2/11/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Randwick

Randwick will play host to Melbourne Cup Day racing in Sydney. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out eleven metres from the 1000m-Winning Post; Out eight metres for the remainder.

Melbourne Cup 🏆: View our FREE TIPS and BEST BETS for the Melbourne Cup

7 Headliner (Bet Now: $2.40 TOP ODDS) for me in the opener. Chris Waller trained filly that comes back to maiden grade after racing in the Reginald Allen at this track/distance where she was far from disgraced behind a quality stablemate, Fangirl. Significant jockey upgrade and drawn soft, she’ll take beating.

Blinkers on I like for 3 Loch Eagle (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS). This colt was smashed in betting on debut at Hawkesbury but seemed to have every chance when second, beaten comfortably, with a big gap to third though. Was down to run at Newcastle on Saturday but was scratched for this, which I find as a positive.

12 Miss Delia (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS) has a tricky draw to overcome but I think she has talent. Les Bridge trains this filly, who resumed over this trip on the Kenso track and despite beating just one runner home, she was beaten just under three lengths. If she gets luck from the draw, she’s a first four threat.

2 Avoidance (Bet Now: $3.30 TOP ODDS) looks one of the better bets on the program. WaterBott trained colt that is on debut and has been given a very solid grounding for start one. Had a prep in the Spring last year before an Autumn prep. Spelled and has had two trials this prep and has looked very good to the eye. He’ll land on speed and I think will be too strong for them late.

10 Arranmore (Bet Now: $3.20 TOP ODDS) is the clear pick of the raced brigade and back to 1100m I like. 1200m has just been a bridge too far for her, but she has been beaten by a couple of quality types i think in the shape of Able Willie and Espiona respectively. Gets run of the race from the draw and is hard to beat.

The one at big odds I can entertain for multiples is 9 Security Advisor (Bet Now: $101.00 TOP ODDS), on debut for John Thompson. He was several lengths behind Avoidance in a Randwick trial, but he was warming to the task late and it was a nice piece of work. He is too big of a price I feel, so chuck him in multiples.

8 Capri Of Tuffy (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) is eligible for easier but she’s racing in solid form for Peter Robl. Bumped into a subsequent winner two back in the shape of Norwegian Bliss. She then went to Hawkesbury last week and had to settle for a narrow second to Cryptogram. Down in the weights, she’s a first four threat.

6 Hoover Lucy (Bet Now: $1.70 TOP ODDS) is the favourite and has to be respected. Made a mess of them to break the maiden tag at Warwick Farm two back. She then went to the Reginald Allen and was far from disgraced in defeat behind Fangirl, and we know what she did in the Carbine Club. That form reads well.

4 The Crimson Idol (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) is the outsider of the small field and how often do we see the outsider win these kind of races. Ran over 1200m at Newcastle last time out when near the speed and battled on pretty well behind a handy one, Cecilia. The small field ensures she’s in with a shout.

I think 6 Roots (Bet Now: $1.90 TOP ODDS) will likely run on Oaks Day at Flemington but if she goes around here, then she’s clearly the one to beat. Impressive debut win at Goulburn before going to the Reginald Allen where she was badly held up at a vital stage and you could make a case to say she goes close to winning with clear air instead of a second to Fangirl. That reads well for this and up to the mile, clearly hard to beat.

4 Gracilistyla (Bet Now: $2.80 TOP ODDS) was scratched from the Carbine Club in preference for this race. He didn’t beat a great deal in his maiden win at Warwick Farm but there was a bit of quality about the way he put them away from the front under J Mac. 1600m should be no issue and is a leading contender.

5 Holstein (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) is going better than what his form would suggest. Outclassed/needed the run fresh behind Home Affairs. He then was okay at Rosehill behind a good one, Snitzonfire in a leader dominated race. Then raced on the Kenso here when wide no cover and fought on bravely behind Snitzonfire. Hard fit, up to the mile, he’s in with a shout.

Happy to speck 3 Van Gogh (Bet Now: $5.50) each way for the WaterBott camp. Attempted to lead throughout at Hawkesbury last time out and gave a solid kick but just couldn’t quite finish it off when second to Seduction Queen. I think 2000m suits and Blinkers first time, think she can lead comfortably and run a bold race.

