18/12/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Ted Van Heemst Stakes day

The Ascot Carnival continues this Saturday where it is Ted Van Heemst Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

Ted Van Heemst Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Ted Van Heemst Stakes

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Hard to get away from 1 Revitup (Bet Now: $1.75). Lot of class and authority about her win here two weeks ago, spanking them from the front and running sharp time. Tricky draw on paper, but has the early speed to take care of that. Should lead them up and I think her sustained speed will be too much.

6 Costume Party (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Michael Lane trained filly who has done little wrong in two career outings. Debuted with a strong win in a small field at Belmont. Then went to the Revitup race mentioned above and worked home okay, albeit never really a threat. If she can overcome the draw, she’ll be around the mark.

5 Sunplay (Bet Now: $51.00) is a son of Safeguard on debut for Jason Pateman. He’s had a couple of 950m trials at Lark Hill to get ready for start one, the latest seeing him place. Didn’t mind the way he went about his business and while I doubt he wins here, he can fill a first four spot.

I want to give 5 Big Bada Boom (Bet Now: $5.50) another chance. Not sure what to make of his run five weeks ago here where he didn’t really want to go early and was never a factor, but worked home well late when he switched on. Tick over trial was quite good and I do like the booking of Chris Parnham.

7 Big Screen (Bet Now: $4.50) should be suited back to 1400m. On speed throughout over the mile here last time and gave a solid kick, but couldn’t quite finish it off when second to Proconsent. I think 1400m is a better trip for him and from gate one, he gets run of the race stuff.

2 Lorentinio (Bet Now: $11.00) will put himself on speed and give his all. Be forgiving of his run last time out behind Beret. He was wide no cover and doing work. The burn just told on him late, so want to be forgiving of that effort. If he can find the front here, he’ll run a much improved race.

1 Regal Power (Bet Now: $1.35) picks himself. No prizes for finding him given he is a last start Group l winner, but that is the A1 form. Admittedly he was probably luck to win given how unlucky Western Empire was, but credit where credit is due and he took advantage. 2100m no issue, WFA…all points to him.

3 Platoon (Bet Now: $10.00) looks to be ticking along nicely towards the Perth Cup. He comes through the Kingston Town behind Regal Power. Didn’t quite get the rub of the green in the straight, but that said, he was never really threatening. Small field should help his cause.

2 Neufbosc (Bet Now: $7.00) is similar to stablemate Platoon. I think he is on track to defend his Perth Cup title. His run in the Kingston Town wasn’t too bad I thought. The race shape was clearly against him but he stuck on okay. Gets to a more suitable trip now and can run a much improved race.

10 The Velvet Queen (Bet Now: $2.90) looks a really smart filly. Given the race shape, she really had no right to win here last Wednesday but she sprouted wings late to get up and record a big win, producing the best last 400m of the entire meeting. She’s heading in the right direction and confident she can win again.

9 Safety Fuse (Bet Now: $10.00) has done little wrong in her nine start career for Dan Morton. The two wins have come over 1200m at Belmont and each time she has hit the line with purpose to get the job done. Good test for her here, but confident she can measure up here.

1 Ain’t No Other Man (Bet Now: $15.00) returns to his own age after taking on the older horses two weeks back over 1100m here where he was far from disgraced in defeat behind Written Matter. Think back up to 1200m is a big tick for him and from the soft draw, I think he only runs well.

Back to 1200m I find interesting with 5 Nowhiteflag (Bet Now: $3.70), but he looks a smart animal for Todd Harvey. He is a tricky horse in the sense that he’s a lead or bust horse. Didn’t lead two back and folded late. Last start, he jumped clean, found the front and was dominant. If he jumps and leads, he’ll take a power of beating.

1 All Day Session (Bet Now: $3.20) is three weeks between runs for Ashley Maley since racing at this track/distance when off the speed and chasing strongly when second to Triple Missile. That race rated better than the Winterbottom the same meeting so that has to read well for this.

3 Son Son (Bet Now: $6.50) has done little wrong in his ten start career for Adam Durrant. Ran over 1400m here three weeks back when near the speed throughout and kept on soundly albeit no match late for God Has Chosen. That form will read well in time so he’s hard to beat here.

