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WA Metro racing this Saturday returns to Ascot for Cyril Flower Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

 

[crownbetoffer]

 

Race One (16:04) : Get The Tabtouch Maiden 1000m:

Back Me: 4 True Dragon  (Best Odds: $4.60) on top for me but with no confidence at all in a very thin maiden. Resumes here off the back of a two run opening prep where he failed to fire each time. Trial leading in was okay and the big key is that Pike steers.
Big Danger: 10 Madam Winks (Best Odds: $18.00) resumes for the Harrison camp after debuting at Northam in August where she got off the pace and couldn’t come on. Trialled well prior to that and has trialled well again leading up to her return to racing here. Market could well be the guide.
Long Shot: 9 Just Jude (Best Odds: $17.00) has been given a little freshen up since running in an 1100m Maiden at Bunbury on Australia Day where she got back in the run and closed off her race with real purpose to run a close up fifty. Break between runs is the concern, but has to be included off the first up run.

 

 

Race Two (16:39) : Julian Sullivan Farewell Handicap 1000m:

Back Me: 3 Undisclosed (Best Odds: $2.25) set the straight track at Pinjarra alight first up when she trotted up against the older horses and ran sizzling time. That saw her start odds on at this track/distance three weeks back where she had the charmed run and just didn’t come on. Break between runs should do her the world of good and confident she can bounce back.
Big Danger: 2 Belter (Best Odds: $4.00) drops back to 1000m after racing over 1200m here a fortnight back where he sat on speed and tried hard but didn’t quite see out the distance when finishing fourth go Precious Memories. Back to this distance looks ideal and rates highly.
Long Shot: 1 Atacama Sky (Best Odds: $4.60) is the very interesting runner here. He hasn’t raced since January 14 over 1100m here where he was caught wide throughout and couldn’t come on behind the above average filly Dainty Tess. Goes well fresh and on form, he is the best horse in the race.

 

 

Race Three (17:19) : Mumm Champagne Handicap (1MW) 1200m:

Back Me: 10 Galaxy Star (Best Odds: $1.60) is a really promising mare for Team Williams who is two from two. She resumed a couple of Wednesday’s back over this track/distance where she started odds and didn’t let the punters down with a dominant win. Rises significantly in grade, but she is above average and is in the right stable.
Big Danger: 5 Jingtang (Best Odds: $15.00) looks a leading contender at a price after running over this track/distance a fortnight back where he got a mile back in the run and finished off his race with real purpose to run a close up sixth to Danefin. If he can sit closer in the run here, he will take some beating.
Long Shot: 9 Diamond Tonique  (Best Odds: $31.00) is a handy four year old that resumes here. He doesn’t have the greatest winning strike rate but keep in mind he has contested some handy races throughout his career. Finds a winnable race here and has looked the part in a couple of trials.

 

 

Race Four (18:01) : Autumn Ascot Racing Carnival Handicap (66+) 1000m:

Back Me: 6 Just Act Natural (Best Odds: $4.00) looks one of the better bets on the program. He has been given a 23 day freshen up since racing over 1200m at Bunbury where he led all the way under Glenn Smith and found plenty when challenged late. Form hasn’t quite held up from that race, but back to 1000m for this speed horse is a big tick.
Big Danger: 3 Seeker (Best Odds: $4.00) is on the back up after racing down the straight at Pinjarra last Saturday where he gave the course record a nudge despite racing in inferior ground and on a soft track. You have to respect that here, and despite the wide draw, he has to go in the numbers off that run.
Long Shot: 1 Marchand (Best Odds: $14.00) is a talented gelding that resumes for the Harvey camp. He was pretty consistent during the Winter, winning over this trip at Belmont. Form around him does read well, and despite no trials, he should do no work from the gate and rates highly in my eyes here.

