23/11/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Cranbourne, Cranbourne Cup day

Ten races will be run and won at Cranbourne on Saturday. Weather is fine, track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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8 Damehood (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a filly with good talent for Ciaron Maher. She gave them a start and a beating to win on debut at Ballarat before going to Flemington on Cup Day where she got back but kept finding the line in a really good effort. The rise to 1200m is ideal and is a filly on the up with improvement/upside.

3 Romani Ite Domum (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should land near the speed and take running down. He was a strong winner on Geelong Cup Day, landing near the front and credit to him, he was there to be run down but he found under pressure to win. If 1200m is okay, he’s around the mark.

4 Stormbourg (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a handy gelding for John Moloney that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since May 11 at Caulfield when placing behind a good horse, the Group l performed Tropicus. First up at 1200m I do like and he has jumped out well, so watch the market.

1 Mount Rinjani (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the way I am leaning but this isn’t a strong race for mine. Moody/Coleman trained gelding that broke the maiden status over 1500m at The Valley last time out where he gave them a start and a beating, and was quite strong to the line in winning. Looks a horse that wants more ground, which he gets here, and this isn’t a deep contest.

2 King Of Enterprise (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has home track advantage and the stable love to target this race day. He comes through the Carbine Club from three weeks ago when outclassed on paper but he didn’t disgrace himself in defeat behind Aeliana. 2000m should be fine and he finds a race with not much depth.

6 Reel Hot (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is bred to eat up a staying trip so keen to see how he goes. He ran over the mile on Ararat Cup Day in a maiden where off speed and while he was never threatening, he kept finding the line in a good effort. Up in trip I like and has good upside.

7 Ahuriri (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is on track for Chris Waller I feel. I thought she was going to rip home and win at Flemington on Cup Day but the bias kicked in and she couldn’t pick up out wide late in the piece. She goes much better racing the Melbourne way I feel and off last run, she’s very hard to beat here.

3 The Genius (Bet Now:  $SP.00) won at this track first up and hasn’t been too bad in two subsequent runs, the latest being at The Valley when near the speed and tried hard but couldn’t quite see it through behind Rise To It. He was a month between runs, so with room for improvement and Shinn on, he can run a much improved race.

9 Adonis Kick (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will have no issue with the trip and is racing pretty well at the moment for Peter Gelagotis. He ran over 2600m at Ballarat last time out when off the speed before being presented wider for clear air and he tried hard but just battled the last 100m or so when third. Not sure he wins, but a must for exotics.

Leaning towards 2 Overactive (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He ran over 1200m during Cup Week at Flemington when outclassed on paper but he didn’t disgrace himself in defeat behind Rey Magnerio. That was Stakes company. Now drops to a moderate 70 so he’s the one to beat.

5 Dual Pressure (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to win for Matty Ellerton. He ran down the straight two weeks ago at Flemington when off the speed and kept finding the line in a really good effort behind Pisanello, who would be odds on here. That form reads very well and up to 1300m looks ideal.

10 Nation State (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can bounce back against this level after racing down the straight at Flemington on Champions Day when outclassed on paper and ran accordingly behind Pisanello, who would be odds on against these. Tricky draw, but with good cover, a drag into the race, he can take this out.

4 Fission (Bet Now:  $SP.00) doesn’t exactly win out of turn but he is racing well and has home track advantage. He has run over 955m at The Valley his past couple, the latest on Nov 1 when back near last and while he was never really a threat, he worked home strongly. Likely spots them a start again but if he can get a drag into the race, he can launch over the top.

10 Trapeze Warrior (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be respected. He ran down the straight at Flemington last time when on speed and he tried hard but had no answer for the finale of Pisanello. Back to 1000m is ideal, he’ll press forward and take running down.

9 Tax Free Prophet (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is dangerous with his best. He comes through a 64 at Mornington where he got a beaut run in transit before getting clear air and away he went, drawing clear to win and win well. He does seem a short course type so is suited to 1000m, and I say can win this.

