Brisbane racing heads to Doomben this Saturday for a strong program. The weather is fine, the track is soft (7) and the rail is out five metres from the 1600m-1300m; Out seven metres for the remainder.
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Race One (1:23pm) : Brisbane Marriott Hotel Handicap 1640m: Form Guide
Back Me: This could well be a form reference for a Group l in a couple of weeks. Too Good To Refuse (Best Odds: $1.30) is nominated for the Spring Champion and he steps back up to the mile after scoring a dominant win over 1350m last start, sitting off the speed before pouncing in the straight and winning with real authority. He ran well the start prior over this track/distance behind Honesta, who is in Sydney and ready to tackle Group races.
Big Danger: Dream Finnish (Best Odds: $8.00) let down strongly in the mud to win a couple of weeks back over 1200m, coming home hard from near last on the turn, and at Dalby, that is hard to do. Untried at the mile, but take away the top tip and it is a very thin race.
Roughie: Bold Avenue (Best Odds: $11.00) is a three start maiden, but there has been plenty to like about the way he has gone about it, most notably last start over 1400m at the Sunny Coast when storming home from last to run second to One More Kiss, who looks well above average. Lacks the class, but Bold Avenue will be running on strongly late and is a must for exotics.
Race Two (2:00pm) : Novotel Brisbane Airport (Class 6) 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Treatmelikealady (Best Odds: $6.50) had the dream run and beat home subsequent two time winner Didntcostalot first up before again getting the gun run, but was simply no match for Pinch River. She should be at peak fitness now third up from a spell and appears to be a definite winning threat. Only little niggle is her running a strong 1200m.
Big Danger: Returning to Brisbane could spark Lyric (Best Odds: $17.00) back into action, who has been given a month break after running at Randwick over 1000m when finishing behind Fell Swoop, who then came out and won a Stakes race a fortnight later. He loves racing at Doomben, and he does run well when there is a space between runs.
Roughie: Casual Choice (Best Odds: $3.10) has his first run for Tony Gollan after formerly racing with Joe Pride. He last ran at Rosehill when fifth to in form galloper Inz’N’Out, beaten five lengths. At his best, he’d probably take care of these, but first run in a few weeks for a new trainer should be treated with caution in a tricky event to sort out.
Race Three (2:38pm) : Become A BRC Member Handicap (1MW) 2040m: Form Guide
Back Me: I’m going with the horse with upside, which lies with the Matty Dunn trained Blatant (Best Odds: $10.00). The Vinery Stud product won two starts in impressive fashion, though the second win was courtesy of a successful protest. He ran last Saturday at the Gold Coast and worked home very strongly when running second. Up to 2040m is perfect and he has upside.
Big Danger: Elegant Machine (Best Odds: $3.80) is racing in fine form at the moment for the Meagher yard, most notably last time out over 1800m at the Sunny Coast when bolting home by over eight lengths. He looks as though he will 2040m, and Brad Stewart is riding in excellent form at the moment.
Roughie: Cosmonaut (Best Odds: $10.00) is on the quick back up after racing here last Saturday where he wasn’t suited by the slow tempo when running seventh to all the way winner Punta Norte. He is definitely looking for this trip, and this race is considerably weaker than the one he was involved in last weekend, so he can sharply improve here.
Race Four (3:17pm) : Beach Party Raceday 10th October Handicap 1640m: Form Guide
Back Me: I think everyone saw the run of Teronado (Best Odds: $2.20) over 1350m here a couple of weeks back where he just savaged the line late to run third to Steel Zip. He will only be better suited up to the mile and third up…gee he ticks the boxes.
Big Danger: Lauterbrunnen (Best Odds: $4.00) deserves a crack at an Open Handicap after a couple of impressive wins at restricted grade, both coming over this track/distance. Gets on the minimum now, rock hard fit and in form, so this is the ideal time to have a crack at the big boys.
Roughie: One day Bodega Negra (Best Odds: $14.00) will win one of these races, but you’d need a fat wallet to continue backing him, because he has just been an absolute nightmare to follow as a punter. He will get back and charge late. It will all depend on the speed in front.
Race Five (3:57pm) : Canadian Club Melbourne Cup 3rd November Handicap (95) 1350m: Form Guide
Back Me: I was very impressed by the win of Queen Of The Lochs (Best Odds: $7.50) a couple of weeks back on her home track at the Sunny Coast. She poured the pressure on speed yet travelled boldly on the turn and careered away for a dominant win. She is a Stakes performer from the past, so the class is there, and now that she has got the win on the board, she can go right on with it.
Big Danger: Chariot Of Gold (Best Odds: $8.00) comes here in ripping form. He ran over this track/distance three weeks back and led all the way for a dominant win, beating home stablemate Beckham, who franked the form by winning last weekend. Down in the weights again and it’s hard to knock winning form, which has substance.
Roughie: Good to see Amexed (Best Odds: $31.00) back at the races. Go back to the Queensland Derby last year and he was unlucky behind Sonntag, so we know the class is there. He ran three times during the Spring of that year and didn’t really fire a shot. Resumes here with no trials, so he might need the run, but stayers can run a beauty fresh, and this horse is certainly capable.
Race Six (4:37pm): Christmas Parties At The Races Handicap (0MW) 1350m: Form Guide
Back Me: Tricky race to sort out. I’ll lean towards Oceantes (Best Odds: $9.00), who steps up in grade after working home strongly late to finish third behind Kissed By Destiny, who meets that horse 4kg better off, so I think Oceantes is the horse to follow from that form reference, and Jeff Lloyd is riding in fantastic form at the moment.
Big Danger: Sister Emma (Best Odds: $7.50) has been an absolute nightmare to follow as a punter, but she is knocking on the door. She worked home very strongly last time out when fourth to Casino Express, beaten just over a length. Draws much better and Byrne sticks.
Roughie: Dysfunction (Best Odds: $12.00) is the knockout horse. She was just bolting in that Casino Express race and was going to burst through, but got chopped out, clipped heels and fell. The first up was strong prior to that, so I think she can definitely beat these.
Race Seven (5:13pm) : Twilight Raceday 4th December Handicap (0MW) 1350m: Form Guide
Back Me: Yoho (Best Odds: $6.50) tried his heart out last start when given a lovely ride from Sam Payne, but he simply couldn’t fend off Trubia, who had the charmed run behind the tempo. Senior rider goes aboard now, draws well and is fit as well as being in form.
Big Danger: Forgotten Years (Best Odds: $4.60) is a very consistent galloper who is never far away from the action. He worked home well from the back to run a close up fourth to Divine Service. Gate one and D Browne on. That’s a recipe for success.
Roughie: Doughty (Best Odds: $17.00) copped too much pressure in front last start the Gold Coast and had to fold up, which he did when seventh to Red Bowers. Meets that horse 4kg better and draws better. Should get a nice run from the gate and is a must for exotics.
BEST BET: Race Four Number 1 Teronado
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 6 Queen Of The Lochs
VALUE: Race Seven Number 12 Yoho
Quaddie Tips (Races Four Through To Seven):
Leg One: 1
Leg Two: 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 14
Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 12, 13
$50 Investment= 14.88% of the dividend if successful.
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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