The Summer Carnival at Ascot continues this Saturday with an eight race program, highlighted by the $250,000 Group ll Ted Van Heemst Stakes (2100m), an important lead up to the Perth Cup. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (15:48) : McFarland Plumbing Handicap (1MW) 1600m:
Back Me: 6 Point (Bet Now: $3.20) resumed over 1400m here two weeks back where he did have market support late in the event and that move almost came off but he had to settle for second after getting back in the run. He should only have upside from that and now steps up to the mile, plus Pike steers. Ticks the boxes for me here.
Big Danger: 3 Jaspara (Bet Now: $4.80) won two on the bounce to kick off the prep before racing over 1500m here three weeks back where he loomed to win but just got worried out of it I think when nosed to the peg by Astronomite, who has franked the form by winning last week. Up to the mile suits and he has the race fitness on his side.
Long Shot: 9 See Me Sizzle (Bet Now: $4.80) was desperately unlucky when resuming at Bunbury a tick under three weeks back where he got well back in the run off a hot speed but unfortunately for his supporters, he got badly held up in the straight and you could make a strong case that he should have won. Has upside and is right down in the weights after the claim.
Race Two (16:28) : Tabtouch Perth Cup December 31 Plate 1200m:
Back Me: 1 Dainty Tess (Bet Now: $2.70) is a hard fit filly who would have no idea how to run a bad race. She ran over 1100m here a fortnight back where she sat near the speed and fought on strongly but had to settle for second. Draws the paint here and looks so well in at the weights after the claim for Bowtell.
Big Danger: It’s hard to know how good 10 Miss Lawrance (Bet Now: $6.50) is, but all you can do is win and that is exactly what she has done in both career outings, starting off at Pinjarra before racing at Mount Barker a tick over three weeks ago and was dominant. I’d be watching the market closely and seeing if there is a push.
Long Shot: 3 Veuve De Vega (Bet Now: $11.00) resumed over 1000m here three weeks back where he was a drifter in betting and that proved correct after he sat outside the leader and he just lacked the turn of foot. Better suited here and probably better over further, but he does have a touch of quality about him and a stack of upside.
Race Three (17:08) : LWP Property Group Handicap (66+) 2200m:
Back Me: 3 Mosserati (Bet Now: $3.20) just picks himself here. He was backed as if unbeatable when racing over this track/distance a fortnight back where he was ridden a treat off the speed by Oliver and he came with a well timed run on the horse. He was 1500 to 2100 that day, so he should only improve. If he does, he wins again.
Big Danger: 1 The Forgotten One (Bet Now: $6.00) is the hard fit stayer who comes through that Mosserati race where he had the 1/1 sit and seemingly had every chance but just had no answers to the turn of foot produced by Mosserati. He does meet that horse 2kg better off here and does get the barrier advantage.
Long Shot: 5 Grindabella (Bet Now: $14.00) is a mare in really good form at the provincials for Fred Kersley who rises in grade but has to be respected here. She ran a tick over five weeks back over 2200m at Bunbury where she sat off the speed and came with a beaut finish to nail them late. Rises in depth, but she’s in the right stable.
Race Four (17:44) : Padbury Pharmacy Handicap (72+) 1100m:
Back Me: 7 Furious Dame (Bet Now: $6.30) is an absolute speed demon who should lead these for fun. She ran over 1000m here four weeks back and was enormous in defeat behind Chinetti given she was just absolutely pestered by that horse on speed and in the end, it was only a bob of the head that beat her. Gets the lead here I think and she’ll take some stopping.
Big Danger: 5 Volkhoff (Bet Now: $10.50) was mixing it with Winterbottom contenders before being freshened up and racing here a fortnight back where she got back in the ruck and chased home hard to run a close up third to Delicate Miss. Speed in front of her will be hot so she should get her chance to ambush late.
Long Shot: 9 Roger The Roman (Bet Now: $8.00) is an absolute nightmare to follow but is talented on his day. He comes through that Delicate Miss race where he raced wide no cover for the trip and that just gassed him late where he eventually ran sixth. He is better when ridden cold and finishing off late. If that eventuates, he is in the game.
