20/4/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Morphettville, HC Nitschke Stakes day

A bumper ten race card has been set down for Morphettville Parks this Saturday for H C Nitschke Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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I think with a 3kg apprentice aboard 2 Lunar Hero (Bet Now:  $SP.00), the tactics will be just jump and run, and that is when he races best. He was ridden far too patiently last time out on March 16 and was never a factor behind Lonrodex. If he jumps clean, he should lead the field up comfortably and take running down.

9 Runaway Belle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has returned in really good order for Phillip Stokes and rates highly for me. This mare ran over 1200m several weeks ago on the course proper here and was a real eye catcher late in the piece the way she closed off when fourth to Delightful Shecky. Think she’ll appreciate a fast run 1000m and be strong at the end.

5 The Magistrate (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an interesting runner. Formerly with Sam Burford, he resumes now under the care of Matty Seyers. He is first up, having not raced since Jan 27 over 1050m on the course proper here where he was near the speed and doing work but loomed large but couldn’t quite get there when a narrow third to Storm Voyager. Trial work leading in has been strong and he can sprint well fresh.

9 Seasons In De Sun (Bet Now:  $SP.00) brings the solid form from Victoria and I think she’s the way to lean. She attempted to lead throughout over 2400m at Sandown on Easter Monday and she gave a decent kick but couldn’t quite see it through when fourth to Samuel Langhorne. Back miles in depth, and I think with a more patient steer, she’ll take holding out.

2 Wolf Prince (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will ensure this is a truly run 2250m. He made it a proper 2500m test last Saturday on the course proper here and he stayed on despite being held late when fourth to Perle Bleue. Has run well at the track/distance previously, hard fit, strong late…appeals.

6 Punchin (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing like a rise in trip will suit. He was 1800m back to the mile at Murray Bridge last time out where he got back off the speed and was a bit one paced in the run to the line but was far from disgraced behind a nice horse, Baby Alex. Unknown at 2250m but has upside/progression I feel compared to the rest.

12 Crimson Vine (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been up a little while but she is racing really well for Matty Seyers. She ran over 2250m here two weeks ago where she seemingly had a dream run in transit on speed and was there to put the race away but couldn’t quite finish it off and was run down late by Disagreeable Miss. Think she only has to hold her form and I think she wins.

7 Trumpsta (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for Ron Stokes. He should have won a fortnight back here but was given none with the ride, sitting wide no cover throughout but despite that, he kept finding the line, just missing out on the win when second to Bond Street Beau. With better luck in transit, he’ll take beating.

9 Badonkidonk (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a beauty for Darryl Dodson. He was a dominant winner over 1900m at Oakbank three weeks back, sitting just off the speed before angling wider to build the revs and he got better as the race went on, proving quite strong to the line in winning. His confidence is up, he can go on with it.

6 Episodic (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the way I am leaning. Clarken/O’Shea trained mare that resumed in an Oakbank maiden where she looked a good thing on paper and despite a few nervous moments, she was always in control and was impressive in the run to the line. Maps to stalk the speed and she will be strong at the end.

13 Trantoro (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and take running down. Pattern was in his corner at Gawler first up but even allowing for that, it was an impressive return, producing sustained speed and giving nothing else a look in to win and win well. Good racing style for this track and better for the run, he appeals.

10 Sir Reginald (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is much better suited at this level. Thrown in the deep end two weeks back in a solid 64 over this track/distance and just found them a bit sharp when down the track behind Delightful Shecky. Back to this level, off prior efforts, he is good enough to take this out.

8 Foxy Femme (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks the one to beat. Team Blanch trained mare that resumed at Murray Bridge where she got back in the run but tracked up with purpose and loomed but being first up, condition just gave way late in the piece when a close up third. Maps to get a sweet run and with luck, he should be strong late. Like her.

10 Pure Bliss (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a nice filly for Clarken/O’Shea. This filly broke her maiden status at Oakbank three weeks ago where she sat on speed and credit to her, she was there to be beaten but she found under pressure to fend them off and was too good. Now she has that win on the board, she can go on with it.

11 Shadowfax (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and take running down. He ran two weeks back in a Port Lincoln maiden where he looked a moral on paper and duly saluted, leading throughout and giving nothing else a look in. Good racing style and right down in the weights, he’ll take running down.

