22/10/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Belgravia Stakes day

The Ascot Carnival warms up on Saturday, headlined by the return of star filly Amelia’s Jewel in the Belgravia Stakes (1200m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out eight metres for the entire circuit.

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Belgravia Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Belgravia Stakes

Tricky juvenile race. For the sake of a tip, on top is 2 Catch The Red Eye (Bet Now: $13.00). This gelding has had a couple of trials to get ready for start one, the latest being over 850m at Belmont when leading and going about his business nicely when third to A Lot Of Good Men, second being Brave Halo, who won the 2YO race two weeks ago. He’ll land on speed and give himself every chance.

1 Brave Halo (Bet Now: $1.65) looks a nice horse. He toughed it out strongly to win a fortnight back. It was a good battle down the straight with the Miller odds on pop and in a driving go, he was strongest. He has the race experience under the belt, which should hold him in good stead.

6 Guarding Heaven (Bet Now: $8.00) is a daughter of Safeguard for Ryan Hill that is on debut. She comes here off the back of a trial win over 400m at Lark Hill, so it’s hard to get a real gauge on how talented she is, but the stable can get them to fire early in a campaign, so watch the market.

I think each way, you can’t go wrong backing 4 Olga Luisa (Bet Now: $5.00). This mare is getting on in years but she is racing with a healthy amount of zest. Led throughout at this track/distance two weeks ago and gave a strong kick but just couldn’t quite finish it off when a narrow fourth to River Beau. Gets Paul Harvey on, she’ll lead, run, roll and be hard to run down.

3 Sneaky Chance (Bet Now: $4.50) deserves another look. She resumed in the River Beau race mentioned above where she seemingly had a good run in transit from just off the speed but she failed to fire and was rather plain late. Was very genuine when last in work so she has credits in the bank to get another chance.

2 Ghost Who Walks (Bet Now: $3.90) will need luck from the inside gate but his best is good enough to be dangerous. He ran in the River Beau race where he was back near last and pretty much went around like it was a barrier trial. IMO he is more effective at Belmont than Ascot, but off last run, he’s right in the mix.

Siding with 1 Ginger Baker (Bet Now: $5.00) in a tricky race. He ran over 1500m here two weeks ago where he was wide with cover before being presented wider and loomed to win but just couldn’t quite get there behind Tinsnip. Gets a suck run from the inside gate and in a race like this, it may well come down to who gets run of the race.

2 Henchard (Bet Now: $4.00) is hard to beat. He was too bad to be true at Kalgoorlie two back so Adam Durrant backed him up a week later and he ran a much improved race here, just missing out on the win when beaten a lip by Tinsnip. Just needs luck from a tricky gate but should be around the mark.

10 Censure (Bet Now: $16.00) is the sneaky knockout chance. She ran in the Tinsnip race mentioned above where she got back to near last in the run and was never really a threat but liked the way she finished her race off when a close up fifth. If she’s within range on the turn, she’ll be dangerous.

If this does become a proper staying contest, then 5 Blackwater Bay (Bet Now: $3.40) is the pony to beat. He lapped up the staying contest two weeks ago, where it become survival of the fittest, and his staying prowess came to the fore in a strong display. He’s found winning form and think he can hold it.

6 Mystery Island (Bet Now: $3.80) is backing up for the third Saturday on the bounce. Bit on the plain side in the race mentioned above. He then went to the mile last Saturday, got the dream run in transit and was too good for them in a strong display. Back up in trip now, he appeals.

9 All Man (Bet Now: $21.00) isn’t one I could back with confidence but is one for wider multiples. He ran over 2200m at Northam last time out and seemed to have every chance late when third to the well specked Jafetica, albeit perhaps the race shape didn’t suit. Harder here, doubt he wins, but a first four threat.

Back in trip I find interesting with 5 Never Sober (Bet Now: $5.50) but he is a horse that is racing in good form. He won over 1800m here two weeks ago, aided by a peach steer and in a driving finish, he was able to cling on and the bob went his way over Queen Alina. If this is a truly run 1400m, he’ll be strongest late.

