The Brisbane Winter Carnival officially gets underway this Saturday at Doomben with several blacktype events featuring across the nine event program. The weather is fine, the track is soft (7) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (11:32) Bernie's Produce Handicap (90) 2200m
2 Mishani Vaidra (Bet Now: $2.35) should be winning. This mare won the Gold Coast Stakes impressively two back before contesting the Toowoomba Cup, where I thought she was a good thing, but for mine, she was just ridden far too negatively and was given no hope of winning when third to The Lord Mayor. Back on a track she thrives at, gets her toe in…she should be beating these.
1 Xebec (Bet Now: $7.00) looks to be going in okay form at the moment for the Chris Waller stable but is running out of chances. They did something different last time out in the Toowoomba Cup when on speed and fighting on well and couldn’t quite finish it off when fourth to The Lord Mayor. I think ridden a touch more quiet, he’ll be much better off and can win.
6 Bargannon (Bet Now: $5.00) is a David Vandyke trained stayer who is just under two weeks between runs since starting a short priced elect over 1800m at the Sunny Coast and despite being challenged halfway down the straight, he found plenty and class got him home. He’s threatened to be a city class horse and with the win under the belt, hopefully he can go on with it.
Race 2. (12:08) Peachester Plate 1200m
Going the way of 11 Winning Shot (Bet Now: $6.50) for the Stuart Kendrick stable. Debuted on a Gold Coast bog over 1200m when leading most of the way and I thought his effort was very good. First start on that kind of surface at 1200m, not easy to do and he was headed by a city performed youngster, but came again and in the end drew clear, so he’s got hard fitness on his side and a hard 1200m no issue.
8 Gem Of Scotland (Bet Now: $3.20) is a Rex Lipp trained filly who is 3/3 to start her career, the latest coming on her home track at Toowoomba a fortnight back when leading all the way. Shared the lead with the well supported Currie first starter Howwonderfullifeis, and that filly did head this girl, but she came again with race fitness and was too good. Off that, I think 1200m will be okay, just, and has the runs on the board.
9 Rock Tour (Bet Now: $27.00) is a daughter of Eurozone who has placed in both career runs. Kristy Best trains this filly, who ran here three weeks ago where she had the suck run behind the speed and loomed to win when presented clear air, but had no answers for the brilliant finale produced by Miss Cavallo. Has the 1200m run under the belt, so should be better off and can win this with luck in running.
Race 3. (12:43) Oscar Oscar Salons Handicap (1MW) 1110m
With a stack of speed engaged here, I’m hoping 7 Cool Drafts (Bet Now: $9.00) can sit midfield, with cover and launch at them late. Ran well two back at the Gold Coast behind Cabeirian before going to Toowoomba where she got a mile back and worked home with real purpose when a close up fourth to Natch. Will be suited by the good speed and can definitely beat these if the breaks go her way.
2 Meet Mr Taylor (Bet Now: $2.80) a definite threat. Talented sprinter for the Kelly Schweida who comes here with fresh legs after a three run prep, where he was outstanding in the first two runs before copping too much pressure in front and for mine was a tad suspect at a hard 1200m when bloused late by Mr Markou. The recent trial was very good and at his best, he’s better than these.
8 Power Command (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Kris Lees trained mare who had trialled up okay in NSW prior to resuming over the 1050m here where she had the suck run behind the speed and once the gaps appeared, she showed a nice turn of foot and got the job done impressively. More depth this time around but does go well second up and stable is having a good run at the moment.
Race 4. (13:18) Big Difference Consulting Handicap (75) 1615m
9 The Candy Man (Bet Now: $4.40) looks a really progressive galloper for the Barry Baldwin stable and he finds a pretty winnable Saturday metro race. Resumed over 1350m here a couple of Wednesdays back where he looked in a bit of trouble early on in the straight but found plenty late when challenged and class got him home. Up to the mile looks ideal and should prove hard to beat at his first go at this level.
15 Borazon (Bet Now: $5.00) is a Chris Waller trained three year old who is heading towards the Derby. Hasn’t raced since March 23 when winning impressively at Eagle Farm over 2200m, showing good fight late when challenged to win. Trialled up okay last week behind Churning and while 1600m is short of his best, he’ll be strong late and is definitely one for exotics.
10 Ponytales (Bet Now: $7.50) is a definite improver I suspect. This Tony Gollan trained mare was wide no cover last time at Toowoomba but stuck on well in defeat when beaten over a length by Ruby Guru. Big tick for her fans here is Brad Stewart back on, because he does seem to ride the mare better than anyone else, and she looks to map really well, likely landing box seat or 1/1.
Race 5. (13:53) Tails Stakes 1615m
With a wet track potentially on the cards, I’m going the way of 8 Order Again (Bet Now: $2.00), who has been excellent in two runs back from a spell for the Brian Smith stable. Just missed first up behind Tumbler before racing over 1500m when given a sweet steer from Larry Cassidy and he proved too good. His wet track form is excellent and the two unplaced runs on wet ground, you can make a case he should have won those races. Really keen to see him back on a track with give.
9 Tangled (Bet Now: $10.00) is a horse I want to keep an eye on provided the track isn’t too wet. He had three runs in the early part of the Autumn, with his first up effort behind Tom Melbourne being an absolute beauty before two below par runs on wet ground, something he hates. Been freshened up and has had two trials to get ready, the latest being last Friday at Warwick Farm when sitting back and finishing off strongly. At his best, definitely a winning chance.
