18/6/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Creswick Stakes day

A strong nine race card has been set down for Flemington on Saturday for Creswick Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (7) and the rail is out twelve metres for the entire circuit.

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Want to be on a horse that will be out of trouble on speed and that horse is 5 Prince Ziggy (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS). Not sure it was a strong race over 2580m at Cranbourne last time, but he made a mess of them from near the front and did lump 60.5kg in winning. He’ll get control in front and give a bold sight.

4 Pesto (Bet Now: $2.80 TOP ODDS) has really appreciated getting out in trip. Last couple of runs have come at this track/distance, winning impressively two back in a moderate race but proved that was no fluke with a solid second to Maserartie Bay. Holds his form and he’ll be around the mark again.

8 Accountability (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) is several weeks between runs for Chris Waller since racing over 2500m at Flemington where he was near a very genuine tempo and actually didn’t do a bad job to stick on like he did in defeat behind Pesto, who ran well two weeks ago. Reckon with a more gentle speed, he can run an improved race.

8 Grand Pope (Bet Now: $2.50 TOP ODDS) gets the nod. Resumed two weeks ago over 1100m here where he was near last in the run and worked to the line with real purpose late in the piece when third to handy amre Diamonds. He’ll sit much closer in the run you would assume, he’s fitter…the one to beat.

6 Little Stevie (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) is three weeks between runs since racing over 1100m at Caulfield where she was close up in defeat and far from disgraced behind Selburose. I reckon 1000m is her go, a fast run 1000m, so she can sit off a good speed and launch at them late. Definite winning chance.

1 Young Liam (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) will jump on the bunny and give a sight. Ran at Caulfield three weeks back in a hot open sprint where he ran hard in front and tired late, but far from disgraced in defeat behind Ashford Street, who won last Saturday, so the form reads well and back in grade/depth, he’s a knockout hope.

8 Anphina (Bet Now: $3.50 TOP ODDS) on top. He’s four weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance and should have just about won. Got held up a crucial stage but worked to the line strongly late when second to Brosnan, who placed in the JJ Atkins, so the form has been well and truly ticked off. He’s the one.

1 Atlantis Tycoon (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS) commands respect. Danny O’Brien trains this juvenile, who was big odds when resuming at Caulfield but despite having a large SP, he was very impressive from the back in winning, clearly clocking the best last 600/400/200 of the race. HE’ll eat up 1400m and is trained here.

3 Nothing Silly (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) is a Kevin Corstens trained gelding that has good ability. He ran third to a smart one in Doull two back down the straight here before racing over 1200m at Caulfield three weeks ago and was good late behind surprise but impressive winner Atlantis Tycoon. He’ll appreciate a rise to 1400m and be strong late.

All points to 7 American Angel (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) for me. Kept quite safe in betting when resuming over 1400m here two wekes ago where she got back and wide, but trucked into the race and loomed big time to win but had to settle for a narrow second to Bella Rouge. Might want the mile, but the return was very encouraging.

Have to give respect to 2 Quintello (Bet Now: $3.20 TOP ODDS). Promising mare for the Maher/Eustace camp that won a couple of races in good style to start the prep before going to Rosehill where she looked all over a winner but couldn’t quite see it out and was nabbed late by Night Of Power. Fresh legs, in form, hard to beat.

9 Grande Rumore (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) was scratched from a weaker race on Wednesday to run here. She ran in the race from two weeks back here and didn’t quite get the rub of the green in the stright, but was still good in defeat when fourth to Bella Rouge. I think she’ll run a positive race again. One for exotics.

I’m just about #1 when it comes to the 8 Passive Aggressive (Bet Now: $2.60) fan club and won’t be dropping off her. Stunning winner two back at Pakenham before racing here two weeks ago where she was there to be run down but she went through her gears like a good horse and once again won with something in hand, and the runner up won at Stakes level last Saturday. Good test here, but I can’t ignore her.

1 Star Patrol (Bet Now: $2.70) looks a very exciting prospect for Clinton McDonald. It’ll be fascinating to see how he goes around a bend because he clearly has a liking for the straight course and while he remains here, at his own age, he clearly rates highly. Took a while to put them away last start but once he did, he drew right away. The one to beat.

