The current Gold Slipper favourite is She Will Reign and most are expecting her to tighten her grip at the top of the market this Saturday at Rosehill when she contests the Silver Slipper (1100m) on what is a brilliant card of racing. The weather is overcast, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:45) : Spark Of Life Handicap 1100m:
Back Me: 3 Spending To Win (Best Odds: $3.30) will appreciate the drop in depth after contesting the Eskimo Prince at Randwick a fortnight back where he attempted to lead all the way and gave a really good kick but just couldn’t quite see out the strong 1200m when fourth to Man From Uncle. Much better suited here back to 1100m and is the one to beat in my eyes.
Big Danger: 1 Scarlet Rain (Best Odds: $3.00) resumed against the older horses at this track/distance three weeks ago and did a huge job to win considering she set a strong pace and copped serious pressure around her but she absorbed it, kicked, and on the line, she was comfortably holding them. Back to her own age now, maps well…the only negative is that she may race flat second up off a decent layoff.
Long Shot: 5 Niccobelle (Best Odds: $26.00) was a heavily backed favourite when resuming on his home track at Wyong a tick over two weeks back and for those that launched in, your ticket was gone 600m out because he was off the bit, but once balanced up, he was strong to the line. Better suited on the bigger track track here, and while I doubt he can win, I can certainly entertain him in exotics.
Race Two (13:25) : Happy 80th Birthday Stan King Handicap (88) 1350m:
Back Me: 2 Handfast (Best Odds: $3.20) isn’t the most reliable galloper going around but I am confident he can get the job done here. He will appreciate the significant drop in depth after contesting the Expressway Stakes first up here where he ran last behind Music Magnate. Really good second up record, and to be fair, if he is to contest more Stakes races, he has to put this field away.
Big Danger: 5 Roaring To Win (Best Odds: $4.40) has had two runs back from a break, both coming at Randwick, and both times he has finished behind the low flying Deploy. The latest came over 1400m where he got back in the run and closed off his race wit real purpose despite never being a winning threat. Looks well placed here.
Long Shot: 3 Elle Lou (Best Odds: $4.00) could be the big improver here. This well performed mare hasn’t raced since Magic Millions Day where she contested the mares race and was solid in defeat behind Private Secretary. Looked to trial well last week at Warwick Farm and she did string together some nice wins in these kind of races during the Winter.
Race Three (14:00) : James Ruse Handicap 1500m:
Back Me: 2 Antonio Giuseppe (Best Odds: $2.60) is my early pick for the Sydney Cup but despite that, I think he can start off his prep with a win here. He really progressed through his grades during the Spring, ending up in the Metropolitan where he ran a game second to Sir John Hawkwood. His trials leading in have been very good, especially his trial here behind Nancy. Confident he can win fresh.
Big Danger: 1 Strawberry Boy (Best Odds: $2.90) trialled well here before backing up on the Saturday of that week where he sat outside stablemate Religify and tried hard but just couldn’t reel in that horse, who is absolutely low flying at the moment. Looks to map okay here, and does race best when he dominates from the front. If that can eventuate, he’ll take some beating.
Long Shot: 5 Alegria (Best Odds: $13.00) is a talented staying mare that resumes for John O’Shea and Godolphin. She raced four times last prep, with her best effort being a close up third in the Colin Stephen behind stablemate Allergic. Been given a couple of quiet trials leading in, but she does have tidy first up stats and runs well at Rosehill.
Race Four (14:35) : TAB Highway Handiap (Class 2) 1100m:
Back Me: 2 Aristograts (Best Odds: $6.50) is an above average gelding that could well be a Country Championship contender in the future. He is putting together a tidy record and you just had to be impressed by what he produced at Tamworth last start given he was last at the top of the straight yet he just savaged the line and got up on the line for a remarkable win. Extra 100m here looks ideal and provided backmarkers aren’t disadvantaged, I am quite keen on his prospects.
Big Danger: 5 Zakynthos Regrets (Best Odds: $5.00) is another that could develop into a Country Championships contender. He is a big, big strider with an unusual action, but the key is that he can gallop, and fast. Two for two this time in, the latest coming at Leeton where he put away an average field, but ran time and a lethal closing split. Shocekd if he doesn’t measure up.
Long Shot: 9 Ferniehirst (Best Odds: $26.00) is a sparingly raced mare that is putting together a nice little record at the moment. She ran over 1200m at Port Macquarie last time out where she sat near the speed and toughed it out strongly for a narrow but impressive win. Draws a soft gate and gets the claim for Adkins.
Race Five (15:10) : Silver Slipper Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: The elements of this race just say that 5 She Will Reign (Best Odds: $1.50) wins. She is on top, but I am not as hyped up about her as most are in terms of her being a Golden Slipper contender. Personally, I’m taking her on in that race. But back to this race, and as I said, the scenario just suits her. 1100m Rosehill, early speed, firm track…that, and her outstanding trial win where she ran two second quicker than anything else. I think she’ll win this, but not the Golden Slipper.
Big Danger: 2 Khan (Best Odds: $5.00) makes his long awaited return to the track. This Team Snowden colt for James Harron has only had the one race appearance, which came in the Breeders Plate where he showed an electric turn of foot over the final 200m to overhaul them and sweep straight past them. Two trials leading in have been very good, most notably the Gosford trial. He is the horse who will be very strong late here.
