but she got the maiden out of the way and coming straight to town is a good lead the stable might have an opinion of her.
Race 7. (16:40) Ladbrokes Handicap 2000m
Hard to get away from 4 Al Galayel (Bet Now: $2.70). This bloke has had an outstanding prep for the Maher/Eustace stable, his latest run seeing him win over the 2040m at the Valley four weeks ago when too sharp for Masculino, who was disappointing next start, so the form is a tad suspect, but in isolation, his run was outstanding and back on his home track, he’ll take some beating.
5 Second Bullet (Bet Now: $5.50) isn’t getting any younger but gee he’s racing well. Ran over 2000m at Flemington a fortnight ago where he was well backed and under a lovely ride from Olly, he finished too good for them. Really good record at Caulfield and that was her first run in a month, so he should have upside left in the tank and rates as a clear threat against these.
9 Crafty Devil (Bet Now: $23.00) is a mare that is just about in career best form. She strung together two nice wins before racing at Flemington in the Bagot where she settled around midfield in the run and was never going to beat Etymology but her run was full of merit. Suspect she might be on an Adelaide Cup path, so whatever she does here, she’ll improve on, but she’s got residual fitness and is in form.
Race 8. (17:20) Le Pine Funerals Handicap 1700m
I think up to 1700m will really suit 6 Guizot (Bet Now: $4.60). Dominant winner over 1700m two back at the Bool before racing over the mile at Flemington a fortnight ago where he ran well but just had no answers for the finishing burst and sprint in the legs that Silentz had. I think the 1700m will be okay for him. Think he can get back into the winners list.
The race just set up perfectly for 5 Silentz (Bet Now: $1.95) to win at Flemington two weeks back. Nice even gallop, cushy run behind the leader and was allowed to build momentum when the sprint went on, proving far too good for his rivals. Won over the mile here the start prior and he does seem to be one of many Weir runners that can build a picket fence next to his name. Clearly one of the hardest to beat.
I reckon 2 Emperor’s Way (Bet Now: $7.50) is flying for Team Snowden. Trialled up enormous on a couple of occasions prior to resuming over 1550m on the Kensington track on a day where it was very difficult to make ground, so I thought his resumption was a definite pass mark behind Gresham. Second up last prep he was five lengths off Mister Sea Wolf without luck so that does read well for this.
Race 9. (17:55) John Dillon Stakes 1400m
2 Theanswermyfriend (Bet Now: $6.00) looks hard to beat. Resumed with a super on speed win at Pakenham before contesting the Standish where he was on speed but pulled really hard in the run and had nothing left for the finale behind stablemate Whispering Brook. Up to 1400m should suit, likely leads this field for fun if he wants to and will be tough to run down.
Easy to like 8 Manolo Blahniq (Bet Now: $4.20). Loved his win in the Chester Manifold two weeks ago at Flemington, sitting wide throughout but still surged to the line and finished best to get a well deserved Stakes win next to his name. I think he’s even better suited at Caulfield than Flemington and still has upside it would seem so he has to rate highly against this lot.
3 Arbeitsam (Bet Now: $6.00) looks a touch of overs for mine. The WaterBott stable trains this bloke, who trialled up well prior to resuming in the Magic Millions Cup where he attempted to lead all the way, gave a good kick, but just felt the pinch late behind Redouble. He’ll give the cart over to Theanswermyfriend and depending on the track and how it plays, he should get a good run, either leading or trailing.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 4 Al Galayel
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 6 Tiara Star
LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 9 Indian Thunder
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 8
Leg Two: 4
Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 6
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 8, 11
$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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