21/3/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill, Golden Slipper day

One of the great days of Australian racing is Golden Slipper Day and the 2020 edition rolls around this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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Have to be with 8 Hilo (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS). Resumed as a gelding at the midweeks on the Kenso track and despite sitting wide throughout, he was just far too classy for his rivals and made a fab return to racing after a Spring prep which saw him contest some good races. Sprinting looks his go in life and off the resumption, he’ll take some beating.

12 Mirra Vision (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) is a beauty for Team Snowden. Unbeaten in three career outings, the latest of which came first up on the Kenso track over 1250m where she looked in a bit of trouble but picked up strongly to wear down a well performed galloper in Avon River. Does no work from the gate and beware the unbeaten horse.

3 Dawn Passage (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) is a huge watch here. The WaterBott stable trains this three year old, who is first up after a three run Spring, which saw him win first up in the Rosebud but was just a tier below Bivouac when it came to the Run To The Rose then the Golden Rose. Think he has trialled well leading in, so I think watch the market.

7 Mugatoo… (Bet Now: $1.85 TOP ODDS) what have we got here. Can he be a WFA horse for the Spring? A Cups horse? Both? Whatever his path is in the future, one thing for sure is that he’s a rising star of Australian racing. Has got better and better with each outing and the manner in which he spanked them in the Canberra Cup was just stunning. He’ll eat up 2400m, wet ground…all points to him.

The x factor/unknown is 1 Young Rascal (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS), a quality stayer from the UK that is tuning up for the Sydney Cup. Go back to 2018, he started third favourite in the UK Derby, so that’s the level he can get to, and does boast form around the likes of Marmelo, Dee Ex Bee and Desert Skyline, all of which are classy stayers. Huge yard/market watch.

9 Supernova (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) has been teasing to be a really good horse and has threatened to be a proper Carnival horse. Want to see him put a race away and this looks perfect. Resumed in the Randwick Stakes two weeks ago off one trial and was good in defeat I thought when fourth to the very progressive Shared Ambition. 2400m, fitter…want to see a very positive run.

I think she’s worth a speck here 7 Gayatri (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS). One soft trial leading into her resumption in the Aspiration and if you were on, you’d be filthy. Just had no luck at all and last 150m was pretty much a barrier trial for her. She will still have relatively fresh legs leading into this and fitter, up to 1900m, think she’ll only run well.

6 Savacool (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) looks to have returned in really good order for Chris Waller. Definite pass mark fresh behind Vegadaze before going to the Aspiration at Randwick and in a fast run race closed off nicely when third to Nettoyer. Getting out to a more ideal trip and third up from a spell, she should just about be at peak fitness.

Bit of a throw at the stumps here in including 13 Mrs Madrid (Bet Now: $101.00 TOP ODDS) for Anthony Cummings. Resumed two weeks ago in what was a fast run Aspiration so want to be forgiving of that effort behind Nettoyer where she was outclassed but far from disgraced. Did win second up over 2000m here last prep and had been trialling well prior to the first up run.

The noise out of Canterbury re 2 Addeybb (Bet Now: $2.50 TOP ODDS) is very positive, and that’s good enough for me. His form is very good and IMO, if he brings that here, he’ll win. What will jump off the page for most is a dominant win over Magic Wand, and we saw what that horse did during the Spring. But also keep in mind that Addeybb ran second to Magical last start, a world class mare. Just reads so well for this.

1 Avilius… (Bet Now: $3.40 TOP ODDS) what to do with him? Thought he was excellent behind Te Akau Shark in the Chipping Norton then backed up a week later in the Australian Cup. Whoever thought it was a good idea to tactically ride him like it was a barrier trial should put their hand up. It was clearly the wrong move and he had no hope. Won this race last year and convinced he’s going as well compared to 12 months ago.

8 Youngstar (Bet Now: $15.00 TOP ODDS) looks back on track for Chris Waller. Blinkers went on in the Randwick Stakes and it sparked improvement with an encouraging second to Shared Ambition. Loomed to win but the class of the satablemate was too much for her. She’s a stayer so getting fitter, she’ll be strong at the end here.

Hard to get away from 2 Te Akau Shark (Bet Now: $1.90), who produced an outstanding win in the Chipping Norton three weeks ago. He had to do the donkey work himself. He didn’t get a drag up into the race and really, it was around an 800m sustained run yet still savaged the line and won. Just has to hold his form to be winning again.

7 Super Seth (Bet Now: $6.00) does look one of the leading chances. Outstanding first up win in the Manfred before taking on the older horses in the Futurity and while to the eye he had every possible when second to Streets Of Avalon, what brought him unstuck I think was no cover. Just got that bit keen outside the leader and that told. Should get good cover here and prove hard to run down.

