The Royal Ascot Carnival for 2019 concludes this Saturday night, headlined by the Diamond Jubilee Stakes (1200m) and the Hardwicke Stakes (2400m).
Race 1. (23:30) Chesham Stakes 1400m
9 Lope Y Fernandez (Bet Now: $2.50) is a son of Lope De Vega for Aidan O’Brien that was well supported when starting fav on debut over 1400m at the Curragh and there was a bit to like about the win, sitting near the speed throughout before taking the lead 300m from home and from there he powered clear like a good horse. Is getting short enough in betting but off the debut, looks the one to beat.
12 Pinatubo (Bet Now: $3.75) is 2/2 to start his career for Charlie Appleby. Shamardal colt that debuted with a win at Wolverhampton before racing over 1200m at Epsom where he was tardy away but gathered himself to show early speed before taking the front around 250m out and was there to be beaten but found plenty late and was much too good. Can’t knock a winner.
8 Joker On Jack (Bet Now: $51.00) is an interesting runner. Wesley Ward trains this colt, that debuted with a sharp win over 900m at Keeneland before going to 1200m at Newbury where he was all over the shop under Frankie and found nothing late in a race which has produced a couple of subsequent winners. I think if you can overlook that and go off his debut win, he’s in the mix.
Race 2. (00:05) Jersey Stakes 1400m
13 Space Blues (Bet Now: $3.25) does look the obvious. Charlie Appleby trains this son of Dubawi, and I saw a stat online recently that the Dubawi progeny has a 25% winning record at Royal Ascot the last 90 odd runners. This bloke has won his past two, the latest coming over 1400m at Epsom when pulling a bit in the run but found plenty when asked for the effort and was too good. Tempo should be genuine so hopefully he can relax a bit better in the run.
12 So Perfect (Bet Now: $5.50) is an Aidan O’Brien trained filly who comes here in good form. Resumed over 1400m and for mine, that trip just saw her out when a close up third. Went back to 1200m at Naas and she bolted in. Interesting she heads back up to 1400m because I did have doubts on her at the distance first up but can’t really go against what the stable thinks is best.
Frankie Dettori has had a fab Royal Ascot for 2019 and 7 Marie’s Diamond (Bet Now: $15.00) is an outside winning chance. He ran third to Space Blues in the Epsom race mentioned above and I thought he had his chance when on speed and he tried hard but was no match for the Appleby runner. Off that, can’t see him turning the tables, but can’t rule out anything Frankie is steering.
Race 3. (00:40) Hardwicke Stakes 2400m
Keen to see how 3 Masar (Bet Now: $4.00) goes. Derby winner from last year who was talked about as a chance for the Prince Of Wales, but instead runs over the longer trip in the Hardwicke and for mine that’s a decent enough lead that he’s ready to go over a suitable trip. Hasn’t raced since that great win at Epsom last year when finishing best. Just think he’s the one on the up and hopefully is ready fitness wise.
2 Defoe (Bet Now: $3.75) is a Roger Varian trained gelding who comes here off the back of a Coronation Cup win where he was clearly headed and looked in a bit of trouble but stayed on very strongly and he remarkably came back to get the win. His form on wet ground is very good and overall, this isn’t the strongest race going around so he has to be respected here.
9 Lah Ti Dar deserves another chance. Was really keen on her running well in the Coronation Cup and for the most part, she looked to travel well, but when it came to the crunch, she really struggled on the track in a total forgive I think behind Defoe. Back on a more forgiving track, and she definitely bounce back and good to see that Frankie remains on.
Race 4. (01:20) Diamond Jubilee Stakes 1200m
Looking at this race with Blue Point out because I doubt he’ll run. 16 The Tin Man (Bet Now: $12.00) is getting on in years but he does have a wonderful record at Ascot and in this race, having won it in 2017 and was close up last year. On face value, he was disappointing first up at Windsor but I’d be putting that down to the big weight. Just looked a touch bogged down with it. Proven performer at the track/distance and you’re getting a decent enough price. Each way all day for mine.
8 Invincible Army (Bet Now: $7.00) is a James Tate trained four year old who has been quite impressive in both runs back from a spell. Sharp first up win at Doncaster before going to York where he was a bit of a query on testing ground, but he passed with flying colours and was dominant. Unlucky in the Commonwealth Cup last year but clearly looks a better horse 12 months later.
14 Sands Of Mali (Bet Now: $15.00) does look another at good value. Thought he was a touch disappointing first up at Hamilton when tracking the speed and not really going on with it behind Brando, but prior form saw him run well at Meydan behind Blue Point and does boast a win over Invincible Army, along with a placing behind The Tin Man, plus did win the Champions Sprint last year.
Race 5. (02:00) Wokingham Stakes 1200m
16 Danzeno (Bet Now: $8.00) is eight years of age but gee he looks to have come back in enormous order. Resumed over 1000m at Nottingham where he tracked the speed before being given clear air and he showed a pretty decent turn of foot to win, admittedly beating a field clearly inferior to this, but going back through his form, he did run fourth to Blue Point in a Stakes race here, which reads well for this.
3 Cape Byron (Bet Now: $7.00) is a Roger Varian trained son of Shamardal who comes through the Victoria Cup over 1400m here when back off the speed before Atzeni got him clear air around 400m out and he let down strongly to get the job done. Draws to get good cover from the gate and a fast run 1200m looks right up his alley here. One of the hardest to beat.
11 Gunmetal (Bet Now: $12.00) was good first up over 1200m at Newmarket before stepping back to 1000m at York which was a negative for him but liked the way he found the line over the shorter trip. Like him third up at 1200m and will be another that will be suited by a good speed and if the breaks go his way, he can definitely win form an in form trainer in David Barron.
Race 6. (02:35) Queen Alexandra Stakes 4300m
9 Max Dyanmite (Bet Now: $3.75) looks better than these doesn’t he? Classy animal for Willie Mullins who is first up, having not raced since late October when down the track in a Group l at Chantilly. First up at 4300m is such a tough ask, but this stable is probably the only one in the world you can back with confidence in doing that and good lead that Ryan Moore takes the ride.
2 Corelli (Bet Now: $6.00) has the Gosden/Dettori factor and should take some beating. This Point Of Entry gelding who resumed over 2400m at Newmarket where he was near the speed and fought on well in defeat when a narrow second to Baghdad. Think he’ll have no issue with the trip and the way Dettori has ridden this way, you can’t really ignore anything he steers.
1 Pallasator (Bet Now: $9.00) could be a knockout chance. This bloke resumed over 2800m at Leopardstown when near the speed throughout and looked to be going alright but as soon as he was asked for the effort, he found nothing and was disappointing. He does have good form at this distance range albeit over the jumps so interesting to see how he goes against this lot.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Six Number 9 Max Dynamite
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 13 Space Blues
LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 16 The Tin Man
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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