20/5/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Belmont

Nine races have been set down for Belmont on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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1 Krysanova (Bet Now:  $SP.00) picks herself. Trevor Andrews trained filly that has had two career starts, both at Ascot. Debuted with a dominant win over 1000m before going to 1100m in the Gimcrack and was good late behind a sharp filly, Live To Tell. Freshened up and her recent trial was a lovely piece of work. She’s the class factor in the race and I’ll back that class to get her home.

4 Sass Machine (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect for Team Casey. She was backed with confidence when debuting two weeks ago at Ascot. Pike took her to the front and for the most part, she looked home, but got the staggers late and was run down by Eliteone. Think she’ll be better for that run under the belt and be stronger at the end, plus Pike sticks.

6 Ayumi (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a knockout chance. She debuted in the Eliteone race mentioned above from two weeks back. She had a suck run behind the speed and was left flat footed when the sprint went on but she ran through the pain barrier and kept finding the line in a pretty solid debut, finishing third. Think she’ll be strong late and a win wouldn’t shock.

2 Arnie’s Boy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been waiting for the Belmont season to get underway and now that it has, I am confident he can take this out. He was very good last season when racing here and does tend to save his best here. He ran over 1400m two weeks ago at Ascot when wide no cover but he kept finding the line and was quite game in defeat behind Civvy Street. Back onto a track he loves and provided he gets a better run in transit this time around, it could be a case of good luck beating him.

1 My Fury (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing like a rise to the mile will suit so I want to give her another chance. I was on her back at Ascot a fortnight back behind Civvy Street and just lacked a turn of foot to be a threat, whacking to the line to finish fifth. Good record at Belmont and up in trip, her best is certainly good enough to be dangerous.

9 Divine Quest (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is struggling to win but is a horse that can be thereabouts with her best. She is on the back up after racing at Belmont on Wednesday where she was off the speed in what was a barrier trial and she just didn’t have the change up speed to go with them late. Think with a more genuine tempo, she can run a cheeky race.

2 Blackwater Bay (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the way I am leaning. I think he has come back in really good order for Adam Durrant. He resumed over 1800m at Ascot and should have won but had no luck in the straight behind Classic Rogue. He then raced behind Fear The Wind two weeks ago and was pretty good in defeat from near the speed to finish third. I think he is a better horse when ridden with a sit and getting last look. If that eventuates, he’ll take holding out.

3 Fear The Wind (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing in super for Team Pearce and commands respect. He has won his past two, both over 2200m at Ascot, the latest coming a fortnight back where Pike gave him a 12/10 and in a driving go, he finished best, just getting the better of Ciscojoe. He is flying at the moment and really, he only has to hold his form to go close once again.

5 Roman Flirt (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is sneaky flying and a win wouldn’t entirely shock with this mare. She ran over 2200m at Ascot two weeks back behind Fear The Wind and given the race shape being against her, I thought she found the line pretty well, beaten three lengths. Has a good record at Belmont and can settle much closer in the run. Definite knockout chance at a likely decent price.

3 Rear Admiral (Bet Now:  $SP.00) picks herself. She’s a very good filly for Team Casey that was a big first up winner at Ascot two weeks ago. The margin was less than a length, but given she was first up and copped heat on speed, she was entitled to knock right up, but class came to the fore and she was too good for them. Fitter and up to 1200m are two big tick and you don’t know how good they are til they’re beaten.

Staying at 1200m is the knock with 8 China Spirit (Bet Now:  $SP.00) but I think he has an engine under the hood. Simon Miller trained gelding that resumed over 1200m at Ascot at the midweeks where the race shape wasn’t really to his liking but was solid to the line late in the piece behind Katona, finishing second. Reckon third up 1400m would be perfect for him but a fast run 1200m here, he’ll be strong late.

7 Upper Limits (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Exosphere that resumes. He did a pretty good job when last in work during the Spring/Summer, placing in the Fairetha before a down the track effort in the WA Guineas. He is a horse who can sprint well fresh and liked the way he went in a recent Lark Hill trial. Likely concedes a start but will be finishing better than most.

9 Pot Shot (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is right down in the weights after the claim and with that in mind, I am in her corner. She has placed her past three, the latest run coming three weeks ago at Ascot over 1000m when wide with cover before presenting wider and she just took forever to wind up, only getting very warm late in the piece when third to Ghost Who Walks. Right down in the weights now, positive ride, I think she’ll take beating.

3 State Of Power (Bet Now:  $SP.00) saves her best for this track/distance and with that, she has to be respected. She ran three weeks ago behind Ghost Who Walks at Ascot. She was on speed throughout and tried her guts out but couldn’t quite finish it off, running a narrow fourth to the Parnham gelding. If she gets on speed without spending too many petrol tickets, she can be quite hard to get past.

