23/9/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Underwood Stakes day

Group 1 racing returns to Caulfield on Saturday for Underwood Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

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Underwood Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Underwood Stakes

Fitter and up to the mile, I am quite keen on 3 Shock Em Ova (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for Alex Rae. He resumed at the midweeks at Sandown over 1400m where he was wide no cover throughout but he kept on and was gallant in defeat when a narrow second to No Surrender. If that run hasn’t taken much out of him, he is clearly the one to beat with good upside/progression.

5 Big Brew (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate a rise back to the mile for Team Hope. Far from disgraced over this trip two back behind Time Quest at Sandown before going to 1400m here a few weeks back and found the line strongly from off the speed when second to impressive winner First Mate. Like him back up to the mile and the depth is a bit on the thin side.

2 Polanco (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one I can entertain for wider multiples. He was big odds two weeks back at The Valley where he was ridden with intent to land on speed and he gave a decent kick but couldn’t quite see it through when a close up third to Place Of Gold. Been a while since he has found positive form but now that he has, he can go on with it.

Even with the impost, 2 First Immortal (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks too good for these. He has the potential to sneak his way into the Cups. That’s my thought after his slashing return at The Valley two weeks ago over the mile, working home with real purpose late in the piece behind Ain’tnodeeldun. Gets Bowman, a soft gate and a significant drop in class…he has these covered surely.

9 Chandon Burj (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Busuttin/Young trained mare that ran here three weeks ago. She got back in the run but was moving nicely. She tried to make a sustained run under Olly but had to settle for a second to Frigid. She has that 2000m run under the belt, which should hold her in good stead for this. Hard to beat.

8 Wahine Toa (Bet Now:  $SP.00) creates some interest. Maher/Eustace mare that resumes, having not raced since July 22 at Rosehill when producing an end of prep run, finishing down the track behind Kirkeby, who was flying at the time. Fresh at 2000m signals some level of intent and overall, this isn’t a deep race in terms of depth.

1 Red Card (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top for me. Quality mare for James Cummings that I was quite keen on when she resumed two weeks ago at Rosehill. Once Hippo took the mare to the front and got a mid race breather, it was race over and she was impressive in winning. Think she’ll take good improvement off that and with her racing style, she’ll take beating.

4 Belle Et Riche (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. She ran three weeks ago over 1400m here where she seemingly had every chance in transit behind the speed but 1400m with the big weight, it brought her undone late in the piece behind Nunthorpe. Back to 1200m with weight relief, don’t dismiss her.

6 Dazzling Lucy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a knockout hope for Tony Noonan. She resumed three weeks back in the Cockram when thrown in the deep end at Group level and while she didn’t win, she was far from disgraced in defeat behind Benedetta. Two time second up winner…I don’t think she can win, but she can pinch a first four spot.

4 Nunthorpe (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done a super job this time in for Moody/Coleman and should prove hard to beat. Strong winner three weeks ago at this track/distance, sitting on speed throughout before being clicked up by Kah, taking the front and was strong to the line in winning. Room for improvement, good racing style, she’ll take beating.

11 Yellow Sam (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done little wrong in a seven start career for Lindsey Smith. She is three weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance. She was back in the run and chasing from the outset but she ran through the pain barrier and kept finding the line when a narrow second to Nunthorpe. Think with a more positive ride, she can take this out.

Best version of 1 Laced Up Heels (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is certainly capable of taking this out. Former WA mare that has had a couple of runs for the Price/Kent camp, the latest coming in the Cockram where she was held but far from disgraced in defeat behind Benedetta, who ran well last Saturday in the Bobbie Lewis. Back to benchmark grade, up in trip, she can run a much improved race.

4 Zoukerette (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate a rise to 1400m. Maher/Eustace filly that resumed a fortnight back in the Atlantic Jewel where she got back to near last in the run and worked home with real purpose late in the piece behind Charm Stone. Has a gate to settle much closer in the run and up in trip, good upside to come, she rates highly.

15 Poifect (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a nice filly for Team Hayes and I think she can resume with a win. She hasn’t raced since her debut at Geelong back in June when an impressive winner. She did early work in the run and was entitled to knock up but she kept finding and was actually quite dominant late. Couple of winners have come from that maiden and her recent jumpout was very good. Leading chance.

2 De Sonic Boom (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for Team Freedman and rates as one of the leading contenders. Caught the eye fresh here behind Charm Stone in the Quezette before going to the Atlantic Jewel two weeks back at The Valley where she again got back but worked home with real purpose late in the piece. Off her 2YO form, no chance at 1400m, but off her two runs this prep, 1400m looks ideal.