10 Volcanic Express (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a decent engine under the hood for David Jolly. He was an outstanding maiden winner over 900m at Murray Bridge, being tardy away and was held up at times but was able to slice his way through and he charged to the line late for an impressive win. Good test here, but confident he measures up.

9 Skinder (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a talented animal for David Jolly and keen to see how she goes here. She resumed three weeks ago over 1050m at Oakbank where she got back and wide in the run. She did make up solid headway but she was never threatening behind Chosen Blonde. Good effort and I think with a more positive steer, she’ll take holding out.

2 Sunzou (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect. First run for Travis Doudle came a fortnight back at this track/distance when attempting to lead throughout and giving a solid kick but he couldn’t quite see it through and simply had no answers for the finale of Losesomewinmore. Good racing style and with improvement, he appeals as a threat.

1 Wild Willy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a beauty for Jamie Opperman. He ran in the Penola Cup last time out where i thought he was given a 12/10 steer but couldn’t quite see it through behind Prince Jofra. Back to 1550m suits, the depth here isn’t as deep…rates highly for me against this lot, provided there is petrol left in the tank.

5 El Rocko (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is hard to beat. This guy is a few weeks between runs since racing over the mile at Pakenham where he got a fair way out of his ground but found the line with purpose late in the piece in a really good effort behind Rampant Lion. Dangerous for mine if he can settle closer.

13 Missile Star (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a ripping mare for Team Jaensch and commands respect. She won a few weeks back on the course proper, getting a nice drag into the race from off the speed and in a driving go, finished best to win. Back in trip is a slight query but with the right run in transit, she’s dangerous.

1 Overstrike (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has come back in really good order for Chris Bieg. He beat up the older horses two weeks ago, leading throughout and he gave nothing else a look in, winning impressively and was strong in the run to the line. Harder here, but he’s come back in career best form and has to be given respect.

7 Miss Aria (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been solid in two runs this prep for Danny O’Brien. She let down with purpose to win fresh on the Heath track at Caulfield before racing on the course proper there a fortnight back and she chased strongly but found one better in Inhibitions. 1400m no issue, in form, strong late…appeals.

10 Kristobel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is three weeks between runs for Sarah Rutten since racing over this trip at Oakbank. She attempted to lead throughout and tried her guts out but couldn’t quite finish it off, run down late by Apache Gunship. Not sure she has the class/quality to win but for exotics, she can be entertained.

8 Fancify (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a talented mare for Michael Hickmott that resumes. This girl is first up, having not raced since Dec 2 when a strong winner over 1400m on the Parks track, leading throughout and was there to be run down but he found under pressure to fend them off and win. She’s a winner and I thought her trial at Murray Bridge was quite good.

16 Tres Belle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the key threats. Ryan Balfour trained mare that let down with purpose to win several weeks ago over 1250m on the Parks track, producing a strong finale from near last on the turn to win and win well, albeit in a race that was thin on paper. She has found winning form, her confidence is up…commands respect.

1 Hopon Harry (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an Andrew Gluyas trained gelding that is first up. He resumes, with his last run coming on Oct 28 over 1550m here when getting every chance from just off the speed and couldn’t quite finish the race off behind Prince Jofra. Can sprint well fresh and will be strong at the end.

2 Texan Windstorm (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an absolute beauty for John Macmillan. He comes here off the back of a win over this trip on the Parks track, sitting on speed throughout and credit to him, he was there to be beaten but he found under pressure to fend them off and win. Good racing style, which ensures it will give himself every chance.

5 Easy Campese (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has had a couple of runs for Sarah Rutten and appeals for sure. They rode with intent when racing three weeks back at Oakbank where he attempted to lead throughout and gave a strong kick but just couldn’t quite see it through when a narrow third to Second To Nun. I think he’s better when ridden with a sit so if that can eventuate, he’s dangerous.

4 Anjopin (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Team Jaensch trained gelding that is three weeks between runs since racing over 1400m at Eagle Farm where he was just off the speed and kept finding the line in a solid enough effort behind Second To Nun. He has run well at the track/distance previously and rates as a knockout hope.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 12 Crimson Vine

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 1 Overstrike

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 8 Foxy Femme

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 6, 7, 13

Leg Two: 1

Leg Three: 1, 3, 8, 16

Leg Four: 2, 4, 5, 7, 8

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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