In Golfing terms, it’s called ‘Moving Day’. Turnbull Stakes Day at Flemington this Sunday fits that descriptions with the contenders from the pretenders for all the major races for the Spring being sort out. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:10) : Maribyrnong Trial Stakes 1000m:
Back Me: Going to take the gamble on 3 Coroglen (Bet Now: $13.00) for Team Hawkes. These early two year old races, especially at Flemington, are dartboard jobs, but this bloke is in the right stable, he’s well bred and though he hasn’t caught my attention at the jump outs, I am sure he would have had a look down the straight, which is a big advantage.
Big Danger: 9 Redcore (Bet Now: $8.50) is a Greg Eurell trained son of Choisir who has trialled twice leading in, the latest coming last Monday where he ran second and looked impressive to my eye in running second. Stable aren’t normally known for their two year olds, but this one appears well above average.
Roughie: 15 Splashette (Bet Now: $23.00) is a filly trained by Jarrod McLean who comes here off the back of a handy trial placing at Cranbourne where she was pushed late but looked okay. The good lead here is that Williams is booked. Don’t be surprised to see a market push.
Race Two (12:50) : Poseidon Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: Going to give 3 Peacock (Bet Now: $6.50) another look here. I was keen on him when resuming on Newcastle Cup Day after an impressive trial, but as soon as you saw him in the mounting yard, your ticket was confetti. He had a belly on him, the market saw that and he ran accordingly. Form from the previous prep reads pretty well and I think on potential, he is one of the better engaged runners here.
Big Danger: 5 Styleman (Bet Now: $5.50) had really good form behind him prior to resuming on the Pakenham Synthetic where he sat on speed most of the way and drew right away late to win by over six lengths and ran pretty good time. This is a rise in depth, but stable is going very well at the moment and he comes here with enormous upside.
Roughie: 1 Trenchant (Bet Now: $8.50) was unwanted in betting when resuming in the Danehill and he ran accordingly, finishing down the track behind Saracino in a race where the form held up okay in the Guineas Prelude last Saturday. Back onto a bending track suits and he did bolt up over this track/distance last time in.
Race Three (13:25) : UCI Stakes 1800m:
Back Me: 4 Kent (Bet Now: $8.50) trialled outstanding prior to resuming in the Up And Coming behind Divine Prophet where he looked sluggish on the shifty track before going to Canterbury where he just ran out of petrol late behind Maryore after looking the winner on the turn. Third up at 1800m looks perfect and shapes up as a real contender for a couple of majors. Keen on him.
Big Danger: 6 Rocketeer (Bet Now: $6.00) has been quite unlucky at his past couple, with a couple of poor rides costing him. The ride was too negative two back at the Valley behind Hey Doc before going to Caulfield where Oliver probably made the wrong call when staying in, but he picked up very strongly late. 1800m at Flemington looks perfect, he’s hard fit and in super form.
Roughie: 13 Beach Life (Bet Now: $12.00) took an eternity to wind up last start at Mornington but he attacked the line and won with real purpose like a horse destined to figure in the Derby. He’ll eat up the 1800m on a big track and is drawn to get cover and launch late.
Race Four (14:00) : Gilgai Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: The $8 on offer for 1 Under The Louvre (Bet Now: $2.75) all-in for the Sir Rupert Clarke last week looked outstanding shopping, but I was a sucker for him and he got scratched. Got too far back at Caulfield when resuming behind Redzel before being in the worse ground in the Bobbie Lewis behind Faatinah. If he gets clear running out wide here, he can turn the tables for sure and get the win.
Big Danger: 4 Faatinah (Bet Now: $4.80) was the winner of the Bobbie Lewis, and while he was in the best ground, which was out wide, he did win and that’s all you can do. Harder here, but hard to ignore the win. This will tell us whether or not he is a genuine Group l sprinter.
Roughie: 2 The Quarterback (Bet Now: $5.50) is probably the best horse in the race. He resumes for Robbie Griffiths after a successful Autumn, which of course was highlighted by his win in the Newmarket at the track/distance, and he is the last horse to beat Chautauqua. Trials have been sharp, he flies fresh…big watch.
Race Five (14:35) : The Bart Cummings 2500m:
Back Me: Think there is a roughie here that could be worth an each way ticket at huge odds, and that is 4 Pentathlon (Bet Now: $13.00). Very handy stayer for John Wheeler from NZ who performed very well during the Autumn Carnival over there, highlighted by close up efforts in the Wellington Cup and Auckland Cup, the latter seeing him finish near Sacred Master, who would probably start favourite here if he took his place. Loomed to be a contender last time out at Hastings, but it was a day where it was very hard to make any significant ground out wide. He’ll love the big surroundings of Flemington and getting up to 2500m.
Big Danger: I think this run well tell us how genuine of a Melbourne Cup contender 2 Excess Knowledge (Bet Now: $10.00). Has just been fair in two runs this time in, the latest in the Naturalism where he was near the inside, which wasn’t the place to be. From all reports, he worked well on Monday at Moonee Valley and is ticking over nicely.