Long Shot: 3 Showtime (Best Odds: $26.00) is a well bred colt that resumed in the Canonbury and on face value, you’d have to say he was disappointing given he had a relatively soft trip outside the tempo and looked to travel well but once it came to crunch time, he folded up. I am convinced he is better than that, so perhaps ridden with cover, he could potentially be more effective.
Race Six (15:45) : Schweppes Hobartville Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: Going to stick fat with 4 Comin’ Through (Best Odds: $4.00). He resumed in the Eskimo Prince and did a very good job to finish as close as he did given the tempo was nothing flash, he was back, and off the bit, seemingly struggling. But he picked up over the final 150m and was strong to the line and through it. He’ll eat up the 1400m here, and with a more genuine tempo, I can see him ambushing these late.
Big Danger: I’m not going to underestimate the win of 5 Man From Uncle (Best Odds: $5.50) in the Eskimo Prince. When you see a $14 runner get the chocolates, you normally are reserved next time out, but there were a couple of good judges tipping him and they were justly rewarded with a brilliant closing finish. Can he do it again? For sure. Problem is you’ll have to take much shorter than $14.
Long Shot: I’m giving 7 Echo Effect (Best Odds: $8.50) enormous respect here. He has been excellent in two runs back from a break, resuming at Randwick when wide/no cover for the trip when a game second to Improvement before racing over this track/distance where he got to the front and ran along at a strong gallop and to his credit he gave a really good kick but was nabbed late by Royal Navy. He is the hard fit runner here, and don’t underestimate him. He’s very good.
Race Seven (16:25) : Ranvet Millie Fox Stakes 1300m:
Back Me: 9 Denmagic (Best Odds: $5.00) is a classy mare that has the run under the belt for David Pfiefer. She resumed over the short course at Randwick where she got back to near last in the run and was off the bit on the turn, but she picked up and was coming late when a narrow second to the Group l performed Denmagic. That was a super return. The problem is that she is a non winner. I think that may change here.
Big Danger: 7 Euro Angel (Best Odds: $5.00) is a quality mare that resumes for Team Hawkes. Performed well really during the Spring, highlighted by a win at Stakes level on Blue Sapphire Day at Caulfield before being ridden a touch upside down in the Myer. Loved her Warwick Farm trial behind Redzel, she handles give in the ground and she appears wound up to run a beauty fresh.
Long Shot: 10 Circular (Best Odds: $17.00) was bolters odds in the Breeders Classic first up but I thought she ran a beauty for a mare who is much better suited at 1600m. I still think 1300m will be short of her best, but you had to like teh way she finished off against the tempo, only beaten 1.5L. With natural improvement from that, I can see her running a beauty here.
Race Eight (17:05) : Parramatta Cup 1900m:
Back Me: Going each way with 7 Sofin (Best Odds: $11.00). She looked a tragedy beaten first up in the Coffs Harbour Cup before going to the Belle Of The Turf at Gosford where it was a dynamite leaders track that afternoon, and for a mare who is a get back type, she really had no hope, but she did very well to get as close as she did. Her two runs at Rosehill during the Spring have turned out to be strong form references, and up to 1900m is ideal here.
Big Danger: Can see really good pace here and 3 Allergic (Best Odds: $3.40) is one horse who will appreciate it. He resumed behind Religify at Randwick where that horse completely dominated things from the front and gave nothing a look. But this horse was quite good late. Got good second up stats and loves racing at Rosehill.
Long Shot: 5 Song And Laughter (Best Odds: $8.50) is a mare who generally saves her best for wet tracks, but she ran an absolute beauty last time out on a firm surface over the Randwick mile when running a game second to the low flying Religify. She has a really record at this distance, and being fourth up now, she should be ready.
Race Nine (17:45) : St Johns Park Bowling Club Handicap (93) 1100m:
Back Me: 9 Alucinari (Best Odds: $4.80) is a talented mare that resumes for John O’Shea and Godolphin. She ran quite well in Stakes grade during the Spring, most notably at Caulfield where she was luckless behind Palazzo Publico. Liked what I have seen from her at the trials, and she does appear forward enough to run a beauty fresh.
Big Danger: 4 Ziggy Willie (Best Odds: $6.00) has been given a freshen up since racing over 1200m at Warwick Farm on January 7 where he sat back in the run and finished off his race with real purpose behind Kudero. Trial at Warwick Farm was solid enough and though he lacks the class/brilliance of some of these, he is a tough bugger who gives his all.
Long Shot: 1 Decision Time (Best Odds: $21.00) is a veteran who is nearer the end of his career than the beginning, but he still is racing quite well, as we saw when winning down the straight at Flemington before failing in the Canterbury Classic. Trialled on Tuesday here and looked pretty good to my eye behind Nikitas. Draws awkwardly but has class on his side.
BEST BET: Race Five Number 5 She Will Reign
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 2 Aristograts
VALUE: Race Eight Number 7 Sofin
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 4, 5, 7
Leg Two: 1, 7, 8, 9, 10, 13
Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 7
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 9
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