12 Uncompromised (Bet Now: $9.50) is a Michael Grantham trained gelding that commands respect. Market said it would be a prep run when he resumed here last Wednesday but I actually thought he ran a really good race from just off the speed behind the in form Popcorn Trader. Fitter, ideal map, key threat.

6 Hear Me Sing (Bet Now: $10.00) deserves another look at a price. I’d be forgiving of the run two weeks back here behind Karli’s Karma given he was wide no cover on speed, dropping out to finish down the track. If he gets a better run in transit, I think his best is good enough to be dangerous.

I think 9 Above The Peg (Bet Now: $2.35) is the way to go in a tricky race. Simon Miller trained gelding that resumes, having not raced since June 4 in the Raconteur where he got back and worked home strongly late without threatening. Liked the way he went in a recent trial and is the one on the up.

1 Mood Swings (Bet Now: $4.40) is such a genuine animal and he’ll be around the mark. He ran over 1000m here two weeks ago when near the speed throughout and tried his guts out. Thought he was going to win for a few strides but was nabbed by River Beau. Up to 1200m no issue, lands on speed and is tough.

Back up in trip I do like for 3 Kia Ora Star (Bet Now: $9.50). His recent runs have come over short course trips and while he has been going well, he has been somewhat run off his legs and failed to pick up. I think the 1200m tempo won’t be as hard, he can relax, and prove to be a knockout hope.

She’s a star 2 Amelia’s Jewel (Bet Now: $2.25) and potentially could be the best 3YO in Australia. She was clearly the best 2YO in Australia last season and it was a shame we didn’t see her head East. She resumes for an eagerly anticipated campaign, and with two trials under the belt, she’s ready to go. Maps ideally, she’s the one.

6 Rumour Says (Bet Now: $6.00) has good talent. She resumed two weeks ago in the 3YO Classic when wide throughout but she kept finding the line when third to Snowdome. Encouraging return from her and while I doubt she beats Amelia’s Jewel, she does have the run under the belt.

5 Uncle Gerard (Bet Now: $26.00) is one I have eyes on from a WA Guineas perspective. I don’t think he’s sharp enough to be a winning threat but he is a promising animal who will be strong late if they overdo it in front. Must for multiples given he will sit back and do no work.

3 Trade War (Bet Now: $9.50) has returned in pretty good order. He resumed a fortnight back here where he got back off the speed and was never a threat, but liked the way he finished his race off behindg Bustler. Fitter, if he can settle closer in the run, I think he’ll be right in the mix.

There is enough body of work to suggest that 14 Real Danger (Bet Now: $14.00) is no good at Ascot. Ran at this track/distance a fortnight back where she seeminglu got a soft run on speed and couldn’t quite finish it off behind Bustler. Given her Ascot record, I couldn’t back her to win, but this race isn’t strong overall.

7 Miss Vasari (Bet Now: $16.00) will be spotting these in front a decent start but should be strong at the end. She was very good from the back two weeks back where she was near last in the run and was good without threatening behind a beauty, Karli’s Karma. Dangerous if she can settle closer in the run.

I want to give 5 Billy Ray (Bet Now: $4.50) another chance. He’s on the seven day back up after racing over 1400m here last Saturday where he got back and made up some headway without threatening behind Trix Of The Trade. I think fitter and up to the mile are two big ticks, and CJP takes over.

6 Chili Is Hot (Bet Now: $10.00) is probably better suited at Belmont than Ascot but the first up run was quite encouraging. That came two weeks ago here when back in the run and worked home well late in a sit/sprint behind Em Tee Aye. If the good gate is used to advantage, she has the quality to take this out.

10 Speed Dream (Bet Now: $7.00) is third up from a break and should just about be at peak fitness. Ran over 1400m here two weeks back behind Karli’s Karma where he drew inside and albeit was never beating the dominant winner, I think he should have finished closer. Dangerous if the breaks go his way.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 2 Amelia’s Jewel

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 9 Above The Peg

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 3 Trade War

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 9

Leg Two: 2

Leg Three: 3, 5, 7, 9, 14

Leg Four: 5, 6, 10, 14

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