6 I Am Me (Bet Now: $12.00) deserves another chance for the Maher/Eustace camp. Ran several weeks ago in the Denise’s Joy at Scone where I thought she had the right run in transit and presented to launch, but just whacked away late in the piece behind Zapateo. I think back to the straight course, she gets another look for me.

I’m with 4 Tavidance (Bet Now: $4.50). Talented animal for the Price/Kent stable that resumes, having not raced since December 18 at this track/distance when very good late behind Second Slip. First up last prep, he had an 800m jumpout and 1190m trial to get ready. This time, he’s had two 1200m jump outs, so I think he’s forward enough and a bit of juice in the track is ideal.

3 Edison (Bet Now: $6.00) is a little query on how well he is going, but he is only third up and should have good upside to come. Needed the run fresh behind Triple Missile before racing behind Looks Like Elvis two weeks back and he actually wasn’t too bad in defeat. His best is good enough, so he’s one for wider multiples.

7 Biometric (Bet Now: $6.50) doesn’t win out of turn, but he maps ideally and the depth here is nowhere near as strong as what he has faced in recent times, the latest run being five weeks back here when third to Triple Missile, who bolted up in the Golden Topaz next start, so the form reads well.

4 The Claimant (Bet Now: $8.00) for me. Connections had eyes on the Queensland Derby for him but after a plain run two back at Caulfield, that plan was aborted. Had a few weeks off before racing at this track/distance where he got back in the run and was good late in the piece without threatening. Fitter, I do think he is capable, but this is just about D-Day.

3 Natural Mystic (Bet Now: $5.50) deserves another chance. Won his opening two career outings before racing at this track/distance where he just did a bit too much work on speed and just felt the pinch late. I reckon with a more patient steer, you’ll see a horse we saw in the opening two runs.

5 Secret Glamour (Bet Now: $8.00) is a key threat. Maher/Eustace trained filly that was far from disgraced in the ATC Oaks. She then came back to 2000m here a few weeks back and tried her guts out but was no match late for the very promising Natural Mystic. Should be around the mark once again.

5 Sir Davy (Bet Now: $4.60) is three weeks between runs for the Maher/Eustace camp since a strong win over this trip at Caulfield where he was given a peach by Ethan Brown, getting the suck run behind the speed, and knuckled down strongly late to win, beating Visinari, a dominant winner last Saturday. Hard to beat despite a rise in grade/depth.

8 Tuvalu… (Bet Now: $6.00) I reckon this is D-Day for him. Lindsey Smith has said repeatedly this horse is the best he has put a saddle on. He hasn’t quite lived up to that IMO but that’s not to say he isn’t talented. He ran three weeks back here and looked the winner but was bloused late by Le Don De Vie. That is the query re form, but not dismissing him…yet.

6 Mystery Shot (Bet Now: $14.00) is knocking on the door to win. Last couple of runs have come at this track/distance, the latest being two weeks ago when a closing fourth to Looks Like Elvis in a really good effort given how far back he was. Like him up to the mile and is hard to beat.

2 Express Pass (Bet Now: $3.80) will launch late if they overdo it in front. He ran in The Discovery on Good Friday at Sale where he bungled the start and that sealed his fate, getting back to near last in a leader dominated affair. Good record at 1000m and should be strong late provided he’s not too far back.

9 Florescent Star (Bet Now: $7.00) looks hard to beat for Team Yargi. Can easily make a case to say she wins the Straight Six here last time out at Stakes level. She had zero luck in the straight and by the time she got clear air, it was race over. Still, only got beat just over a length. She just has to hold that form to go close here.

5 Crestani (Bet Now: $8.00) has to be respected here. Well and truly thrown in the deep end in the Straight Six a few weeks back and nearly caused a massive boilover, looking the winner but was nabbed late by Ocean Beyond. Hard to beat if he runs up to anywhere near that level.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 2 Express Pass

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 8 Passive Aggressive

LONG SHOT: Race One Number 5 Prince Ziggy

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3, 4, 7, 8

Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 10

Leg Three: 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

Leg Four: 2

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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