20/7/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Flemington Cup day

Flemington will conduct a nine event program on Saturday. Weather forecast is for showers, track is soft (6) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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2 Politely Dun (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a nice juvenile on the up and should take beating against these. He ran in the Taj Rossi Final two weeks ago where he got back to near last in the run and worked home with real purpose without threatening behind Jenni’s Meadow. Like him up to 1800m, and the depth here is nowhere near as deep.

3 Red Aces (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very interesting runner. Son of Dundeel for Nick Ryan that debuted over 1300m at Seymour where he got a fair way out of his ground, back near last, but finished off his race quite strongly in a good effort behind Jazzclub. Jumps straight in trip but is bred to appreciate it.

7 Suntora (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing like he will love the rise to 1800m. He comes through the Taj Rossi Final where he just found the 1600m a tad on the sharp side but kept finding the line in a good effort. Like him up in trip, can settle closer and will take beating for sure with good upside.

15 Captain Electric (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is worth a throw at the stumps each way. John Leek Jr trained galloper that was formerly with Busuttin/Young. He debuted with a dominant maiden win over the mile at Moe when just off the speed before being presented clear air and he got better as the race went on. He is one with fresh legs, upside and timing. Each way for me.

2 Le Zebra (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a definite improver for Team Browne. He ran in the Silver Bowl Final, four weeks between runs. He got back and did make up decent ground late in the piece without threatening. He is the one with good upside/improvement and can settle closer in the run. Hard to beat.

6 Enxuto (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will eat up the 1700m here. He comes through the Silver Bowl Final from two weeks back over the mile here where he just got too far back in the run and while he was never a winning threat, he found the line with purpose and was quite good in defeat. If he can settle closer, he’s dangerous.

2 First Settler (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a really good prospect for Price/Kent. He debuted two weeks ago at Caulfield where he got into a sweet spot just off the speed before angling into clear air and he let down with purpose under minimal pressure really to win and win well. If he just runs up to that effort here, he wins again.

3 Landmark (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is hard fit and returned in good order. Kennewell/Yeomans trained youngster that resumed with a win at Bendigo before going to Caulfield when back off the speed and found the line well enough but bumped into First Settler. He runs well for sure here IMO and can settle closer to the front.

5 Scampi (Bet Now:  $SP.00)…what is he? Is he any good or just a 800m/900m squib? His three career runs to date suggest he’s a speedy squib but Ciaron Maher wouldn’t persist if he wasn’t showing something at home and his jumpout work leading in has been more than encouraging, so I think watch the market and see what it does.

2 Cindy Falls (Bet Now:  $SP.00) rates highly. Former Kiwi that won the Leilani Final from a fortnight back where she gave them a start and a beating, launching late from the back to round them up and win impressively. Tricky draw, but is in well after the claim, should get decent cover and launch late.

8 Arqana (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Team Freedman trained mare that comes here with fresh legs, having not raced since June 15 when a strong winner at Sandown when giving them a start and a beating, letting down with purpose Kate to win and win well. Good test here and drawn tricky but she is a mare with fresh legs and talent.

5 Fearless Writer (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate a rise to the mile. He comes through the Leilani Final from two weeks back over 1400m here when doing work to land on speed and that early burn just told on her late, tiring to finish just over a length away from Cindy Falls. She was several weeks between runs there so she has room for improvement and like her up in trip.

14 Diadamo (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for me. Mick Kent trains this three year old, who debuted over 1200m at Ballarat where he had a suck run in transit off the speed before coming wider, clear air, and he got better as the race went on to win quite impressively. Harder here, but I think he’s above average, so keen to see how he goes.

4 Freak Of Nature (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for Jason Warren. 2/2 this time in, the latest coming last Wednesday a5 Sandown when leading throughout and gave nothing else a look in, winning quite impressively and ran decent time. Good test here, but confident he can measure up.

6 Links (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Ciaron Maher trained filly that has been up a little while but is racing pretty well. She comes through the Creswick Final where she was outclassed but far from disgraced in defeat. Up in trip I find interesting but she is hard fit and in the right camp.

9 Legio Ten (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has run well down the straight previously and for mine, looks ready to win. He ran three weeks ago at Caulfield when a fair way back in the run but tracked up and launched late, just missing out on the win when a narrow second to a nice horse, Baraqiel. Back to a track/distance he likes, he’ll take beating I say.

6 Baraqiel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a beauty for Team Corstens. He comes here with fresh legs, three weeks between runs since a win at Caulfield, remaining unbeaten. He found under pressure and although not 100% happy on the wet track, he was too good. Home track advantage, he rates highly.

11 Pioneer River (Bet Now:  $SP.00) tends to save his best for the Flemington straight so returning here, I feel he is dangerous. He resumed behind Baraqiel three weeks back at Caulfield where he just did a bit too much work on speed and felt the pinch late. Given how well he races here, I am not dismissing him.

3 Speycaster (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been up a little while for Chris Waller but hard to knock the way he’s racing. Three weeks between runs since lapping up a truly run 2400m when winning the Stayers Cup at Rosehill, finishing best and was strong late. 2800m should be fine and has upside/progression in terms of his career whereas some of these are ready to retire.

6 Taramansour (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing as if 2800m will be okay. He brings the strong form lines of Berkshire Breeze from the Banjo Patterson a fortnight back. He was never beating the boom Ciaron Maher stayer but he kept finding the line to run second, a well held second, but did comfortably beat the rest. Hard to beat against these.

2 Through Irish Eyes (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is capable of an improved showing. He ran in the Wyclif race from three weeks back at Caulfield where he was never a factor, finishing down the track behind his stablemate. He does have a fab record at Flemington, and this track/distance too. Knockout hope for sure.

7 Wyclif (Bet Now:  $SP.00) had been sneaky flying for Ciaron Maher and that was confirmed with a win three weeks ago at Caulfield where he was absolutely trucking in the run before angling clear and he finished off his race with real purpose to win and win well. He has run well at this track/distance previously and off a win, he has to be given respect.

3 Interpretation (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given another look. He resumed a fortnight back in the Winter Championship Final where he got back to near last in the run and pretty much stayed there, making up minimal headway behind impressive winner Munhamek. Fitter and up in trip, good second up record, he has the class/quality to take this out.

5 Normandy Bridge (Bet Now:  $SP.00) hasn’t set the world on fire this time in but I am convinced his best is more than good enough to be dangerous. He comes through the Cadmus race from June 15 at Sandown where he finished down the track behind Cadmus after being specked in betting. Strong jumps trial win to tick him over, sharpen him up…his best can threaten.

19 Cavallo Rampante (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for me in the get out. Ciaron Maher trained mare that resumed over 1000m at Sandown, getting back off the speed and took a little while to wind into her work but was quite good late in the piece behind Mighty. Better for the run, right down in the weights, she is hard to beat for mine, provided the inside gate isn’t a disadvantage.

1 Beast Mode (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been strong in a couple of runs for Team Hayes. Both runs have come over 1000m at Sandown, proving quite luckless fresh before Shinn got the horse out of trouble on speed last time and he was a dominant winner. Good test here I feel, but confident he measures up.

4 Luna Cat (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is three weeks between runs for Team Hayes since racing against the Mares at Caulfield when off the speed and kept finding the line with purpose in a good effort behind a handy mare in the shape of Kin. She has run well at Flemington previously and she seems to have returned in pretty good order. Hard to beat.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 2 First Settler

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 3 Speycaster

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 14 Diadomo

Quaddie (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 4, 6, 8, 9, 11

Leg Two: 3

Leg Three: 3, 5, 6, 7

Leg Four: 1, 4, 15, 19

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful.

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