5 Best Of Days (Bet Now: $26.00) is a quality animal for James Cummings that resumes. He had a busy Spring prep, which ended in WA with placings in both the Railway and Kingston Town. The two trials leading in have been quite good and while he’s not a noted first up performer, 1500m fresh is a good sign he’s forward enough.

I’m going each way in the shape of 3 Warning (Bet Now: $7.00). I thought he was good in defeat two weeks ago in the Randwick Guineas. The race shape just didn’t suit him, a proper stayer, but despite that, he stuck on and the last 75-100m was excellent. He’ll eat up 2000m and for his sake, I hope it’s a proper 2000m contest.

What to do with 1 Castelvecchio? (Bet Now: $6.00) He was very good from the back in the Hobartville, then went to the Randwick Guineas and IMO, just put a line through the run. It was hard to make ground out wide that day and when he took off mid race, he ran a section that was four lengths quicker than any other runner, and that ensured he just whacked away late. Last time he was at 2000m, he ran a mighty second in the Cox Plate.

5 Scorpz (Bet Now: $17.00) is a Stephen Marsh trained colt that comes through the NZ Derby won by Sherwood Forest. Gee his run was outstanding from off the pace, closing off hard to run a close up third. Opie takes the ride from an inside draw and I think that Derby run was a lead I think that he is best ridden cold and being saved for the straight.

The Blue Diamond does look the right form for this race. The trial win turned me off, but the way this race sets up, I’m with 2 Hanseatic (Bet Now: $6.50). On face value, he had every chance to beat Tagaloa, even allowing for the bias, but he does seem to be at his best when sitting back, peeling wide and exploding late, a set up he likely gets this time around.

1 Tagaloa (Bet Now: $5.50) looks to be ticking over beautifully. Outstanding win in the Blue Diamond then was very good from the back in the Todman behind Farnan, a form race which is being tipped as a leading one for the Slipper. He gets a sweet run from the gate, he’s better for that look the Sydney way and should take a power of beating.

I love 14 Hungry Heart (Bet Now: $15.00). I think she’ll be a star 3YO next season and whatever she does as a 2YO is a bonus. Can she win a Golden Slipper? I’m saying yes. The Sweet Embrace win was outstanding and what impressed me was the sustained run she produced in getting the win. Fast run 1200m will be perfect for her, so hopefully the tempo is genuine.

This looks as though it will be a brutally run 1100m so going with the horse that gets the drop on that front pack, which I think will be 4 Savatiano (Bet Now: $6.50). She was softened up big time in the Canterbury Stakes by Begood Toya Mother, which just gave the perfect set up for The Bostonian to take advantage and rightfully he did. Back to 1100m with cover, she’ll take some beating.

5 Deprive (Bet Now: $10.00) in a fast run 1100m and fitter, he’ll be a leading chance here I’m sure. Was keen on him running well first up in the Challenge but in hindsight, he’s just not a 1000m horse at that level but was good late behind Nature Strip. Up in trip looks perfect, fitter and away from WFA should be ideal for this Godolphin sprinter.

9 I Am Excited (Bet Now: $31.00) is the one at big odds I want to include. Comes through the Wenona Girl in what was really a sit/sprint affair, and considering she was back in the run, thought she did a great job to get as close as she did to Fasika. Meets that horse 2.5kg better, gets the dream run off the speed, strong late…why is she $30+ and Fasika is $7/thereabouts?

11 Anjana (Bet Now: $4.80) is the big query. Lindsey Smith trains this mare, who was going well enough according to the stable to resume in the Oakleigh Plate. She had jumped out super prior to that but was just run off her legs so forget she went around. Should be able to get three wide cover from the gate and she’s very good when getting her toe in.

5 Grey Shadow (Bet Now: $12.00) should be suited here off a good speed. This Maher/Eustace mare was specked at various stages when resuming over 1100m at Rosehill a few weeks ago but Greyworm turned it into a real sit/sprint, and this mare isn’t suited by that race shape. Much better placed here and can win.

If this track was like it was last Saturday, you could easily have 7 Bangkok (Bet Now: $12.00) on top. Resumed in the Wenona Girl and in a race shape that didn’t suit her, i thought she was good in defeat behind Fasika. She has an excellent second up record and if she can sit a pair closer in the run, she’ll be dangerous at odds.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 2 Te Akau Shark

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 7 Mugatoo

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 7 Gayatri

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 9

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 12, 14

Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 9

Leg Four: 5, 7, 11, 13, 17

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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