1 Vane Tempest (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a quality mare that resumes. She had a busy Spring/Summer prep, which ended with a solid effort in the Fitzpatrick Plate at Albany behind Strathmore Rose. She is a bomb fresh horse that has trialled up really well leading in and she loves Belmont so she has a bit in her corner. I’d watch the market and see what it does.

10 Izzy May (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is worth a throw at the stumps. This mare is on the quick back up after racing at York last Thursday where the market said she had three legs. She got a mile out of her ground and was under pressure a fair way out but picked up and was very good late when fourth. That was at 1200m so I reckon a fast run 1000m is ideal and is a three time winner at the track/distance. She’ll do me each way.

8 Devine Belief (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done little wrong in a four start career and commands respect. Game second fresh down the straight at Pinjarra before going to the midweeks at Ascot where she looked a moral on paper in a moderate race and duly saluted. Rises in grade/depth but she seems a pretty sharp filly and certainly good enough to take this out.

9 Watto’s Fury (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of So Secret that resumes. He is now with Jade Tangaroa after formerly being with Rod Brown and did his racing up North where he was far from disgraced for the most part. With the new stable and I thought a recent Lark Hill trial was more than encouraging. Has won at Belmont previously so I think he is a yard and market watch.

1 No Change (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the straight bat option. He’s been up a little while but is holding his form really well. He attempted to lead throughout over 1400m at Ascot two weeks ago and gave a very good kick but couldn’t quite get there when a narrow second to Vast Art. Back up in trip is a big trip and with a soft trip on speed being on the cards, he’ll take running down.

3 Vitalize (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a break and should just about be at peak fitness. Both runs back from a break have come over 1400m, resuming with a solid third in the Sheila Gwynne behind Stellar Vista before going to the Vast Art race from a fortnight back and was good to the line from off the speed without threatening. Has more upside than most, can settle closer…hard to beat.

Back in trip I do like for 9 Bambun Boy (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Susan Olive trained gelding that ran over 1800m at Ascot two weeks back. She got a fair way out of her ground and was never a threat but was solid to the line in defeat behind Mahaleo, beaten just under three lengths. Saves his best for the mile so returning to the trip here is ideal and if he’s within range, he can finish over the top.

2 Keep Attacking (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is yet to prove himself at 1400m but the way he has returned, I think it will be no issue for him. He resumed in a Qualifier at Pinjarra over 1200m where the market wanted him late and under a confident steer from McGruddy, he was much too good for them. He’s got more upside than most and I think a rise to 1400m should be ideal. Hard to beat.

11 God’s Moment (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been a pretty good mare for Roy Rogers and can definitely measure up here. Her recent runs have come at Albany, the latest coming over 1100m on Sunday where she got off the speed and found the line quite well when second to Gifted Warrior. The rise to 1400m is interesting but good lead that Pike is booked, so watch the market and see what it does.

17 Honey Dew (Bet Now:  $SP.00) finds it hard to win but is an honest mare for Jim Taylor that should be around the mark. She ran two weeks back at Ascot over 1100m when on speed and fighting on pretty well but was no match late in the piece behind an in form Harmika. 1400m is the query with her but with an economical run in transit, she can pinch a first four spot.

Landed with 10 Debonnaire (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Michael Grantham trains this three year old for Bob Peters and the colours do generally fire during the Belmont season, as seen last week. Looked a moral when racing in a Northam maiden a few weeks ago and Pike rode him like that, settling off the speed before peeling wider into clear air and he went through his gears like a nice horse to win and win with something in hand. He’ll measure up here, he maps ideally, Pike sticks…he’s clearly the one to beat.

11 Pandora Girl (Bet Now:  $SP.00) would be a moral in a maiden so not sure why they are running in town in these kind of races. That said, she ran really well at Ascot two weeks ago, closing off strongly from the back when second to Harmika. Racing like a rise to 1400m will be ideal and while I doubt she beats Debonnaire, she is a must for exotics.

7 Savanik (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will be dangerous if she gets a more half positive ride. She ran two weeks back at Ascot over 1400m where she got a fair way out of her ground and was never a threat but was good to the line I thought, close up in defeat behind Vast Art. Would love her stepping up to the mile, but remains at 1400m. Just hope, for her fans, she gets a positive steer.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 3 Rear Admiral

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 10 Debonnaire

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 10 Izzy May

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3, 5, 8, 9, 10

Leg Two: 1, 3, 8, 9

Leg Three: 1, 2, 11, 17

Leg Four: 10

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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