18/1/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Kensington Stakes day

Flemington will play host to a nine race meeting on Saturday, headlined by the Kensington Stakes (1000m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.

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8 Chosen Blonde (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) is a very interesting runner. Chris Bieg trains this filly, who is on debut off the back of a December 30 jumpout at Morphettivlle. Loved the way she moved on speed and wasn’t asked for an effort at all in running second. Stable don’t bring them to Melbourne, especially their juveniles, unless they measure up, and off the jumpout, I think she’s talented.

3 Amateurish (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) with the Blinkers going on is a sharp improver. She looked a bit lost down the straight on New Years Day but didn’t mind the way she balanced up late behind A Beautiful Knight. Really like the blinkers going on to sharpen her up and this, overall, is one of the weaker 2YO races so far this season IMO.

5 Parlophone (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) can improve out of sight. Can’t get much worse than what she produced on debut in the race mentioned above. Tailed off last and didn’t get involved at all. Was well backed to win there as well, which is noteworthy, so those in the know thought she had talent, and had trialled like that. Giving her another chance.

4 Great Duchess (Bet Now: $3.70 TOP ODDS) is racing really well without winning this prep but I think that can change here. Freshened up back to 1400m two weeks ago at Caulfield and despite being nearer the inside, which was quicksand for the day, she worked home strongly to run third to Conqueror, who is heading to NZ to tackle the Karaka prizemoney, so I think that form reads well for this.

6 Red Heeler (Bet Now: $2.60 TOP ODDS) up to 1700m I like. Was three weeks between runs when racing over 1400m here last Saturday, getting a good run in transit off a moderate speed, and tried hard, but couldn’t quite there when third to Power Dreams. Like her up in trip, fitter and this is a winnable race if you believe she’ll naturally progress.

5 Ruby Skye (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) is a Craig Widdison trained mare that was well specked at odds when racing here on New Years Day and once she surged between the 250m-100m, she looked the winner, but couldn’t quite get past Heavenly Emperor. Think that form reads well for this and big ticks for her are a good run off the speed and drops to Mares grade.

6 Little Rich Boy (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS) is loving his racing at the moment it seems for John Hickmott. Was 1200m back to 1000m last Saturday at Murray Bridge and despite doing work on speed, he kicked on strongly and was far too good for them, though to be fair, the tempo wasn’t strong. Ran down the straight here during Cup Week and was far from disgraced behind a good one in Garner. That reads well for this.

Big watch on 1 Condo’s Express (Bet Now: $3.90 TOP ODDS), a quality animal for Richard Laming that resumes, having not raced since the Red Anchor on Cox Plate Day when running a game second to Sartorial Splendor. Liked the way he went in a Cranbourne jumpout a couple of weeks ago, and did that without the blinkers. Has class and that will carry him a long way.

3 Sansom (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) is a Phillip Stokes trained three year old that was confidently backed when resuming at Mornington against the older horses and despite making a sustained run, his class was too much for his rivals and was able to win impressively. Gets a good run from the gate, perhaps tracking the speed, and I think can measure up.

All you can do is win and that is what 1 Blossom On Snow (Bet Now: $2.60 TOP ODDS) has done in her career to date, winning 2/2. Latest of the wins came at the midweeks at Caulfield when leading throughout and gee she was impressive the way she put them away late, showing a good turn of good. Good test here, but confident she measures up.

7 Rapid Romance (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS) should be suited up to 2000m on the bigger track. This filly ran over the mile at Moonee Valley three weeks ago where she had the back of the eventual winner Cassius and had her chance to win but stuck on and was good in defeat. She’s had three runs at the mile now and on her home track, up to 2000m, she’s likeable.

2 Rogues Point (Bet Now: $3.10 TOP ODDS) is bred to eat up this kind of trip so keen to see how he goes for Anthony Freedman. Strong maiden winner over 1500m at Cranbourne two back before going to the mile at Sandown last Wednesday when on speed and chasing hard, but sort of wanted to lay in under pressure and potentially cost him the win when second to Ocean Heart. If he does everything right, he runs well for sure.

This looks a perfect race for the Gordon Richards trained 2 Bold Star (Bet Now: $3.40), who is on trial for the Lightning, so he’d want to be running well here to warrant going down the Group l path. He ran in the Standish and was good in defeat behind Halvorsen, but was comfortably held by him. I think 1000m-1100m is his ideal distance, should park off a good speed and be strong late.

3 Time To Reign (Bet Now: $2.60) is a quality colt for Gary Portelli that is first up, having not raced since the Golden Slipper where he ran a game fifth to Kiamichi on a bottomless surface. Has been tuned up for his return with two trials and has looked very sharp each time, telling me he’s ready to go, and stable finds Olly to steer first up.

