17/12/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Kensington Stakes day

A strong nine event meeting has been set down for Flemington on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Kensington Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Kensington Stakes

12 River Noire (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a very promising filly for Peter Moody who should take beating here. Jumped out like a bomb prior to debuting at Moe where she landed on speed comfortably and was absolutely trucking in the run under Stackhouse. Just a matter of pushing the button and once she did, she gapped them. Should land on speed comfortably, dash when J Kah asks and be too good.

3 River Ribble (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to be in for a good prep. Team Freedman trained three year old that resumed at Pakenham two weeks ago where he got back in the run but Shinn sliced his way through the field and finished off strongly late behind Red Card, who was impressive from the front. Like him up to 1200m and I reckon with a sit, a drag into the race, he’ll take beating against this lot.

5 The Guava (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is yet to prove himself at 1200m but the return suggests he will be fine at it. Unwanted in betting when resuming at Pakenham but I thought he closed off really well late in the piece without threatening behind Red Card. Stable are starting to find form and provided he’s not too far behind and is within range 400m out, he certainly has the finale to take this out.

3 Throntari (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is capable with her best. Did more than enough fresh at Ballarat when fourth to Direct. She then went to Pakenham and just raced a touch on the flat side behind Blistering. Reckon a truly run 1100m will be right up her alley and provided she’s not too far away from them, she has the finale to launch and beat this lot.

7 Cotel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is 2/2 to start her career and commands respect. Resumed under the lights at Cranbourne where she was tardy to begin but was able to find the box seat and once that happened, it was race over and she was too good for a moderate bunch. 1100m is a query with her, but with Carleen aboard, suspect the tactics will be jump/run and try to run them off their legs.

2 No Way Ever (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Maher/Eustace trained mare that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since July 9 at Caulfield when near the speed and doing work, fighting on strongly when close up in defeat behind Ojosan. Couple of solid jumpouts to get ready for the return and with the claim for Cartwright, she gets in pretty well, so watch the market and see if it tells you if she’s ready.

6 Beltoro (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is bursting to win one this prep and I think he gets a great chance here. He was massive in defeat two weeks ago at Pakenham. Spotted those in front a big start and was never a winning factor but really like the way he finished his race off behind Arran Bay. Tends to run well at Flemington and if he’s within range on the turn, he’s good enough to run them down.

4 Arran Bay (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the hardest to beat. He was a bit on the plain side when resuming at Cranbourne behind Pal D’Oro before bouncing back to his best at Pakenham with a dominant win from near the speed. Very good third up record, track/distance winner and will be strong late whereas some of these will be suspect late. Leading contender.

3 Unanimous (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to win for the Maher/Eustace camp. Close up behind French Emperor on Champions Day at Flemington before going to Ballarat where he came with a well timed run and looked the winner but was nabbed late by Our Redente. Back on top of the ground, he’s a key threat.

Very interesting placement from John O’Shea when it comes to 14 Awesome John (Bet Now:  $SP.00) but he does look a potential Derby horse for the Autumn/Winter. He looked a moral last time out over this trip at Hawkesbury and despite getting badly held up early on in the straight, he got clear air and drove hard, drawing clear late to win nicely. He’ll love getting to Flemington, gets J Kah, maps ideally and looks to have found a thin race.

9 Desperado (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the only threat to Awesome John. Maher/Eustace trained former Kiwi that made his Australian debut on Jericho Cup Day at Warrnambool and gee he was impressive from the back to win and win with something in hand. The gate makes things tricky because he will have to give Awesome John a start, but you do have to respect the stable with these lightly raced improvers.

12 Hasseltoff (Bet Now:  $SP.00) finds it very hard to win but he’s usually thereabouts and suspect that will be the case again. Ran over 1700m at Geelong last time out and worked to the line strongly from off the speed when second to a promising animal, Accuse, who is a stablemate of Desperado and I’d say is a level below that horse, so he needs to improve but Williams does stick.

6 Munhamek (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been up forever it seems like but he’s holding his form really well. Game second to Detonator Jack on Cup Day at Flemington before going to Ballarat where Olly gave him a peach steer and was there to win but couldn’t quite finish it off when a narrow third to Green Fly. Back on firmer footing, he’ll take beating.

1 Zac De Boss (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a straight track specialist who can bounce back. He resumed three weeks back in the Doveton where he was back in the run and chasing from the outset. Never a winning threat, but didn’t mind the way he found the line late in the piece behind Jigsaw. The fact he loves the straight course keeps him in the mix and he does have more upside than most engaged.

