25/11/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Canterbury, Evening Star night

Not much of a race this so leaning towards the first starter, 10 Nostalgia (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Chris Waller has taken his time with this girl and the patience, I think, will be rewarded, because her two trials leading in have been sharp and despite drawing wide, she gets J Mac and the depth is a tad on the thin side.

2 Asva (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Capitalist for Team Snowden that resumes. He hasn’t raced since his debut at Warwick Farm back in June when a closing third to Destiny’s Bounty in a very encouraging debut. Spelled and albeit just one trial under the belt, he maps ideally and looks progressive unlike most.

8 Kai Tak (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very interesting runner. She was smashed in betting on Cup Day at Kembla but was terrible, beaten over seven lengths as a $1.60 favourite. She pulled up with Cardiac Arrhythmia, so a clear excuse for the failure, and generally horses bounce positively from that excuse. One for multiples.

1 Havlicek (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks the one on the up. He ran two weeks ago at this track/distance where he was a bit one paced when the sprint went on but was a definite pass mark behind all the way winner Grange Rock Star. Blinkers first time and J Mac on, they are two enough ticks for me to lean his way.

9 Maritima (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to break the maiden tag. Real eye catcher fresh behind a Stakes class horse, Kazou. Then went to the race mentioned above and chased strongly from off the speed, finishing second to Grange Rock Star. Hard fit now and has the runs on the board to give it a shake.

5 Quintillion (Bet Now:  $SP.00) draws soft and gets Blinkers first time so I think he can be an improver. He ran in a 1500m Hawkesbury maiden a tick over three weeks back and just lost momentum at a crucial stage so I thought he should have finished a touch closer. If he can settle closer in the run, he’s a sneaky chance at a price.

After a lean run, the Mark Newnham stable is absolutely flying. Eight winners from their last 26 runners so I’m backing in 6 Betsy’s Flag (Bet Now:  $SP.00) to make a winning debut. She’s had a couple of trials to get ready for start one and each time she has impressed, seemingly moving well. Gets a good run from the draw and finds a very winnable maiden to start her career.

1 Jewellery (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a daughter of Lonhro for James Cummings that resumes. She had a two run prep in the Summer to start her career, both runs coming at Caulfield and each time was far from disgraced. Long time between runs, two trials, soft trials…market will tell you if she’s ready.

8 Afterlight (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one for exotics. Ran over this track/distance two weeks back when near last in the run and while she was never a threat, I didn’t mind the way she finished her race off when third to Royal Merchant. If she is able to settle closer in the run, I think she’ll be strong at the end.

4 Black On Beauty (Bet Now:  $SP.00) deserves another chance. She was a dominant first up winner at Gosford before going here where I thought she was a good thing but I think just copped a bit too much heat on speed and felt the pinch late when third to California Surreal. I think this time around, she should get a soft lead and from there, she can dominate proceedings.

5 Arranmore (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a daughter of Astern for Chris Waller that resumes. She hasn’t raced since early July at Flemington in the Rivette Final when back in the run and finishing off the race well enough behind the then in form My Yankee Girl. Good track/distance record, sprints well fresh, J Mac on, she appeals.

8 Edna (Bet Now:  $SP.00) potentially gets asoft run on speed and could pinch a first four spot. Broke the maiden tag in style two back at Kembla before going here where she sat on speed near Black On Beauty in the race mentioned above and fought on really well to finish second. If she gets outside that horse cheaply, she’s in with a shout.

Happy to have a peanut each way on 9 Prince Aurelius (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He is on the quick back up from the Midway last Saturday where he led but was near the fence, and the inside was quicksand for the meeting, so forget he went around. Fence, you think, would be the spot to be, and he should lead comfortably. He’ll run a bold race I think.

3 Showtime Lady (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a key threat. Had been knocking on the door to win this prep and that win came last start at Wyong where she looked a moral on paper and duly saluted under a confident steer from Atkins. More depth here, but likely lands in a plum spot outside Prince Aurelius and should take beating.

5 Duke Of Gordon (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes to town as a last start winner and has upside. He had to knuckle down to win at Hawkesbury last time but that he did, finishing best out wide to win and win impressively. Tommy rode that day and he sticks here so I think he rates as one of the hardest to beat.

Have to side with 11 Tradition (Bet Now:  $SP.00). There was a lot of arrogance about the maiden win over 1900m at Newcastle last time. He was always looking the winner in the run. Just a matter of pushing the button and once he did, away he went and he was arrogant late, winning by over six. Tick over trial was good, gets in well after the claim and is the one on the up.

1 Taraashooq (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to lump 62kg but he’s an import with good talent. Was solid in two runs during the Autumn before spelling. Resumed at Gosford where he got a great run on speed and albeit didn’t quite handle the tight track, he was miles too good for them. Fitter and up to 1900m, he’ll take beating.

12 Youthful (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is dangerous at a price. I’d be forgiving of her run at Kembla last time where she got a mile out of her ground and did make up headway but was never a threat. She does have a decent engine under the hood and can certainly win this if she’s within range on the turn.

I have to give 9 Kobe Rocks (Bet Now:  $SP.00) another chance. He trialled like a bomb prior to resuming at Rosehill where the race was a sit/sprint, which didn’t suit him, so be forgiving of that effort behind Fox Fighter. Tempo should be more genuine this time around and off the trials, have to give him another chance.

8 Game Theory (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been runner up in both career outings and is bursting to win. He ran over this track/distance two weeks ago where he looked the winner when booting clear but was nabbed on the peg by a very progressive aninal, Akasawa. If he finds the front and gets control, he’ll take beating.

5 Grande Rumore (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is certainly capable of her best. Kris Lees trained mare that resumed in the Norwegian Bliss race on Cup Day at Randwick. She had good market support at odds and I thought she closed off the race pretty well without threatening behind the unbeaten mare. Good upside to come and will be strong late.

A nation will roar for Zac Lloyd if he can steer 6 Huon (Bet Now:  $SP.00) to victory. Superb winner fresh at Hawkesbury before going here where he should have won but had little luck in the straight when trying to get clear, instead finishing a close up second to Destination. Better luck this time around, he should be too good.

8 Amortal (Bet Now:  $SP.00) deserves another chance. He resumed in the Destination race mentioned above and is a total forgive IMO. Wide no cover on speed for the trip and just felt the pinch late. Stable is flying and with the Blinkers off, I think the intent will be clear. Jump, run and keep running. Hard to beat.

1 Sweet Ruby (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one for wider multiples. She resumed in the same race mentioned above where she was back near last in the run and saved ground nearer the inside, making up solid headway and was good late. Likely will be spotting them a start again but should be strong late.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 6 Huon

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 4 Black On Beauty

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 9 Kobe Rocks

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 9

Leg Two: 1, 4, 11, 12

Leg Three: 2, 5, 8, 9, 10

Leg Four: 6

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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