4 My Pendant (Bet Now: $7.00) is a quality mare for Danny O’Brien that resumes, having not raced since the Blazer Stakes over 1400m here during the Spring when down the track behind Haut Brion Her, who controlled things in front and gave nothing from behind a look in. Recent jumpout was good and does sprint well fresh.

1400m first up tells me that enough work has been put into 8 Fabric (Bet Now: $3.60) to win first up. Quality mare for Danny O’Brien that resumes, having not raced since winning over this trip at Caulfield, beating subsequent Group ll winner Haut Brion Her. Loved the way she found the line in a Werribee jumpout and gets run of the race from gate one with Williams on.

4 Turn The Tide (Bet Now: $5.00) is a Cindy Alderson trained gelding that has raced over the Caulfield 1400m at his past couple. Gave them a spanking to win on Boxing Day before racing there two weeks ago, lumping 60kg and was chasing a good speed a fair way out, which took away his finale behind Conqueror. Prepared to give him another chance.

11 Wentwood (Bet Now: $4.80) is a huge query here. Former Irish galloper making his Australian debut for the Maddie Raymond stable. This gelding will be liked by punters given last year he beat home Constantinople and the fact he looked very sharp in a recent Stawell jumpout win. Market will be the guide as to how forward he is.

Proper nothing race this in terms of quality of horse flesh. Complete throw at the stumps in the shape of 8 Pissaro (Bet Now: $17.00) for Mick Kent. He, like a few here, come through the Bagot and I thought his effort in defeat was more than sound. Was three wide no cover most of the way and really only threw in the towel the last furlong. Like him back to 2500m, and with the claim for an in form Jess Eaton, he meets a few of these nicely off at the weights. Happy to speck him at the big odds.

4 High Bridge (Bet Now: $1.90)…how…just how didn’t he win the Bagot? It was the perfect steer from Dunn and once he got that inside split and hit the front, he looked home, but he turned it right up and was nabbed right on the peg by El Don. Couldn’t back him to save my life after that, but punting hat off, he’s going super and is knocking on the door to win.

6 Red Alto (Bet Now: $31.00) up to 2500m can be an improver at odds. He ran over 2000m here last Saturday where he was back in the run off a good speed so he had his chance to finish off but just whacked away behind Sir Pippin. Two time winner at 2400m, so up in trip should suit him and he can easily turn his form around without surprising.

1200m down the Flemington straight, I’m really keen on 2 Just Hifalutin (Bet Now: $8.00) running well her first up. The Enver Jusufovic stable is flying at the moment and they are placing their horses superbly. This mare is resuming, having not raced since March 16 when fourth to Swift Sis down the straight here. Been given a good break and has had two solid jumpouts in readiness for her return, so I doubt she’s lacking fitness.

This could well be perfect placement by Tony Noonan when it comes to 15 Remastered (Bet Now: $9.00). Did nothing first up at Caulfield before racing down the straight at Flemington and loved the way he found the line to win and beat what I thought was a field which had depth to it. Remains at the scene of the crime and draws the right part of the track.

11 Moor Wanted (Bet Now: $14.00) is suited back up to 1200m and back down the Flemington straight, where he was very good first up. Then went to Caulfield two weeks ago and was close up back to 1100m when fourth to Tony Nicconi. Two time third up winner and his straight six record is quite good, so he can win this without surprising.

Think there is really good value about 19 Pres de Toi (Bet Now: $31.00) in the get out. She was an eye catcher late two back over 1400m at the Bool behind the well performed Flandersrain before stepping up to 1700m there last time and she was brilliant in winning. Her last 600m was two lengths quicker than anything else in the race, so for me, she’ll eat up 1800m here and Regan Bayliss takes over.

4 Skelm (Bet Now: $5.50) is flying for Terry Kelly and despite Johnny Allen not steering, this gelding can make it three on the bounce. Loved the way he attacked the line to win at Caulfield two back, where he was bolting off the speed before being shoved into clear air and finishing best. Will be spotting them a big start but will be strong late.

7 Good Idea (Bet Now: $26.00) will come into his own once he gets to 2000m+, but I thought he did enough first up over the mile at Caulfield when back and closing off okay without really threatening in a bunched finish, won by Exasperate. Should be able to get cover from the wide draw and at his best, he can run a positive race here at odds.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 1 Blossom On Snow

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 2 Bold Star

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 2 Just Hifalutin

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 4, 8, 11

Leg Two: 1, 4, 5, 6, 8

Leg Three: 2, 10, 11, 15

Leg Four: 1, 4, 7, 15, 19

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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