Race Five (18:22) : Starstruck Classic 1600m:
Back Me: 3 Cosmic Storm (Bet Now: $2.40) was a super first up winner of the Jungle Mist before doing a mountain of work in the Jungle Dawn and quite frankly she did a remarkable job to finish as close as she did. Better when she has something to chase and I think if that eventuates here, she will be winning.
Big Danger: 1 Balmont Girl (Bet Now: $18.00) is the watch horse. She contested three hot races to contest the Carnival, ending in a down the track effort in the Railway. Break between runs and now takes on her own sex. If she brings her best, she is right in the game and has to be respected for sure.
Long Shot: 5 Silverstream (Bet Now: $4.80) won the Jungle Dawn and gee she really bounced back to some form because her efforts prior, though in strong races, were dreadful. Now that she has found form, she could go on with it. But she is very hard to trust and I’ll include her in multiples. But I won’t be backing her.
Race Six (18:57) : Addfuel FFC Fuel Conditioner Handicap (1MW) 1200m:
Back Me: 10 Tommy Who (Bet Now: $2.80) on top for me and with some confidence. He resumed over 1100m here four weeks back and was very good in defeat I thought given he was wide no cover for the trip yet still stuck on really well to finish just behind Roger The Roman. Been given a break since that gutbuster, he draws well, Pike on…ticks the boxes for me.
Big Danger: 6 Red Paddy (Bet Now: $4.60) is a hand galloper for Simon Miller who also resumed over 1100m, this bloke being two week back where he looked a little unlucky. He got back in the run and looked to be going comfortably but he just got held up at a vital stage when appearing to have plenty to offer before eventually getting clear and working home for third. Should have upside and rates highly.
Long Shot: 12 Eyes Wide Open (Bet Now: $31.00) is an interesting runner engaged here. She resumed over 1200m at Bunbury a tick over two weeks ago and sat outside the speed most of the way before eventually taking the lead and then showing good fight to hold off her rivals. Different kettle of fish here, but she has a solid winning strike rate and is proven in town from previous outings.
Race Seven (19:30) : Ted Van Heemst Stakes 2100m:
Back Me: 14 Perfect Reflection (Bet Now: $1.80) at $3 looks an outstanding price. Her efforts this time in have been outstanding, placing in both the Railway and Kingston Town, where she was ridden a treat by Pike on both occasions but just couldn’t sprint. Clearly looking for further, which she gets here, and she is just better than these.
Big Danger: 1 Ihtsahymn (Bet Now: $16.00) was 41 days between runs when racing in the Kingston Town where he got back in the ruck and just stayed there pretty much given the tempo wasn’t really suited to those nearer the tempo. It’s certainly and unusual path towards the Perth Cup, but he has class and is in the right stable.
Long Shot: 11 I’m Feeling Lucky resumed in the Jungle Dawn a fortnight back where she settled a touch worse tan midfield in the run yet presented and finished off with real purpose to just miss out on picking up Silverstream. Looks a leading contender for the Perth Cup and this should be a lovely tune up.
Race Eight (20:10) : Graeme Collopy Handicap (72+) 1400m:
Back Me: 4 Pounamu (Bet Now: $4.60) for me in a really good way to end the card. Tough winner over Universal Law over the mile here two back before racing over the same trip last time out three weeks back and gee, it was a painful watch. As good as Oliver is, he got this ride badly wrong and had the horse in a pocket most of the way when he had plenty to offer. Back to 1400m is a little query, but there looks to be really good speed engaged here and he will be strong late.
Big Danger: 3 Universal Law (Bet Now: $9.00) should be forgiven for his last two starts, both of which he has failed at, but you have to keep in mind that he was back in the run and they walked in front both races. They certainly won’t walk here, so he will get his chance to show his best form and from that meeting with Pounamu, he meets that horse nearly 4kg better off.
Long Shot: 9 Baraki Beats (Bet Now: $11.00) ran over 1200m here last Saturday where he got back in the run, which was totally against his usual racing pattern, but he still finished off his race with real purpose to run a close up second. Up to 1400m should really suit this galloper, he has upside and if he can slot in and get cover, he is a threat for sure.
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 14 Perfect Reflection
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 3 Cosmic Storm
VALUE: Race Eight Number 4 Pounamu
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 5
Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 6, 10, 11, 12
Leg Three: 14
Leg Four: 3, 4, 7, 8, 9
$50 Investment= 35.71% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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