12 Duke Of Condicote (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks one of the better gambles on the card. He comes through the Alma Rise race from Oaks Day at Flemington where he was one of the real eye catchers of the meeting, closing off with real purpose late in the piece. If this was 2400m on a big track, moral, but even with this set up, I say he’s still hard to beat.

10 Ambassadorial (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is three weeks between runs since racing over 2000m at Rosehill where he attempted to lead throughout and gave a decent enough sight but just couldn’t quite finish it off and had to settle for a placing behind State Of America. Has that 2000m run under the belt, which holds him in good stead.

11 Commando Drift (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is in with a shout for Tom Sadler. This girl comes through the Herbert Power at Caulfield where she was outclassed on paper but didn’t disgrace herself in defeat behind Herman Hesse. Maps to do no work and be strong late.

8 Marble Arch (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the key threats for Team Hayes. She ran over 1400m on Cup Day where she got a fair way out of her ground but I really liked the way she finished her race off in defeat behind Bel Air. Back to Mares grade I do like and with a more positive ride, she takes beating.

1 Tiz Invincible (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has class on her side and class will carry her a long way. She comes through the HKJC on Cup Day at Flemington where she tried her guts out but just couldn’t quite finish the job when a narrow second to Fancify, who led throughout and was too good. With class on her side, she commands respect.

3 Konasana (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. She ran third to Fancify on Cup Day where she had the beaut run in transit and presented to win when clear but couldn’t quite see it through but was good in defeat. Hard fit now, Waller polish, she’s one of the leading contenders.

2 Baraqiel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will take a power of beating here. Thrown in the deep end two weeks ago in the Champions Sprint and he ran a credible race but the run confirmed that he is not a straight track horse. Back to a bending track, I think he will be winning if there is petrol left in the tank.

6 Rey Magnerio (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a beauty for Griffiths/De Kock and has found winning form after a frustrating run of outs. The win came at Flemington, knuckling down with purpose late to nail Front Page on the peg in a blanket finish. He has home track advantage, he’s in winning form, strong late…appeals.

8 Robrick (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a key threat. He comes through the Rey Magnerio race from two weeks back at Flemington. He got back off the speed but worked home strongly, just missing out on the win when a narrow second. If he can get a better run in transit and be within range, he has the finale to win.

1 Pinstriped (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has home track advantage and has class. He comes through the Champions Mile where he got into a decent spot in transit and presented to be some sort of threat but just couldn’t quite go with them late but was far from disgraced behind Mr Brightside. Back to this level, he takes a power of beating.

9 It’s A Wild Night (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very interesting runner. Mark Walker trained gelding that makes his Australian debut after doing good things in New Zealand, resuming over 1200m at Otaki several weeks ago and was good late. The rise to the mile straight away I find interesting but the big tick is B Shinn booked.

7 Von Hauke (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying I feel. He ran in the Champions Mile and I thought ran a super race in defeat behind Mr Brightside, making headway in inferior ground and was strong to the line. First this time prep IMO that he’s been placed to advantage and should be one of the hardest to beat.

8 Oh Too Good (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the one to beat, and clearly. He should have won the Country Final on Oaks Day but wasn’t given the best of steers by Lane, wide no cover throughout, and just got the staggers late, nabbed on the peg by Electric Impulse. If there is petrol left in the tank, I think good luck beating him.

9 Igotcha (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Ciaron Maher trained mare that is racing in career best form. She ran second over the mile at The Valley last time out where she was near the speed and she tried hard but couldn’t quite get there when second to Delicious Tycoon. Good racing style and in form, she commands respect.

4 Mathletic (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a handy galloper that had jumped out well prior to resuming in the Subzero on Cup Day where he got off the speed and tried hard but couldn’t quite finish the race off behind impressive winner Cloudland. Like him up in trip and he does have the talent to measure up.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 2 Baraqiel

NEXT BEST: Race Ten Number 8 Oh Too Good

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 1 Pinstriped

Quaddie (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 3, 8, 10

Leg Two: 2

Leg Three: 1, 4, 7, 9, 13

Leg Four: 8

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