A nine race program has been assembled for Flemington on Saturday. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (11:55) Byerley Hcp 1800m
1 Aktolgali (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) should eat up the 1800m for Rob Hickmott. Comes through the Taj Rossi Final where he was a real eye catcher from the back when fourth to impressive winner Royalzel. That does look a strong form line for this race and he should have no trouble with the extra furlong.
4 Mamool (Bet Now: $3.90 TOP ODDS) looks a nice prospect for Grahame Begg. Debuted over 1300m at Geelong where he was back near last in the run and chasing from a fair way out, but loved the way he close his race off when third to Sunfall. On breeding, 1800m should be fine and he’s a knockout chance for sure in a winnable race.
5 Catskill (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) looks a nice prospect for Grahame Begg. Debuted over 1300m at Geelong where he was back near last in the run and chasing from a fair way out, but loved the way he close his race off when third to Sunfall. On breeding, 1800m should be fine and he’s a knockout chance for sure in a winnable race.
Race 2. (12:30) K.a. Morrison Hcp 1400m
I’m going to give 10 Yulong Justify (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) a chance. I don’t think he has beaten a great deal in two runs to date, both on the Synthetic at Pakenham, but each time he has been impressive in winning, the subsequent form has seen winners and the big tick is the times he has run have been quick relative to the respective meetings. He’s a hard fit, unbeaten horse, and deserves a crack in town.
Punters love a hype horse and one that is first up here is the unbeaten 9 Tuvalu (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) for Lindsey Smith. 2/2 to start his career back in the Summer, bolting up on debut at Warrnambool before repeating the dose at Sandown. That maiden win, the form has been patchy, likewise the subsequent run, so the jury is somewhat out, but he has run time both outings and looked strong in a recent jumpout win. Market will be the guide.
6 Basarwa (Bet Now: $14.00 TOP ODDS) is a former Kiwi that had his first run for Danny O’Brien three weeks ago at Caulfield. He was keen in the run so was allowed to stride near the speed and he fought on pretty well when second to Divine Diosa, who ran well in the Rivette Final a week later, so the form reads well. Just needs to produce better racing manners.
Race 3. (13:05) Rmbl Invest. Rising Stars-bm84 1400m
7 Lindhout (Bet Now: $2.05 TOP ODDS) is a very progressive mare that can win again. Took out the Leilani Final two weeks ago and was quite dominant I thought. Sat back in the run before peeling wider, having full momentum and away she went. She’s got upside whereas most of these have found their mark or are sliding down. She’s on the up and is the one they have to beat. Just her price is the only niggle.
6 Aidensfield (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) is a Team Hayes filly that is racing in solid enough form this time in. Far from disgraced fresh in the Creswick. Then went to the Rivette Final where she seemed to have every chance and whacked away when third to Foxy Frida. Third up, hard fit, this is D-Day for her.
2 Don’ttelltheboss (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) is an honest mare for the Griffiths/De Kock camp that is rarely far away from the thick end of the prize. I thought she was good from the back last time out in the Leilani Final behind Lindhout, closing off well without being a winning threat. Dangerous if she can sit closer in the run.
Race 4. (13:40) Ata Celebrates Women Trainers 2000m
3 Furrion (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) is ready to win. Lindsey Smith has had this guy for a couple of runs and you can tell the horse is getting back to somewhere near his best. Comes through the Winter Championship Final where he got back off the speed and worked to the line strongly when second to Mongolian Marshal. Third up at 2000m looks an ideal recipe.
Great to see 2 Schabau (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) back at the races. Is he on a Cups prep? That was the case this time last year but he let punters down on a number of occasions and I would say the balloon, the hype balloon, was popped. Been given a good break and we know he has class. Interesting to see what the market does.
A rise back up in trip should suit the Busuttin/Young galloper 4 Salsamor (Bet Now: $20.00 TOP ODDS). Was 1800m back to the mile when racing in the Winter Championship Final. Given the race shape, he wasn’t suited, but far from disgraced in defeat. Back up in trip, I think he appeals as a knockout chance.
Race 5. (14:20) L.v. Lachal (bm78) 1200m
13 Lowanna Magic (Bet Now: $5.00) looks hard to beat back to 78 grade. Thrown in the deep end two weeks ago in the Victorian Sprint Final and he ran out of his skin when fourth to in form sprinter The Astrologist. Back to 78 grade, proven down the straight, he’ll take beating.
10 Zorro’s Dream (Bet Now: $5.00) is on the seven day back up for Mitch Freedman after racing at Caulfield last Saturday. It was a horror watch if you were on. Just got a mile out of his ground but picked up hard late, just missing out on the win when second to Gold Spark. Proven straight track performer that is bursting to win again.
