It’s the first Tuesday in Novemeber…It’s Melbourne Cup day. At 3pm Melbourne time, 24 horses will race for glory in the $6 Million Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m) and the entire nation, as well as some parts of the world. It is going to be a super day of racing, with the first race, for the juveniles, to get under away at 10.20am Melbourne time.
Race One: Emirates Airline Plate 1000m
Back Me: Alezan Thunder oozed class on debut and being trained by Kav, she would have had some experience down the straight.
Don’t Back Me: Applegate is beautifully bred and has trialled well, but the wide barrier might a worry.
Big Danger: Big Chill looks a jump and run type who was a good trial winner at Cranbourne. Stable do have a good record with two year olds.
Roughie: Rhandara finished second behind Big Chill in that trial and could surprise from the inside barrier.
Race Two: Tab Sportsbet Handicap 1700m
Back Me: Smoulder was very good in the Seymour Cup against the bias. Should get cover and her NZ form just about gets her home.
Don’t Back Me: Vintedge whacked it away nicely at Rosehill, but she is dropping back in distance which is a concern.
Big Danger: Foxstar had the charmed run and won like a good thing last start. She might go on with it now she has got that win.
Roughie: Tantrum has been excellent in four aussie runs since coming from NZ. Won like a good horse at Terang and can take the next step.
Race Three: Lavazza Long Black (95) 2800m
Back Me: Excluded was slaughtered last start by Yendall in the Terang Cup. Should have won by panels. Hall jumps on and he’ll be looking for redemption.
Don’t Back Me: Western Symbol fought on like a tiger in the Bendigo Cup, but the rise in distance is a worry plus he has been up for a while.
Big Danger: Adroitly had the race run to suit at Randwick but found one better in Galizani. 2800m and the bigger track helps him big time.
Roughie: Crafty Cruiser only knows one way to run and that is just chip away. A must for exotics.
Race Four: Herald Sun Stakes 1400m
Back Me: I know she is first up, but gee Divorces looks well placed here. Two trials for this have been super and hopefully the price is right because she looks a special.
Don’t Back Me: Neriani is ultra consistent, but the barrier might be her undoing as there is plenty of pace on her outside and she may get held up.
Big Danger: Little Surfer Girl had excuses last start. She didn’t handle the track or the surface, she was wide and she had a cardiac abnormality. At her best, she is a threat.
Roughie: Gai’s Choice just looked in need of the run at Geelong behind Inablitz. Fitter and she might be the knockout horse if she gets the right run.
Race Five: Schweppes Tonic 1000 1000m
Back Me: The good thing of the year here in Karuta Queen. Too nippy, too classy, too good.
Don’t Back Me: Spirited Addition is in winning form, but this is a massive leap in class.
Big Danger: African Pulse is a very nice colt, but he is bumping into a superstar. Can fill the placings.
Roughie: The Counterfeiter was caught wide on a fast tempo and tired. If he gets a drag in the run, he is a first four hope.
Race Six: Lexus Hybrid Plate 1400m
Back Me: Hoping the Beadman magic is brought here with Princess Layla. Smart debut winner before bumping into a smart type in Sindarin. Hard to beat.
Don’t Back Me: Combat Kitty returned in good order behind Hot Snitzel but the form doesn’t read well with that horse being beaten on Saturday.
Big Danger: Disputes just could not match it with Atlantic Jewel in the Thousand Guineas. Big drop in class and gets to a bigger track.
Roughie: The Fairy’s Kiss couldn’t stave off Platelet at Caulfield last start. Freshened, gun barrier, a first four hope.
Race Seven: Emirates Melbourne Cup 3200m
Back Me: Can’t go past the effort of Unusual Suspect in the Caulfield Cup. That’s the best guide to this race and he was the pick of the lot for me.
Don’t Back Me: Any of the imports that haven’t had a run in Australia. The only import to have won a Melbourne Cup at it’s Aussie debut was Vintage Crop in 93.
Big Danger: Americain is the defending champ and his win at Moonee Valley suggests he is back to his best.
Roughie: I wouldn’t leave out Shamrocker just because she is at Flemington and her run in the Turnbull was good.
Race Eight: Johnnie Walker Stakes 1800m
Back Me: Going for some value in God Has Spoken. Two runs in Victoria have been good and the distance rise helps.
Don’t Back Me: Red Colossus is a money muncher and Symons has jumped off him. That’s enough for me to sack him.
Big Danger: Lamasery is a classy animal and if he is 100% right, he is the one to beat.
Roughie: Voice Commander will roll along in front and Kathy is back on which is a big help with this horse.
Race Nine: Mss Security Sprint 1200m
Back Me: Perturbo is a such a good straight course galloper who looks beautifully placed in a somewhat weak race compared to what he has raced against.
Don’t Back Me: Facile Tigre is in great form of late, but he might be risk as he is on debut down the straight.
Big Danger: If the real Eagle Falls turns up here, he will go very close to winning. Class will carry him a long way.
Roughie: Parables has a terrible barrier, but she will be hitting the line hard late.
Race Ten: 7News Plate Handicap (89) 1400m
Back Me: Hood is knocking on the door to win a race and the perfect barrier will go a long way towards victory.
Don’t Back Me: Studley Park is a very good horse, but the 1400m against this class might be a tad short.
Big Danger: Under The Eiffel is a classy animal who looks well placed. Barrier is a concern but Jamie Mott will take care of that.
Roughie: Verdasco got a long way back and worked home well against the bias at Seymour. Horror draw but he is racing so well that you can’t ignore him.
Written by Adam Page
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