1 French Bonnet (Bet Now: $3.90) is a query at 2000m, but is bred to get it and should get a cheap run near the speed. Forgive the last start effort here. Wide no cover for the trip and tired late behind dominant winner Ruby Tuesday. Think she’ll either lead or box seat. Whatever the set up here, she can bounce back.

9 The Guru (Bet Now: $10.00) is a proven performer at this track and can run a much improved race at a big price. I was keen on him last start at Kembla but he couldn’t pick his feet up at all on the bog track and failed to fire a shot. Gets firmer footing here and down to 52kg, he’s a definite knockout chance.

Looks to be early speed deluxe here, so looking for someone to take a sit and be strong late, and that criteria fits 5 Moralist (Bet Now: $10.00). Consistent mare for Matty Smith who tried her heart out at Warwick Farm last start but had to settle for a narrow second to Jerle. She’ll sit off the pace and launch at these with Collett steering.

10 Satin Ribbons (Bet Now: $4.20) will be on speed and on the fence holding up you would assume. Led throughout and was much too good for them fresh over 900m at Newcastle. Didn’t beat a great deal, but was impressive with sustained speed coming to the fore. Harder here, but upside and has a good little record.

If they overdo it in front, 2 Damaged (Bet Now: $18.00) is capable. Richard Litt trained gelding that resumes, having not raced since a down the track effort at Kembla behind a well performed galloper in Yangarra Rose. Couple of soft trials to get ready and Bowman steers, so he’s one for multiples.

I can’t believe the price of 1 Eleven Eleven (Bet Now: $14.00). If you knew he was right, he’d just about be favourite here. It was an ordinary Autumn prep, with the gelding failing to put in on several occasions. Was worried after the first trial, but he trialled over 1200m at Randwick and gee he looked in great order. Just have to back him each way.

The speed on in front will be ideal for 3 Southern Lad (Bet Now: $4.20). This guy is first up, having not raced since coming with a well timed run to take out the Ramornie at Grafton, finishing best and nailing a subsequent Stakes winner, Phobetor. Three trials to get ready, the set up here is ideal.

4 Lina’s Hero (Bet Now: $12.00) is another that will appreciate a fast speed. Chris Waller trained gelding that resumes, having not raced since May 29 when a strong winner over 1400m here in what looked a tidy open handicap. Not really a noted fresh performer, but do like horses that go out for a spell on a high. Trialled well, he’ll sit off a good tempo and be strong at the end.

Even race with a host of chances. Going to have a throw at the stumps at odds in the shape of 9 Grand Rock (Bet Now: $12.00). Made his Australian debut over 1400m here. Wide no cover for the trip and just ran out of condition late. Fitter and up to the mile, if he can get a more economical run, he can run a much improved race.

7 Tony Be (Bet Now: $5.00) is a definite market watch. Two runs early in the Spring suggested he just needed the runs and was taking his time to settle into Australian life. Been given a mini freshen up, Blinkers come off and I thought his recent trial was a lovely piece of work, so keen to see how he goes.

1 New King (Bet Now: $26.00) is a knockout hope. Resumed in the 1400m race that Grand Rock contested, which was won by Zoushack. He looked drunk early on in the straight and was going nowhere, but picked up very late and was okay. Like him up to the mile and he is a proven Saturday horse.

1300m is on the short side for 14 Vucetich (Bet Now: $4.40), but he is a good prospect for James Cummings that resumes. He did a good job in the Autumn, winning a couple of races before running a solid seventh at Hawkesbury behind a metro class stayer, Our Bambino. Liked his most recent Hawkesbury trial and can see him launching at these late.

9 Mollycoddle (Bet Now: $4.00) is a James Cummings trained mare that is second up here and should be dangerous. Resumed over 1200m at Warwick Farm and worked home strongly from off the speed when a closing third to stablemate Promotions. Is a second up winner and on firmer footing, can bounce back.

10 Born A King (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Chris Waller trained gelding that makes his Australian debut and I find him a fascinating runner. He had a prep in the Autumn without racing. Back this prep with two trials under the belt, he’ll sit back in the small and launch at these late.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 2 Avoidance

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 6 Roots

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 1 Eleven Eleven

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 4, 5, 10

Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 9, 13

Leg Three: 1, 7, 8, 9, 11

Leg Four: 9, 10, 13, 14

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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