 

 

Race Five (18:35) : Pro Rata Club Membership Handicap (1MW) 1600m:

Back Me: 2 Point (Best Odds: $3.60) for me here. He ran over 1500m here a fortnight back where he got back in the run and closed off strongly without threatening the tearaway leader/winner Baraki Beats. Draws to sit closer in the run and gets the services of Pike. This is his D-Day though because he is becoming costly.
Big Danger: 13 Fontainebleu (Best Odds: $17.00) is a stablemate of Point. Three year old filly taking on the older horses but she does look talented. She ran over this track/distance two weeks back where she got back near last in the run before coming wider and coming with a well timed run to just miss out on the win. Despite the added depth, I think she can measure up.
Long Shot: 3 Prying Tom (Best Odds: $21.00)  resumed in the Baraki Beats race mentioned above where he was kept safe in the market. He was just awful after getting a nice sit back in the run off the pace. Didn’t come on at all, and was a big flop after promising efforts last time in. Got to give him another chance here.

 

 

Race Six (19:15) : Makers Mark Handicap 1600m:

Back Me: 1 Divine Calling (Best Odds: $6.50) is a star galloper that is back down under after a somewhat successful stint in Honkers. He came back to Australia and is now with Fred Kersley. Resumed in the Scenic Blast and came with a brilliant finishing burst to get the job done. He has always been a dominant fresh performer, so can he do it second up? Can’t say with conviction, but he is on top.
Big Danger: 2 Durendal (Best Odds: $4.80) has been racing very well since coming to WA but he just hasn’t quite got the job done to get the win on the board. He comes through the Scenic Blast where he sat off the speed and tried hard, but he was no match late for Divine Calling. Gets the weight pull and can definitely turn the tables.
Long Shot: 3 Dream Lifter (Best Odds: $9.00) is a very good Provincial sprinter who has performed well in town previously. He has to be included off the back of a last start second in the Mungrup Sprint at Mt Barker where he sat off the pace and tried hard when second to Rebel King. Draws a soft gate and will be strong late.

 

 

Race Seven (19:50) : Challenge Stakes 1500m:

Back Me: Will be very interested to see how 12 Glimmer Girl (Best Odds: $5.50) goes here. She ran over 1100m here a couple of Wednesday’s back where she sat off the pace and came with a well timed run to score a dominant win. Up to 1500m is a slight query, but recent trial win looks to have sharpened up.
Big Danger: 11 Amaliemoo (Best Odds: $34.00) is a handy filly for the Durrant/Miller yard who is putting together a nice little record. She ran over 1400m here last Wednesday where she came with a well timed run under Johnston-Porter to score her third career win. Looks suited up to 1500m and stable is going really well.
Long Shot: 5 Gangbuster (Best Odds: $9.00) is a talented three year old gelding that resumed for the Trevor Andrews yard last Wednesday over 1400m here when closing off strongly to just miss out on picking up General Husson. He raced three times during the Winter, winning on debut before running well on a couple of occasions. Trials were very good and the fresh run indicates he is set for a strong prep.

 

 

Race Eight (20:28) : Stone Motherless After The Last Handicap (72+) 1400m:

Back Me: 6 Settlers Creek (Best Odds: $6.50) had been bursting to win a race for some time and he finally got the win on the board over this track/distance three weeks ago where he sat near the speed and showed really good grit to get the job done. Now that he has got the win on the board his confidence is high and he can go right on with it.
Big Danger: 3 Material Man (Best Odds: $7.00) is an above average middle distance type that resumes for the Warwick camp after a very good Autumn/Winter prep. His best form will be over slightly further but gee I have loved what I have seen from him at the trials. Was due to run last week but was scratched due to the wet track and instead runs here. Looks forward enough to my eye to run a beauty.
Long Shot: 4 Woodbine (Best Odds: $34.00) is one of the best bred gallopers in Australia being by Hussonet out Miss Finland, but unfortunately his breeding is the lone highlight next to his name. In saying that, he is first up here and does look ready to run a beauty fresh off the back of a couple of sharp trial wins at Belmont, and he does tend to save his best for early on in a prep.

 

 

BEST BET: Race Six Number 1 Divine Calling

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 3 Undisclosed

VALUE: Race Seven Number 12 Glimmer Girl

 

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 13

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3

Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 5, 11, 12, 13, 14

Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 6, 7

$50 Investment= 8.33% of the dividend if successful

 

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