Fitter and up to 1400m are two big ticks for 5 Corner Pocket (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Lindsey Smith trained gelding that resumed over 1200m at The Valley a fortnight back where he was near the speed throughout and tried his guts out but being first up, condition just gave way late when third to Recommendation. Great set up here to run an improved race. Hard to beat IMO.

10 Amenable (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is obviously hard to beat and can win, but $1.80/thereabouts? No thanks. He comes through the Memsie where he was ridden stone cold and perhaps was flattered by the way he got home with that cold ride, but the run was very good and has Mr Brightside form, which clearly reads well for this. Just not sure where he gets to from the gate.

6 Savannah Cloud (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has had two runs at 1200m for the prep so I think third up at 1400m, he’s ready to go. First up winner here in the Regal Roller before going to The Valley two weeks back where he just found them a bit sharp late in the piece behind Recommendation. Like him up in trip and with a more positive ride, he can take this out.

See no reason to jump off 2 Veight (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for Team McEvoy. He was kept safe in betting when resuming three weeks ago in the McNeil and despite a few nervous moments early, once he got clear air, gee he went through his gears like a good horse and had a bit in hand to win and win well. He’s got a stack of room for improvement and up to 1400m, happy to stick with him.

3 Steparty (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the obvious threat. Beware the unbeaten horse. Market was lukewarm on him when resuming in the McKenzie a fortnight back and despite that, he made a mess of them in such an impressive return. He’s got plenty of room for improvement and fitter, up to 1400m, he’ll take holding out.

Prior to the McNeil, Team Hayes were talking up 1 Little Brose (Bet Now:  $SP.00) as an Everest candidate but after the McNeil, I think they have to focus on the Guineas because he isn’t sharp enough for 1200m. He is looking like a horse wanting more ground, closing off nicely behind Veight. Hard fit now, can settle closer in the run, hard to beat.

17 Alaskan God (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to be back on track and with that said, I think he can win this. Jury was out on him early on this prep but the last couple of runs indicate he’s more than capable of measuring up in Melbourne. He ran two weeks ago in the Feehan where he was off the bit early and chasing but he ran through the pain barrier and kept finding the line in a really good effort behind Pinstriped. Hard fit now, getting to 2000m…only runs well IMO.

2 Emissary (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate a rise to 2000m. The Melbourne Cup runner up from last year…how well is he going? He was unwanted in betting when resuming three weeks ago in the Heatherlie where he paraded like he would need the run and that’s how it panned out but was far from disgraced in defeat. Much better set up this time around and has runs on the board.

9 Virtuous Circle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has eyes on the Cups so I think he can be a big improver here. He resumed two weeks back in the Feehan where he just found the race too sharp, but I will say he wasn’t too bad late albeit beaten 12.5L. He is a 2000m+ horse so getting to ten furlongs here and onto the bigger track, fitter, I am confident he’ll run a much improved race.

8 Without A Fight (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a high class animal for Team Freedman and confident he resumes with a win. He hasn’t raced since an outstanding Brisbane prep, the last start being a dominant win in The Q22. Has eyes on the Caulfield Cup and his trial/jumpout work indicates he is flying. Dry track, 1800m, turn of foot, strong late…he’s clearly the one to beat.

10 Soulcombe (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks like he will rock and roll this Spring. Not sure he beat much fresh in the Heatherlie three weeks ago but the manner in which he put them away and his change up speed when asked by Shinn was something else. Any hint of improvement off that, never mind holding his form, and he’ll take beating.

5 Tuvalu… (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is he back on track? I am saying yes. Looked all over a winner two weeks back in the Feehan at The Valley when presented into the race under Shinn but he couldn’t quite get there when a narrow second to Pinstriped. 1800m is the obvious query with him but I reckon if they go to the old tactics of sitting on speed, that will give him his best chance.

10 On The Lead (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to be sneaky flying for Team Freedman. He resumed two weeks ago at Rosehill where he was back near last in an on speed domination so while he was never a winning threat, he did make up solid ground in a good return behind quality mare Red Card. He has run well Melbourne way previously and right down in the weights, he can take this out.

4 Midwest (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and prove hard to run down. He ran three weeks back here when unwanted in betting. He attempted to lead throughout and gave a strong kick but couldn’t quite finish it off when second to Asfoora, but he did beat the rest comfortably. Good racing style and with the run under the belt, he appeals.

11 Rose Quartz (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Grahame Begg trained mare that resumes. This girl is first up, having not raced since Jan 14 when placing in the Standish down the Flemington straight behind noted track specialist Snapper. Good fresh horse who likes Caulfield and has jumped out well leading in. Watch the market.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 8 Without A Fight

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 2 First Immortal

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 5 Corner Pocket

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 2, 3

Leg Two: 2, 3, 5, 9, 17

Leg Three: 8

Leg Four: 3, 4, 10, 11

$50 Investment = 125% of the dividend if successful

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