The Autumn Carnival in Perth continues at Ascot this Saturday where we see the key lead ups to the Karrakatta Plate, the Gimcrack Stakes and Perth Stakes. The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (16:14) : Tabtouch Handicap (72+) 1600m:
Back Me: 4 Fathnoxious (Bet Now: $2.20) looks the clear horse to beat here. This mare had been out of form for some time but she bounced back to winning form big time last time out where she led all the way at a strong tempo and kicked very hard in the straight when challenged. This race carries no depth, maps well and should take some beating.
Big Danger: 7 Fremond (Bet Now: $10.00) doesn’t have the greatest of winning strike rates but as stated above, this isn’t the strongest race going around so he gets his chance here. He ran over this track/distance last Wednesday where he got back in a slowly run race and did a pretty good job to get as close as he did. Hard to beat if he sits closer in the run.
Long Shot: 3 Saker (Bet Now: $8.50) was unwanted in betting when resuming over 1200m here a fortnight back and to his credit, I thought he ran a pretty good race in defeat behind Shady Grey over a completely unsuitable trip. I still think the mile is short of his best, but he has upside and this race is thin.
Race Two (16:54) : Seacorp Handicap 1600m:
Back Me: 4 Bold Success (Bet Now: $4.20) for me here and with some confidence. He ran over 1400m here last time out where he sat off a very slow tempo and he just couldn’t show the dash required to overhaul Wrinkly. The extra furlong looks perfect, he has upside and is in the right stable. One to beat.
Big Danger: 2 Veuve De Vega (Bet Now: $3.00) is on the seven day back up after racing over this track/distance last Saturday where he attempted to lead all the way and gave a really good kick but just felt the pinch late. Back to his own age here, maps well and should take some beating against this lot.
Long Shot: 8 Jazari (Bet Now: $41.00) also comes through the Wrinkly race here a fortnight back where he just got too far back in the run and the pace was completely against him. That’s the worry here again, but if the genuine tempo came about here, he could prove to be a knockout hope here at a price.
Race Three (17:35) : Mumm Champagne Handicap (1MW) 1000m:
Back Me: 5 Tenterden (Bet Now: $3.50) for me here. He has strung together a few wins on the bounce, the latest coming over 1100m here where he led all the way at a strong tempo and was there to be beaten but he kicked hard. Back to 1000m is perfect for this galloper and he should take some beating.
Big Danger: 11 Radiant Girl (Bet Now: $7.50) is a sparingly raced mare that has shown good promise for the Parnham yard. She hasn’t raced since January 18 over 1200m where she sat off the speed and tried hard but couldn’t quite reel in. The break should do her the world of good and stable is going well.
Long Shot: 9 American Star (Bet Now: $13.00) ran over this track/distance last Wednesday where he was hard in the market and despite not copping pressure on speed, he folded up and was most disappointing. Rises in depth here, but he is talented when right and is a definite contender.
Race Four (18:10) : Perth Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: 1 Keeper Keen (Bet Now: $4.00) looks the one to beat here. Resumed in the Supremacy here a fortnight back where he sat back in the run and closed off well late in the piece but was just no match for star filly Seannie. She isn’t here, extra 100m is ideal and looks to have plenty of upside left.
Big Danger: 2 Riasc (Bet Now: $4.00) ran over this track/distance three weeks back where he was hard in the market and to my eye he did a really good job to finish off and get the win given he did a power of work near the speed and was there to be beaten but he fought hard. That tough run should leave him cherry ripe for this assignment.
Long Shot: 10 Wattos Fury (Bet Now: $21.00) is a So Secret gelding on debut for the Pearce camp. He’d want to be very good to win here on debut, but his trials leading in have been sharp, the latest coming last week at Belmont. Draw makes it tough but I’m keen to see how he measures up here.
Race Five (18:45) : Natasha Stakes 2200m:
Back Me: 5 Royal Star (Bet Now: $2.80) is indeed a star I think and I’m confident she can bounce back into the winners list. She, like most here, come through the Thousand Guineas where she was first up for nearly five weeks and she just lacked match fitness. Ideally suited up in trip and should take some beating.
Big Danger: 3 Very Tempting (Bet Now: $4.00) was another real eye catcher in the Thousand Guineas, sitting back near last in the run and finishing off her race with real purpose to run fifth to stablemate Awaken. Is another that gets a big tick with the distance and is in the right stable. Major threat.
Long Shot: 6 Nice Go (Bet Now: $41.00) rises sharply in trip and grade but I’ll be interested to see how she measures up here. She ran in a 1500m maiden here last Wednesday where she was given a each of a steer near the speed and once she got clear, it was game over. I think she will eat up the trip here and is one for exotics.
Race Six (19:25) : Penfolds Handicap (1MW) 1400m:
Back Me: 6 Galaxy Star (Bet Now: $1.75) is a star and she should bounce back into the winners list. Ran here a fortnight back where she started $1.35 and really, Smith gave the mare no hope and she did a very good job to finish as close as she did. Just needs better luck to take care of this lot.
Big Danger: 3 Pushin’ Shapes (Bet Now: $7.50) has always promised to be a decent horse but he hadn’t really shown much since his two year old season. That all changed when he resumed at Bunbury where he sprouted wings from near last to grab victory in the last couple of strides. He can definitely threaten if he brings his best, but as I said, hard to trust.
Long Shot: 8 Main Instigator (Bet Now: $21.00) rises in depth but is one to include in exotics here. He ran over 1400m at Bunbury last Sunday where he got back off the pace and tried hard, and did make ground, but was never a winning threat. If they go hard in front here, he will get his chance to run on for sure.
Race Seven (20:00) : Gimcrack Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: 2 Seannie (Bet Now: $1.90) is a classy filly for Simon Miller who created a big impression and stamped her Karrakatta claims with a dominant first up win in the Supremacy where she sat off the speed and came with a well timed run to blow them away. Extra 100m looks perfect and is the one to beat.
Big Danger: 3 Very Angry Gal (Bet Now: $3.20) is a stablemate of Seannie that is first up here. Has only had the one race start, which came here on Christmas Eve where she sat off the speed and came with a well timed run to get the victory. Trial leading in was very good, and she looks very progressive.
Long Shot: 11 Resistance (Bet Now: $19.00) is a smart looking filly for Fred Kersley. Debuted here last Wednesday where she was a drifter in the market and despite that, she ran an absolute beauty when a close up third. More depth here, so not sure she can win, but she’s in the right hands and is showing signs of being talented.
Race Eight (20:35) : Get The Tabtouch Handicap (66+) 2200m:
Back Me: 6 Royal Supreme (Bet Now: $7.50) looks ready to tackle the 2200m now after racing over 1800m here a fortnight back where he did a power of work in the run and did a really good effort to finish as close as he did behind Hakuna Matata. Placed in his lone previous 2200m attempt and looks the way to go here.
Big Danger: 9 Proxy (Bet Now: $26.00) is the horse with upside here. Resumed over the mile here a fortnight back where he got back to near last in the run and was never a winning threat, but worked home late behind Material Man, who franked the form at Bunbury. Quickly up to 2200m, but is the one to watch here.
Long Shot: 1 Preselection (Bet Now: $7.50) is a stablemate of Proxy who should be improved by her last start in the Esperance Bay Cup where she was five weeks between runs and just couldn’t get involved. She is a proven city performer at this track/distance and if you can overlook that last start, she’s in this.
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 2 Seannie
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 6 Galaxy Star
VALUE: Race Three Number 5 Tenterden
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 3, 5
Leg Two: 6
Leg Three: 2, 3
Leg Four: 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9
$50 Investment= 208.33% of the dividend if successful
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