16/7/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Flemington Cup day

Flemington will play host to a nine race card on Saturday. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (7) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.

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Peter Moody looks to have a sharp one here in the shape of 12 Tapin’ Three (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS), a daughter of Zoustar. June 22 saw a set of jumpouts at Pakenham on the Synthetic and she was one of the standouts of the morning. Fast time, cruised behind them before peeling, clicked up and her change up speed was impressive. Happy to be in her corner.

3 Lascars (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) is an interesting runner. Returns to racing as a gelding for James Cummings, having not raced since the Autumn when second at Ballarat. Been gelded and his two trials in Sydney have been sharp. Off his overall form, he has to rate highly in a race like this.

8 Fly Nice (Bet Now: $20.00 TOP ODDS) will be up near the front and trying hard. Somewhat unwanted in betting when racing at Moe last time but she gave them a spanking from on speed and was much too good. She has always shown promise since day one. Now she has a win on the board, can she go on with it?

5 Thalassophile (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS) is racing like she will eat up 1700m for Chris Waller. Thrown somewhat in the deep end in the Silver Bowl Final two weeks back and I thoughts he was very good from the back behind impressive winner Arran Bay. That form reads very well and hopefully can settle closer in the run.

10 Oceana Blue (Bet Now: $3.10 TOP ODDS) is a nice horse for Peter Moody. He ran over 2000m at Flemington several weeks back where I am not sure he was entirely happy on the wet track but he stuck on and was good in defeat behind Texas Tea. Hopefully firmer footing for him and if he can settle closer in the run, he’ll take beating.

2 Hearts And Minds (Bet Now: $16.00 TOP ODDS) is a Patrick Payne trained three year old that resumed on testing ground at Geelong and I liked the ticker he showed on speed, fending them off late and was an impressive winner. The query is 1700m, but stable is flying and has good upside to come.

1 Zousonic (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) has an awful racing pattern, but she is knocking on the door to win. Ran two weeks ago in the Leilani Final and in a sit/sprint, for a backmarker, she had no chance, and produced the best late splits behind Megamea. Has won at the mile and I think has a class edge.

6 Rusutsu (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) is a working progress for Peter Moody and I don’t think she is far off a win. She ran over this trip against the boys at Sandown last start and she was solid from off the speed behind Rainbow Thief, finishing fourth. Working up to a win…wouldn’t shock if it came here.

Fitter and up to the mile are two big ticks for 7 Spirit Of Gold (Bet Now: $16.00 TOP ODDS). Peter Moody trained mare that resumed in the Leilani Final, a hard enough task as it is for a staying mare, but considering the tempo wasn’t hot, she was no chance, so forgive the down the track effort. Fitter, up to the mile, I am expecting improvement.

3 Through Irish Eyes (Bet Now: $2.60 TOP ODDS) is a real stayer that brings the strong form lines. Ran in the Brisbane Cup several weeks ago at Eagle Farm and looked all over a winner but was nabbed late by Irish Sequel. He doesn’t want this to be a sit/sprint given his lack of change up speed. If this becomes survival of the fittest, he’s the one.

If the run from two weeks ago hasn’t busted him, I think 6 Horrifying (Bet Now: $3.20 TOP ODDS) can take this out. He was massive at this track last time, sitting three/four wide for the first part of the race before finding the front. He was a sitting shot for a fair way and was only run down late in a game effort. More economical run this time around, he’ll take beating.

2 Sweet Thomas (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS) is in with a shout at odds. He found the track too wet in the Sunny Coast Cup last time out but did make up ground withouyt threatening. Back on a firmer deck and up to a more suitable trip, I am expecting improvement from this veteran stayer.

4 Verifier (Bet Now: $5.00) looks a horse with good ability and he’ll love getting to 1800m. Debuted over 1400m here several weeks ago where he flopped out to last in the run and was never a factor, but once he switched on, his last 100m was very good, screaming of a horse wanting more ground, which he gets, and if he can settle closer in the run, he’ll take beating.

There are enough negatives to say 1 Quang Tri (Bet Now: $2.15) is too short, but on pure form, she is the one they have to beat. Wide no cover in the Taj Rossi Final but she was still much too good for them. The negatives IMO are that she now rises in weight, she’s drawn wide again, 1800m a query and the horse she beat last time, King’s Consort, doesn’t have a big heart I think. Hard to beat on form as a whole, but could I entertain even money? Definitely not.