Roughie: 9 Lucques (Bet Now: $9.00) has the form at the track/distance, winning two from two, the latest of those coming last start where he was just too tough for the milk drinker that is Black Tomahawk. Is that the form to win here? No, but one thing going for him is that he is tough and will stay all day.
Race Six (15:15) : TAB Edward Manifold Stakes 1600m:
Back Me: 2 Exocet (Bet Now: $4.80) was a good maiden winner at Geelong two back before producing a brilliant finish to get the job done impressively a tick over two weeks back at Caulfield. She’ll eat up the Flemington mile here and looms as a major contender.
Big Danger: 5 Eleonora (Bet Now: $5.00) took an age to wind up last time out on the Geelong Synthetic but gee there was alot to like about her last 100m. She powered to the line and ran through it with real purpose. Mile will be no issue, soft gate and Oliver sticks.
Roughie: 14 Classic Diva (Bet Now: $17.00) was crunched in betting to win last time out at Echuca in a maiden and she pretty much looked in control throughout, winning the race albeit narrowly. The trial prior to the debut was superb and she is certainly up to this level. This soon though? Time will tell.
Race Seven (15:55) : Yellowglen Turnbull Stakes 2000m:
Back Me: Melbourne will get to see the real 4 Hartnell (Bet Now: $1.70) here. 12 months ago he came here and was good, but not great. That has all changed now. He has been outstanding at his past two outings, spanking his rivals. But what I will say is that he has beaten nothing. Different kettle of fish here, taking on the big boys, but he seems to have really turned the corner and I am happy to be on his back. Flemington 2000m will suit him perfectly.
Big Danger: 9 Jameka (Bet Now: $4.80) was given a 12/10 steer from Nick Hall to spank them last time out in the Naturalism Stakes (2000m). She was already assured a Caulfield Cup start but that effort suggests she’s right in the game and the market reflects that. Leading contender here I think. Just wondering if there will be improvement to come.
Roughie: 10 Sofia Rosa (Bet Now: $51.00) was a real eye catcher I thought late in the piece three weeks back in the Makybe Diva (1600m) here. She got back to near last in the run and peeled the widest, and though she was never a winning threat, she did close off very strongly late. I’ve already had something on her for the Caulfield Cup, but I think she can be ultra competitive here.
Race Eight (16:35) : Blazer Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: 11 Telopea (Bet Now: $3.70) is on the back up after racing last Saturday in the Sir Rupert Clarke (1400m) where she looked very unlucky behind Bon Aurum, getting held up on the turn and nearer the inside. Never really clear, so the run against the big boys was a beauty. Draws well here and Oliver jumps aboard. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: 9 Metaphorical (Bet Now: $7.00) resumed in the Lets Elope (1400m) here where she was back in the ruck and picked her way through withut a great deal of luck behind Don’t Doubt Mamma. She has a really good second up record, and if she can get clear running and blend at the right time, she’ll be a huge threat.
Roughie: 16 Niminypiminy (Bet Now: $31.00) is a bit of a milk drinker in terms of being a winner, but she does race quite well. She ran against the mares at Caulfield last time out and closed off okay late in the piece behind Group l performer Alaskan Rose. She draws the right part of the track, where she can get three wide cover and launch late, and she has the services of McEvoy.
Race Nine (17:15) : Paris Lane Handicap 1400m:
Back Me: Leaning towards 7 Tashbeeh (Bet Now: $9.00) in what looks a really good race. He ran a very game fourth to Black Heart Bart in the Memsie before racing over this track/distance where he was left in front and that wasn’t his go I thought when fourth to subsequent Group l winner Bon Aurum. He should be just about ready now fitness wise, he has the right form behind him…one of the hardest to beat for me.
Big Danger: 9 Santa Ana Lane (Bet Now: $5.50) hasn’t had much luck in three runs this prep. Badly checked/held up fresh behind Redzel before going to the Bobbie Lewis where he was in the worst ground behind Faatinah. He then ran at Caulfield and was held up at a crucial stage behind Group l performer Keen Array. 1400m at Flemington is perfect, and if he gets clear running he’ll take some beating.
Roughie: 8 Yesterday’s Songs (Bet Now: $19.00) was sharp at the jump outs prior to resuming in the Testa Rossa behind Keen Array in that race mentioned above where he got back in the ruck and closed off well late. I think that hard fought Wangoom win in the Autumn may have turned the corner for him, and I can see him running a beauty here at odds.
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 4 Hartnell
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 4 Kent
VALUE: Race Five Number 4 Pentathlon
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 5, 8, 13, 14
Leg Two: 4
Leg Three: 2, 4, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 16, 17
Leg Four: 4, 7, 8, 9, 11, 14
$50 Investment= 18.51% of the dividend if successful
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