5 William Thomas (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks back on track. Jury was out after a plain return in the Apache Cat at Cranbourne but he ran a much improved race at Pakenham two weeks back when near last in the run and was very good late in the piece when third to Umgawa. He is a hard horse to catch but he does have a strong finale on him when right. The last run indicates he might well be around the mark.

3 Nobel Heights (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has upside and is finding positive form. Led and was run down late two back at Cranbourne by Kissinger before bumping into that horse again in the Pakenham Cup and he tried hard but in a staying contest, he was simply no match for the Lindsey Smith stayer. He has petrol left in the tank I feel and I do reckon with a patient steer, a bunny to chase, he can get into the winners list.

1 Persan (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the class runner, by many lengths, and that will carry him a long way. He ran in the Zipping Classic at Caulfield last time where he led and made it a true staying contest, fighting on strongly but was simply no match late for Vow And Declare. If there is petrol left in the tank, he probably wins…but he has been up a while and isn’t the same horse he was 12-18 months ago.

Nick Ryan had Vegas Knight entered, who would have been hard to beat here, but instead he goes with 7 Winifer (Bet Now:  $SP.00), a mare who brings so so form on paper, but her two runs back from a spell have been quite good, the latest at Benalla when back and launching late. If they found a 2400m midweek, she would be an absolute moral. A win wouldn’t shock here, but can easily fill a first four spot.

6 Rose Quartz (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will do me here. Pretty plain here on Derby Day behind Asfoora before going to the Doveton at Caulfield and she surged hard late from the back, just missing out on picking up the very much in form Jigsaw. Loves racing down the straight and with a fast run 1000m, I can see her sitting off that tempo and finish over the top of these. Happy to be in her corner.

2 Esta La Roca (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the 1000m horse in this 1000m race so she commands respect. Hasn’t raced since Cox Plate Day over this trip when near the speed and fought on really well in defeat when a narrow second to Scissor Step. Not sure how she goes down in the straight but seemingly has the right racing pattern to give this a shake.

4 Yulong Command (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and give a sight. He ran in the Doveton three weeks back at Caulfield where he led at a pretty solid clip and tried hard but couldn’t quite sustain it and felt the pinch late when fifth to the very much in form Jigsaw. Last bit will test, but if he doesn’t cop front end pressure, he is good enough to run a bold race at a price.

14 Morrissy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is sneaky flying for Simon Ryan and is in with a chance at a price. He ran last Saturday at Sandown and didn’t do a bad job in defeat from off the speed behind the in form Savannah Cloud. He has raced once on the seven day back up and ran a slashing third on 2020 Magic Millions Day. Reckon with a more positive steer, with upside, a win wouldn’t entirely shock with him, so I will speck at a price.

8 Nicolini Vito (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be respected as a winning chance. He cut back to the inside in the Gold Bullion at Pakenham and he kept chasing in a good effort when second to Pal D’Oro. The end of 1400m is a tad suspect with him but he should be fine with a patient steer and has a good record at Flemington. He’s one of the leading contenders for sure in what is an open race.

2 Morvada (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks hard to beat against these. He was unwanted in betting a few weeks back in the City Of Marion when near the speed and he fought on really well, only beaten by a couple of swoopers in Diamonds and Manhattan Times. That was his first run in several weeks, so there should be good room for improvement, he loves the 1400m and gets J Kah.

12 Victory Bay (Bet Now:  $SP.00) gets a proper rider on now since the first up win and that is enough to have me in his corner for the get out. He ran over this trip on Traralgon Cup Day where a 4kg apprentice was aboard and no disrespect to her, but this horse looks like one that needs a senior rider aboard and that cost him the win last time. Should lob into a lovely spot and be strong at the end.

17 Micro (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has good form around him to give this a shake. He resumed on the Kenso track and to the eye, it was just a run when second to Gundy Bridge, but that horse sizzled on speed and given the track pattern, the run of Micro was very good. Fitter and up to 1400m, he has more upside than most and this stable is flying, so he commands respect for sure.

9 Naboo Star (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is getting on in years but he looks to have jumped out well enough to command respect here fresh for Team Hayes. His last run came on Caulfield Cup Day when third to Saint Bathans, with second being Cap De Joie. That form is A1 for what is a moderate Benchmark 70 and his recent jumpout here was pretty good. Think he’s worth including in a winnable race.

BEST BET: Race One Number 12 River Noire

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 14 Awesome John

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 14 Morrissy

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3

Leg Two: 2, 4, 5, 6

Leg Three: 1, 2, 8, 9, 14

Leg Four: 9, 12, 13, 17

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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