13 Winning Bid (Bet Now: $19.00) is an improver at odds. She ran in the Taj Rossi Final and didn’t exactly fire a shot, but noteworthy that she gets L Meech aboard and from gate one, with Blinkers on, I suspect they’ll sit more forward, and off her debut run, she’s in with a shout at a price.

9 Squid Game (Bet Now: $2.25) has a horrendous racing pattern but the engine under the hood is a good one. Not given much horse with the ride at Caulfield three weeks back, and his pattern, but even allowing for that, he wasn’t going to pick up Inundation. If he can settle closer and get clear air, he’ll be dangerous.

8 Miss Dior (Bet Now: $8.50) deserves another chance. She resumed a few weeks back at Randwick where she led at a solid gallop, copping pressure and just feeling the pinch late behind Hulk. Only had one soft trial leading in, so you’d think there is improvement to come and won’t mind a rain affected track.

13 Agrimony (Bet Now: $11.00) has fresh legs and I think is dangerous. Four weeks between runs for Will Clarken since racing over 1200m at Murray Bridge where he was wide throughout and felt the pinch late behind Montign. Back to 1000m I find interesting, but his best is clearly good enough to take this out.

I said after the first up win of 1 Mankayan (Bet Now: $4.00) that he could be the 2022 version of Persan/Grand Promenade. Keep winning, going through the grades and get towards a Melbourne Cup. Lot of staying dominance about his win at Sandown last time, keeping in mind he was several weeks between runs, so he’s got improvement to come and up to 2000m is a big tick.

11 Blue Cup (Bet Now: $4.50) is a promising import for the Maher/Eustace camp. Made his Australian debut behind Lyrical Lad a few weeks back at Caulfield over 1700m and he warmed to the task very nicely at the end when fourth. Like the rise in trip and has enormous upside.

12 Kipps (Bet Now: $18.00) is an improver with fitness and a rise in trip. He is over a month between runs since racing over the mile at Sandown where he struggled to pick his feet up on the bottomless behind Visinari. Back on firmer footing and up to a more suitable trip from a soft gate, expect improvement.

7 Daytona Bay (Bet Now: $2.40) looks hard to beat here. Impressive first up win at Pakenham over 1200m before stepping up to 1400m three weeks ago at Caulfield in a slowly run race and was very good against the race shape behind Cardinal Gem in a race where the form was ticked off a week later in the Silver Bowl Final. Hard to beat here.

5 My Yankee Girl (Bet Now: $4.50) looks a smart filly for John Salanitri. She was set for the Rivette Final here two weeks ago and under a peach from McNeil, she was able to wear them down from off the speed, knuckling down when it counted to win again. Heading in the right direction, she’s hard to beat once again.

13 Kaido (Bet Now: $13.00) has to translate the synthetic form to the turf but he does look a promising animal for Clinton McDonald. Both career outings have come on the Pakenham Synthetic, running second on debut before a dominant win last time. Harder here, but good racing style and has upside/progression.

13 Tamerlane (Bet Now: $5.50) on top in a tricky get out. He’s several weeks between runs since resuming at Randwick where he was good late from off the speed behind dominant winner Waihaha Falls, who bolted up last Saturday. Handles wet ground and is hard to hold out I’d suggest.

7 Florescent Star (Bet Now: $4.40) is bursting to win a race for Team Yargi and I think she gets a great chance here. She got blacktype placing two weeks ago in the Spring Final here, working home with purpose from the back behind Sirius Suspect. If she is within range 300m out, I think she has the finale to overhaul them.

5 The Gauch (Bet Now: $21.00) should appreciate firmer footing. Peter Moody trained gelding that resumed on a very testing Sandown track a few weeks ago and he struggled to pick his feet up in the conditions behind the very much in form Ashford Street. Fitter and up to 1200m, firmer deck, excellent second up record, he can bounce back.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 3 Through Irish Eyes

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 1 Mankayan

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 4 Verifier

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 7, 8, 9, 12, 13

Leg Two: 1

Leg Three: 3, 5, 7, 13

Leg Four: 5, 6, 7, 13

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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