12 Wilmot Pass (Bet Now: $7.00) is racing well for the Freedman camp but can’t quite crack it for a win. Ran just over two weeks ago at Sandown when back near last in the run and never really a winning threat, but he did make up good ground in an encouraging effort. Proven at the track and draws wide, so likely finds the best of the track.
Race 6. (15:00) Sir Eugene Gorman Hcp 1600m
1 Django Freeman (Bet Now: $8.00) has class and that will carry him a long way here. Returns as a gelding for Rob Hickmott and even though he has bigger races in mind, he does bring that class factor being a Group l performer and keep in mind, two back he was 2.7L off Verry Elleegant in the Turnbull. Gee that reads well for this.
2 Dice Roll (Bet Now: $3.30) deserves another chance. Was a red hot favourite in the Winter Championship Final but IMO, the ride was poor. Yes, I like he rode a positive race and led, but he went too slow. The horse isn’t a sit/sprint type. He needs to build and he was found asleep at the wheel before it was too late. Bunny to chase, build the revs, he can bounce back.
4 Adelaide Ace (Bet Now: $10.00) can bounce back here. Lindsey Smith trained gelding that toughed it out best to win the Swan Hill Cup two back. He then went to the Winter Championship Final and to the eye, had his chance, but I just think the race shape wasn’t to his liking, the sit/sprint set up. Hopefully the tempo will be more genuine this time around.
Race 7. (15:35) Trevor Clarke (bm84) 1000m
4 Spaceboy (Bet Now: $6.00) is a talented sprinter for Gary Portelli that resumes. Hasn’t raced since March 6 when outclassed but far from disgraced in track record time in the Challenge behind Eduardo and Nature Strip at Randwick. Looked good in a Canterbury trial and is a bomb when produced fresh.
10 Dirty Thoughts (Bet Now: $2.70) is a talented filly for the Ellerton/Zahra camp that resumes. Hasn’t raced since the Scarborough in the Spring when third to subsequent Group l performer Swats That. Has jumped out well leading in and drawn out, she should be in the better ground. Hard to beat.
9 Kalkarni Royale (Bet Now: $11.00) looks a key threat. Kevin Corstens trained mare that ran over 1100m at Caulfield three weeks back when taken back from the wide gate, ridden negatively, and I liked the way she found the line late in the piece. Drawn to get the right run nearer the outside fence and be strong late.
Race 8. (16:15) Flemington Cup 1849 2800m
2400m and beyond is the sweet spot for 4 Sweet Thomas (Bet Now: $6.00), who comes here off the back of a very good win in the two mile Stayers Cup at Rosehill. It turned into a sit/sprint, which played right into his hands given he was the best horse in the race, and he duly saluted. Good test here, but he’s got the runs on the board.
I had to make sure my senses were 100% when I heard 3 South Pacific (Bet Now: $2.15) being talked up as a potential Melbourne Cup contender. He has certainly improved since being gelded, but a Melbourne Cup contender? That aside, his win here here a few weeks back was dominant and from that race, he’s the one from that form line I only want to follow with confidence.
1 The Good Fight (Bet Now: $15.00) should appreciate a rise in trip. Was 2400m back to 2000m three weeks ago at Caulfield in what was pretty much a barrier trial, and he couldn’t sprint, but stayed on and was sound behind the in form No Effort. This sort of trip I like for him and is a key threat.
Race 9. (16:47) Ken Cox Hcp 1700m
7 Always In Moment (Bet Now: $4.00) in the get out. Draws wide, but has Craig Williams steering and should press forward. Market took a set against her fresh at Sandown but it mattered not to her because she was dominant and strong to the line and through it, over 1300m, so stepping up in trip should be fine and has upside for an in form camp.
1 Foxy Frida (Bet Now: $3.10) is a filly that is in ripping form at the moment. Looked to be in a tricky spot two weeks ago in the Rivette Final but the gap appeared at the right time, she drove through and nabbed Divine Diosa near the peg. She’s flying this girl and can continue her winning ways.
15 The Awesome Son (Bet Now: $20.00) is a maiden having start two at Saturday metro level, but I think he does have talent. Would be a genuine $1.50 pop in a 1600m maiden so I find it interesting they elect to run here. The debut at Bendigo was super and the form since has been strong. Is he the one with upside whereas some of these are looking for the paddock?
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 4 Spaceboy
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 7 Lindhout
LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 1 Django Freeman
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 9
Leg Two: 4
Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 5
Leg Four: 1, 4, 7, 11, 15
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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