25/5/2013 Horse Racing Tips & Best Bets – Randwick, WJ Mckell Cup day

Randwick will host Saturday’s feature New South Wales meeting with the headline race on the day being the WJ Mckell Cup.

The wet weather has hit Sydney this week and it is likely the racing will be run on a slow or heavy track so early market punters should take this into account when betting.

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Race One: Liberty Intl Underwriters Plte 1200m Form Guide

Back Me: Ryker has had three trials and has won all of them including a five length trial win on a heavy track. He is well bred, trained by Gai Waterhouse and ridden by in form jockey Blake Shinn and looks a good chance at odds.
Don’t Back Me: Bernabeu is a first starter who im sure has plenty of ability although first race on unaffected ground having not trialled on it is a bit of a risk at the odds.
Big Danger: Everage has won three from three on heavy tracks and is likely to get a rain affected ground on Saturday and will relish the conditions.
Roughie: Knight Templar has won and ran second at his two career starts and has shown plenty of ability. The wet track is an unknown but if he can handle it he will be right in this.

$500 Ryker Free Bet

Race Two: Qantas Frequent Flyer (bm77) 1400m Form Guide

Back Me: Ashamar won well in mid week company last start steps up in class here but looks on par in class with this field. Drops in weight and has shown to handle a wet track.
Don’t Back Me: Oompa Loompa won well last start in a decent race but goes up 4kg from that run and on a rain affected track is unlikely to make it another win.
Big Danger: Mishani Persuader won very well start albeit in lesser grade and will be tested in this race although on a heavy surface he looks well placed and will be hitting the line strong late.
Roughie: Chez Harmony will carry no weight (52kg) in the race and has performed on a rain affected track. Looks a good chance at long odds.

$500 Ashamar Free Bet

Race Three: Pixable Hcp (bm74) 2000m Form Guide

Back Me: Sir Denzel ran third in a Group 2 on a slow track two starts ago. He finds an easier field here and has shown he doesn’t mind the cut out of the ground and with a 3kg claim get into the race well in the weights.
Don’t Back Me: Prince Jester is way under the odds in the race. Won well last start but it was a mid week Sandown race that didn’t have much depth to it.
Big Danger: Airtime is a NZ galloper having his first start, he is well bred and will handle the going and should be kept safe.
Roughie: Queenstown drops in grade here and has been easy in betting which has seen her odds get out to a very backable price in the race. Should handle the heavy track and looks well placed.

$500 Sir Denzel Free Bet

Race Four: W J Mckell Cup 2400m Form Guide

Back Me: Permit finds a much more winnable race on Saturday and should go very well in this class and gets a 1kg drop in the weights from his last start.
Don’t Back Me: Motivado had a tough run but was too good last start although he has had two starts on a heavy track without placing which is a concern.
Big Danger: Vatuvei was unlucky after being held up at vital points of the race. Has had two starts on heavy tracks for two wins and he looks very hard to hold off in this race the only concern is the lack of speed.
Roughie: Fiumicino doesn’t win often but won the BMW over 2400m on a heavy track which is hard to look past when doing the form.

$500 Permit Free Bet

Race Five: Lg Mobile Hcp (bm80) 1400m Form Guide

Back Me: Gullible was unlucky last start when never getting a run during the race. Finds an easier race on Saturday and as long as she can handle the track will be winning.
Don’t Back Me: Cuddlesome won a good race at Eagle Farm last start but has been lumped 59kg in this race in which im surprised they didn’t hire an apprentice to get in with a claim.
Big Danger: Happy Hussy is a classy galloper and gets a 3kg claim in the race giving him a winnable weight for the race.
Roughie: Potions runs better on a rain affected track which she will get on Saturday and with the 3kg claim looks very well weighted in the race.

$500 Gullible Free Bet

Race Six: Scsi Hcp 1100m Form Guide

Back Me: She’s Clean has a very good first up record having won two and ran second on two occasions from four starts. Beat Appearance last start on a heavy who went on to win back to back Group 1’s. Cant get much better form than that and she handles the wet track.
Don’t Back Me: Shamus has been up for quite awhile and although he has won on rain affected tracks i don’t think he will handle it as well as some of the other runners in the race.
Big Danger: Gasquet drops a lot in weight from what looks to be a similar class race. Handles the wet track and will make her own luck in front.
Roughie: Pretty Pins with the claim gets into the race very well weighted and should go close at massive odds.

$500 She’s Clean Free Bet

Race Seven: Scream Hcp (bm80) 1200m Form Guide

Back Me: Eucumbene was my best bet last start in which he led and weakened and was disappointing. Happy to give him another chance and you can get very good value for him this week, the wet track will suit as well.
Don’t Back Me: Hendricus has had four starts on a slow surface for just the one placing, likely to get the same conditions on Saturday and with the record im happy to leave out.
Big Danger: Oakfield Commands was unlucky last start and didn’t get a clear crack at them. Finds a similar class field here and with some luck should go close.
Roughie: Combat Kitty wound up strongly last start and should improve from that run, enjoys a wet track and looks great value.

$500 Eucumbene Free Bet

Race Eight: Gifts.com.au Hcp (bm95) 1400m Form Guide

Back Me: Balavan’s two runs this preparation have been very good and a win isn’t far away. Loves the wet and will go very close on Saturday.
Don’t Back Me: Renewed Vitality no doubt prefers a wet track which it will be although he has had six starts at the track and four starts at the distance for just the one placing. Others look better value.
Big Danger: Under The Sun is coming off similar form as our on top selection which i think is the best form for this race and he looks the main danger.
Roughie: Altered Boy grows a leg on a wet track and shoudl always be included if the track is a heavy and will start at long odds.

$500 Balavan Free Bet

Best Bet: She’s Clean beat a dual Group 1 winner last start and goes into the race really well weighted in my opinion. Currently a $5 chance and can be backed each way with confidence.

Next Best: Balavan loves a wet track which he will get on Saturday and by race eight you will want to be drawn out wide which he is, looks his race on Saturday.

Best Roughie: Eucumbene was disappointing last start but finds a winnable race on Saturday and goes better in the wet which makes the $13 available look good value.