20/12/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, ATA Stakes day

Good maiden this with several chances. Leaning towards 8 Siberian Siren (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Team Casey trains this daughter of Grunt, who resumed at Belmont when wide no cover on speed throughout and she stuck on well enough in defeat I thought when fourth to Lost City, beaten under two lengths. Maps to get a much better run in transit and off that run, she’s hard to beat here provided it hasn’t gutted her.

11 Rocking Gem (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a tricky gate to overcome but I think she has an engine under the hood. Simon Miller trained filly that is on debut off the back of a trial win at Belmont where she led throughout and despite being pushed out, she responded and was impressive in winning. I think watch the market and see what it does.

9 Hot Nova (Bet Now:  $SP.00) creates interest. Daughter of Safeguard for Team Pearce that debuted at Northam back in August where she was on speed and found little under pressure in a plain debut. She has the potential to be a squib but a good trial and soft gate gives her every chance to pinch this from on speed.

14 Blazing Emerald (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks the best on the program. She did more than enough when resuming at York before having a few weeks off and going to Pinjarra where she got back to near last in the run and while she was never a threat, I loved the way she found the line late in the piece when fifth, beaten a few lengths but ran good late splits. If she can settle closer in the run, good luck beating her.

2 Plainly Spoken (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has had a few chances to break the maiden tag but I don’t think he’s racing too bad. Both runs back have come at Bunbury where each time he has been slow to begin and while he has made up ground, he hasn’t been a winning threat. Can settle much closer in the run if the inside gate is used to advantage and outside Blazing Emerald, gee this race is thin.

6 Royal Law (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Pierro that is on debut. First up at 1500m at start one suggests he will need the run and time, more ground. His latest trial said as much, getting back and wide and made up minor headway albeit ridden out. I think 2000m+ is when we’ll see his best, but respect the stable and the colours, especially in a thin race like this.

4 Snippenova (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the way I am leaning. David Harrison trained mare that comes here off a win, which came over 1000m at Belmont where she produced sustained speed from the front, giving nothing else a look in to win and win well. Good test here against some likely types but she looks a good type herself.

2 Snazzler (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Mahuta for Jason Pateman that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since July 5 at Belmont when giving them a start and a beating in an impressive display over 1400m. Just one trial to get ready and although 1000m is short of his best, if they go silly in front, he can launch over the top.

7 Bisector (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes here with fresh legs for Simon Miller, around a month between runs since placing at Bunbury where she seemingly had every chance but was far from disgraced in defeat behind Stormchaser, who won last Saturday here to frank the form. Tick over trial was good, gets in well after the claim…knockout hope.

Not really a race I want to get involved in but leaning the way of 8 The Rush (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for Justine Erkelens. This mare ran two weeks ago over the mile at Belmont where she got back in the run, with with cover, getting a decent enough drag into the race before coming wider and letting down with purpose but couldn’t quite get the win when second to New Music. Back to 1400m I like and she maps ideally. I think she is the straight bat play.

1 Becalotti (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is generally around the mark for Tiarnna Robertson and I suspect something similar will eventuate here. This gelding attempted to lead throughout over 1400m at Bunbury last time and he gave a pretty solid kick but couldn’t quite see it through when fourth to Fast Flicker. The end of 1400m is the test but if he gets front end control, he’ll take running down.

2 Hesket (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a tricky gate to overcome but he comes here off a win. That win came over 1500m at Pinjarra when outside the speed and going quite comfortably before being clicked up and credit to him, he was there to be beaten but he found under pressure to fend them off and win. Not sure he wins this, but he can run top four provided he gets luck from the draw.

7 Just Adorabelle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has got the maiden win out of the way and I think she can go right on with it. Fenella Martin trained mare that broke the maiden tag last start at Pinjarra over 1200m, sitting near the back before getting a drag into the race, peeling wider and letting down with a brilliant finale to win and win well. She looks a Saturday class horse IMO so confident she can keep winning.

6 Fashion Stakes (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given another look for Neville Parnham. She is several weeks between runs since finishing down the track over 1400m here, where she was found post race to have bled from one nostril, so forgive and forget the run. Quiet tick over trial to keep her up to the mark and off the first up effort, she’s good enough to be dangerous.

8 King’s Parade (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a handy three year old that is just under two weeks between runs since racing over 1000m here where he was outclassed, finishing down the track behind Final Siren. Back up to 1200m and back a fair way in grade/depth, I think he can run a much improved race and a win wouldn’t shock at all.

4 Esprit Garcon (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have come back in beast mode for Tiarnna Robertson. 2/2 this time in and each win has been spectacular, bolting up fresh at Northam before repeating the dose at Pinjarra when giving them a start and a beating, much like the first up win. Tricky gate, but if he gets cover, a drag into the race…he wins again. He’s very promising.

5 Exceltrain (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Team Pearce trained gelding that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since July 29 at Belmont when struggling on the bog surface behind noted swimmer Currimundi. He does seem to race best on the fresh side and his recent trial win was a lovely piece of work so I am keen to see how he goes against these.

2 Without Reg (Bet Now:  $SP.00) resumes for Rhys Radford and his best is good enough to cause problems. His last run was on August 10 at Northam when back in the run and did make up headway but he was never really threatening behind Count The Sessions. Likely spots this field a start but should be strong at the end. Must for exotics.

10 Ihts Closing Inn (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the each way bet for me here. Adam Durrant trained mare that has been, to the eye, disappointing in both runs back from a spell, but the runs have come at 1400m and 1600m. She is a 2000m+ horse so sharply jumping to 2200m I do like, she has the upside and off her deeds as a 3YO, she looks a very promising stayer so up in trip, she’s the each way bet.

7 Diamond Scene (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been up forever it seems like but he is holding his form really well and deserves a crack at a race like this en route to the Perth Cup. He won over 2100m here a few weeks ago, with Pike producing a peach on him from near the speed, lifting late when it mattered to win. Good test here, but confident he measures up.

6 Desennea (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is similar to Diamond Scene. On the up, been in work a while but keeps winning. He won over 1800m a few weeks back, giving them a start and a beating, launching late to finish over the top, beating Demolish, who won his next start to frank the form. Unknown at the trip but is racing like he will be fine.

1 Flash Paddy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has got a win on the board and he can go on with it now. That win came over 2000m at Pinjarra in a maiden when ridden with arrogance by Pike and he duly saluted, making a mess of them in a sharp display. Now he has a win, his confidence is up and he does find a very winnable race.

5 Forlane (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. Latest run was a few weeks ago at Pinjarra over 2000m where he got a fair way out of his ground and made up solid headway without threatening behind My Fair Balentine. He is the one with upside/progression and is dangerous if the inside gate is used to advantage.

6 My Fair Balentine (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a veteran that is hit and miss at times. The hit came two back when a strong winner at Pinjarra. The miss was here last time out when down the track behind Demolish but that was a very strong race vs what she faces here. Couldn’t back her to win but she is a must for exotics.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 14 Blazing Emerald

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 4 Esprit Garcon

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 10 Ihts Closing Inn

Quaddie (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 6, 7, 8, 9

Leg Two: 4

Leg Three: 2, 6, 7, 10, 12

Leg Four: 1

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