23/9/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Toowoomba, Toowoomba Cup day

A bumper nine race card has been set down for Toowoomba this Saturday for Toowoomba Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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6 Steady Ready (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a bit on these if he’s ready to go. Team Sears trained four year old that resumes, having not raced since Jan 28 at the Sunny Coast when near the speed throughout and was there to put the race to bed but couldn’t quite get there and tired to run third to Hard To Say. Been given a good break but trained on the track, short course, good racing style…clearly the one to beat.

1 Devastating (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a relatively straight bat option. Tony Gollan trained gelding that was a strong winner at Eagle Farm two back before racing at Doomben three weeks ago where he seemed to get every chance behind the speed but wasn’t beaten too far behind Hard To Say. If the breaks go his way, he can win for sure in what is a winnable race.

12 Compassionate (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is another example of Barry Lockwood improving a tried horse. This mare has had two runs for the stable, winning impressively fresh at Eagle Farm before going to Doomben several weeks ago where she was near the speed throughout and she tried hard, but had no answers for the sustained speed of Hard To Say. Hard fit now, she appeals.

Landed with 5 Don’tleavemenow (Bet Now:  $SP.00) but happy to just watch. Ben Ahrens trains this filly, who comes into this off the back of a win at the trials at Beaudesert, where she led throughout and won by over ten lengths. Seemingly moved very nicely but the time was very slow. But, I think just trust your eye and it told me she can take this out.

2 Herbie Town (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a nice type for John Thomas. Rothesay that has been given a solid grounding for start one with two trials under the belt, both coming here. Latest trial, he sat off the speed and looked to move quite well, running down Astin Lane late and seemingly had something in hand. Think with home track advantage and a good grounding, he’ll be around the mark.

6 Mishani Ego (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an interesting runner. Les Ross trains this filly, who hasn’t been sighted since a trial at Beaudesert back on August 15 when leading throughout and had the ears pricked throughout given the tempo was a crawl, but she moved well enough and with gate one, she should get every chance.

14 Miss Tambo (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is dangerous for Tony Gollan. Market wanted her when she resumed at Doomben several weeks back and while she didn’t get the clearest of paths, she seemingly had her chance behind stablemate Immoral in a solid enough return. Back to Mares grade, fitter, up in trip, I think she can run a much improved race.

12 Outlawed (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done little wrong since joining Rob Heathcoate and is one of the key contenders. She put together a couple of runs on the bounce before going to Doomben a fortnight back where she seemingly had every chance behind the speed and tried her guts out but couldn’t get past the very much in form Tiger Shark. Think she only has to hold her form to be around the mark.

10 Befana (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has home track advantage, which can be significant on this raceday. She comes through the Tiger Shark race from two weeks back at Doomben and I thought she did a reasonable job. To be fair, she was never really a threat, but did make up headway and was far from disgraced in defeat. Fourth up from a spell, so should be hard fit and did run a strong second fourth up last prep.

10 Fleetwood Maca (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can bounce back. She ran three weeks ago at Eagle Farm where on face value, she was a bit on the plain side behind Kir Royale, but when you break down the race in terms of sectionals, she had no hope. Think she will be much better suited here and can certainly bounce back.

6 Arnaqueur (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is another example of O’Dea/Hoysted improving a tried horse. First run for the stable came at the midweeks at Doomben when giving them a start and a beating in an impressive display at start one for the new camp. He does tend to race best on the fresh side so the several weeks between runs is fine and he strikes a winnable race.

1 Briars Kingdom (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the right racing pattern to give himself every chance. Tony Gollan trained gelding that resumed four weeks back at Doomben where he paraded like he would need the run and that’s how it panned out after sitting just off the speed, with condition giving way late in the piece behind Viminele. Might want one more run but does have runs on the board compared to some in this.

4 Kronenboug (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top but not really a race I want to get involved in. Tony Gollan trained gelding that should appreciate a rise in trip after racing over 1350m at Doomben two weeks ago, closing off nicely behind the speed when second to Preach. Fitter and up in trip, Orman takes back the ride, he is clearly the one to beat.

2 Blacklog (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is hit and miss but with his best, he can threaten at odds. He ran a few weeks ago where he got back to near last in the run and tried to make a sustained run, launching late to run second to Shopping Esprit, beaten a length in a solid effort. Hard horse to catch at times but he is certainly capable in a race like this.