2 Exoteric (Bet Now: $23.00) is a gelding trained by Chris Waller that resumes. This bloke hasn’t raced since the Sydney Summer where he ran well in off season Cup races, with his highlight being the ATC Cup win. Probably heading towards a race like the Grafton Cup, so whatever he does here, he will improve on, but I haven’t minded the way he has trialled leading up to his return.
Race 6. (14:28) Ascot Handicap 1200m
I think the key to this race is how much pressure 7 Mr Marbellouz (Bet Now: $2.30) gets in front, because if he can get a cheap furlong, I think he’s the winner. Has to be forgiven for his last two runs, both failures, where he has done work on speed and faded late. Should lead this field but it will all depend how much pressure he cops. If it doesn’t come, he should be winning given how well he excels on wet ground.
Have to promote 9 Bold Chance (Bet Now: $7.00) given his liking for tracks with give and the fact he’s pretty much the only other early speed runner. Loved the way he toughed it out to win first up at the Sunny Coast. He was there to be beaten by Publishing Power, but class and toughness kicked in late. Gets down on the minimum and was due to run tomorrow at the Sunny Coast but runs here, which looks a good lead.
8 No Annamossity (Bet Now: $13.00) is a son of Mossman resuming for Rob Heathcoate. He had three runs in the Summer and contested some pretty good races, but despite that, I’m not sure he came up at all. Been given a good break and for mine he looked pretty good in a recent trial here behind New Horizons. Can sprint well fresh, so interesting to see what the market does with him.
Race 7. (15:07) Mick Dittman Plate 1110m
He’s sucked me in again…I’m going with 3 Plague Stone (Bet Now: $2.30). The barrier trial star himself has sucked me in again with a couple of outstanding trials under the belt in Sydney, the latest at Rosehill when spanking them and running sharp time relative to the morning. I think the way to ride him is just let him run in front because he hates being restrained. If allowed to run, I think he’ll be too good.
12 Spirit’s Choice (Bet Now: $3.10) is a Matt Kropp trained filly who was well backed when contesting the 3YO Jewel at Eagle Farm last time out where she was on speed and giving her all, looking home for the most part but the last 75m, she just felt the pinch late and Mishani Hustler grabbed her right on the peg. 1200m is an ask, so like her back to the 1110m and is a knockout chance.
8 Vega One (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Tony Gollan trained gelding who has had two runs back from a spell. Ran second to the above average Millard Reaction first up before racing on a bog here when held up before Stewart easing him wider and he just let down like Winx, putting them away with absolute ease, winning by 9, but could have been further. That Millard Reaction form does look red hot and has to be respected.
Race 8. (15:47) Princess Stakes 1600m
Want to give 3 Baccarat Baby (Bet Now: $11.00) another chance. This David Vandyke trained filly has had two runs back from a spell, both against older horses. Resumed with a good third behind Scallopini before stepping up to the mile where she got back and didn’t really come on behind Get Stuck In. Has been freshened up for the Winter Carnival and the trial last week at the Sunny Coast was very good.
7 Belle Roc (Bet Now: $15.00) is a daughter of Rip Van Winklle for the Brian Smith stable who had been bursting to win a race but had to drop back to the Doomben midweeks to get it done, though it wasn’t a pretty watch. Got a mile back in the run nearer the inside and looked in an impossible spot on the turn but picked up late and got the job done. Hard mile looks right up her alley and is back to her own age/sex.
5 Tatcee (Bet Now: $18.00) is a Chris Waller trained filly who is likely on the Oaks path. Hasn’t raced for a few weeks since racing over 2200m at Eagle Farm when second to stablemate Borazon. Been freshened up for an Oaks campaign and I liked the way she closed off behind Prompt Return in a 1000m trial last week at the Gold Coast. She’ll be strong at the end of a decently run mile.
Race 9. (16:27) TAB Handicap (85) 1350m
4 Tawfiq Boy (Bet Now: $5.00) on top. Kris Lees trains this bloke, who contested an open handicap here three weeks ago where he really had no hope the way the race was run, sitting back in an on pace dominated race, but did find the line okay late behind impressive winner Tonsor. The forecast for rain would be music to his ears and does drop a fair bit in depth I think.
13 Prince Of Tie (Bet Now: $5.50) is racing in a real purple patch at the moment for the Kelly Schweida stable, winning his past two at this track/distance, the latest coming three weeks back when getting a soft run on speed and fighting hard late under Lloyd to win. He remains on and with the scratchings, he comes in with the barrier, lands near the front again and doesn’t mind a wet track.
6 Snitch (Bet Now: $13.00) is knocking on the door to win and I think he gets a great chance here. Just found them a bit sharp first up at Eagle Farm before racing at Toowoomba where not much went right for him and did make ground late behind Natch. Think up to 1350m will suit this bloke third up and he strikes a winnable race if he’s going well enough, which I think he is.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Four Number 9 The Candy Man
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 2 Mishani Vaidra
LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 3 Baccarat Baby
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 5, 7, 8, 9
Leg Two: 3, 8, 12
Leg Three: 3, 5, 7, 11, 12
Leg Four: 4, 6, 7, 13
$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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