I want to give 1 Vane Tempest (Bet Now: $14.00) another chance. The ride from Holly Watson was an odd one at this track/distance two weeks ago, not getting much clear air in the straight and should have finished much closer. Senior jock takes over, draws out so should get clear air from the outset and her best is clearly good enough.

9 Miss Vasari (Bet Now: $4.20) is a beauty for Dan Morton. Ran over this track/distance a fortnight back where she had a suck run behind the speed. Just a matter of getting clear and once she got the gap, she showed good change up speed, put them away and was impressive. Confident she measures up.

13 Solid Azza (Bet Now: $23.00) is a David Harrison trained mare that resumes. She hasn’t had a long spell, her last run being October 9 when down the track behind Graceful Girl, who has since gone on to win the Winterbottom. Resumes without a trial, so watch the market with her.

2 Bam’s On Fire (Bet Now: $18.00), I think, is flying and bursting to win one. Her two Jungle runs have pretty much been barrier trials, with the mare getting no luck in the straight on both occasions. Proven at the mile in stronger company than this, if she gets the rub of the green, I think she can win.

4 Angelic Miss (Bet Now: $6.00) keeps stepping up to the plate for Simon Miller. The query leading into the Jungle Dawn was 1400m but a perfect ride from Parnham and her turn of foot came to the fore, blousing Bright Diamond on the peg. If she gets that suck run again, the mile should be fine.

10 Real Charisma (Bet Now: $26.00) can be a big improver from the Jungle Dawn. She was five weeks between runs and back in trip when racing in the Jungle Dawn and just paraded and then raced like she would need the run. Fitter and up in trip, she’s a big improver here.

Good test here for 12 Written Matter (Bet Now: $3.90) but confident he can keep up his winning ways. Three weeks between runs when racing over 1100m here two weeks ago. Wide with cover and took a while to get into his work but really surged hard late to win. Fitter and up to 1200m, like him.

8 Kenyluck (Bet Now: $10.00) is an absolute beauty from Geraldton that should put himself on speed and give his all. He was dominating at Geraldton before going to 1100m here where he looked home but was nabbed on the peg by Written Matter. If he gets luck from the gate, he’ll be around the mark.

4 Resortman (Bet Now: $4.60) is unbeaten second up and I think can be dangerous here. Resumed over this track/distance three weeks back when keen in the run just behind the speed and couldn’t quite finish it off behind Triple Missile. His best is certainly good enough to take this out.

7 He’s A Lucky Lad (Bet Now: $2.15) is a progressive three year old for Adam Durrant that should eat up the trip. Loved the way he found the line to win impressively over the mile last time, justifying the short odds. A win here and I think the stable will tip him out and have eyes on the WA Derby.

6 Poulton Le Sands (Bet Now: $10.00) should appreciate the drop back in grade/depth. Heading towards the Perth Cup you would assume given he has contested the key lead ups, the latest being the JRA Trophy when down the track. Think this run will be a proper guide as to whether press on down that path or not.

10 Frequent Friar (Bet Now: $19.00) has found winning form. The query now being can he go on with it. Aggressive steer from Pateman saw him win impressively at Belmont last time at the midweeks, tiring late but getting the job done. Harder here, but think he can measure up.

6 Lady Duckworth (Bet Now: $10.00) for me in the get out. He comes through the Black Shadow race from two weeks ago over 2200m here. She got a fair way back in the run and worked home with real purpose behind Black Shadow. Has a poor racing pattern but if she can sit closer in the run, she’ll take beating.

3 Conquered Zone (Bet Now: $9.00) should be better suited with a more conservative steer. He ran in the Black Shadow race mentioned above and the ride was just…odd. Ridden aggressively to find the front and rightfully so, he dropped out late and tired. More patient ride, he can bounce back.

8 Talented Escape (Bet Now: $20.00) is a proven metro performer who should be suited back to this level after racing at the provincials his past couple, the latest a third at Albany. He should get a lovely run from the inside gate and does need to improve a touch, but no reason why he can’t.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 7 He’s A Lucky Lad

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 10 The Velvet Queen

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 2 Bam’s On Fire

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 7, 10

Leg Two: 2, 4, 8, 12

Leg Three: 7

Leg Four: 1, 3, 6, 8

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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