11 Telephone Booth (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is dangerous. Mark Currie trained mare that ran two weeks back at Doomben where she was specked at odds and while she didn’t win, I thought she ran a very credible race in defeat behind Preach, beaten four lengths in a solid effort. Trained on the track, you always have to respect the Currie horses at Toowoomba.

6 Planned Encounter (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a three year old I have time for and confident she measures up here. She has been strong in three career outings, the latest coming three weeks ago over 1500m where I thought Marshall gave the filly a poor ride. Just found bad luck when it wasn’t there to start with and it ended up being an ugly watch. She seems a filly that will love room to move to wind into her work. 1600m, she’ll be stronger than most.

1 Adelad (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks prepped right up for this race. Three weeks between runs for Team Sears since winning over 1500m at Eagle Farm. He landed in a plum spot near the speed before angling into clear air. He showed good fight late to fend them off and win because he was there to be run down but found under pressure to fend them off and win. Hard fit, home track, the mile…all points to him running well.

5 Glass Of Rose (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing like she will appreciate a rise to the mile. She ran two weeks back at Doomben over 1350m where she got off the speed and took a while to wind into her work but once balanced up, she was pretty good to the line when third to Deep Respect. Should have no trouble with the mile and in a competitive race, I think she’s a knockout hope.

The set up is there to say 3 Wapiti (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is ready to rock and roll. This guy has had two runs after a freshen up, catching the eye behind Spaceboy over 1200m before going to the mile two weeks ago where he pretty much went around like it was a barrier trial, getting badly held up when wanting to build momentum. Track/distance winner and with Blinkers back on, there is clear intent.

9 Nikau Spur (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for the Geran camp and deserves a crack at the hometown Cup. He has won his past two, both at Doomben. Two back came over 2000m before stretching out to 2200m a fortnight back where his turn of foot came to the fore late, much like the start prior. He can win off a slow speed, a fast speed, handles all conditions…clearly likeable.

5 Linthorpe Lad (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one I can entertain for wider multiples. He has home track advantage and should be suited back to 2000m after racing two weeks back over 2200m at Doomben when back in the small field and did make up ground without threatening behind Nikau Spur. Not sure he is good enough to win but can pinch a first four spot.

It’s hard seeing anything other than a win for 2 Yellow Brick (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Yes, he has eyes on the Golden Eagle, but you’d like to assume that he’s forward enough to win the best race on his home track. Frustrating Winter Carnival for him where he finished runner up on a couple of occasions, which meant he couldn’t get a run in the Stradbroke. Been given a break and he was electric at this track/distance first up two preps ago, along with last prep at the Sunny Coast. Good luck beating him.

4 Roman Aureus (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect as one of the leading candidates behind Yellow Brick. He ran several weeks ago at Eagle Farm and if you were on, you would have had several sleepless nights figuring out how he didn’t win. He looked the winner but he couldn’t quite get past Stampe, who kept finding from on speed. Blinkers back on and the tick over trial was a good piece of work.

16 Our Magnus (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given another look for Team Geran, more so as a first four contender. I was quite keen on him when racing at Eagle Farm three weeks ago and I thought he had every chance behind the speed. He was just a bit on the plain side late in the piece behind Star Of Chaos, beaten three lengths. Back on the home track, off prior runs, he is an exotic player.

14 Maya Bay (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is second up and being trained on the track, this looks an obvious target race. He was big odds when resuming at Doomben two weeks back where he got back to near last in the run and while he was never a threat, he did make up headway and was very good in the run to the line behind Muschialli. Good second up record and can settle much closer in the run.

11 Pocket Full (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect. Stuart Kendrick trained gelding that comes here with fresh legs, having not raced since August 30 when back off the speed and kept finding the line in a good effort behind impressive all the way winner Bubba’s Bay. The depth here is near non existent and he is the one with upside/progression.

18 Count The Coin (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Kevin Kemp trained gelding that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since May 13 when producing an end of prep run and was outclassed I thought behind Character in the Members Handicap. Trained on the track so you’d assume he’s forward for this and will be strong at the end.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 2 Yellow Brick

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 6 Steady Ready

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 3 Wapiti

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 6

Leg Two: 3, 5, 9, 12

Leg Three: 2

Leg Four: 3, 4, 11, 14, 18

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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