16/5/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Morphettville, The Goodwood day

The Adelaide Carnival, the Group l part of it, concludes on Saturday at Morphettville with arguably the best race Adelaide has to offer, the Group l Goodwood (1200m), the feature. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out eight metres from the 1200m-Winning Post; Out five metres for the remainder.

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5 Lieder (Bet Now: $15.00) gets the nod for me. He is a 2000m specialist, winning two of his past three 2000m outings, with the last two being on the dirt, winning at Alice Springs before a fourth in the Darwin Cup. Ran over the mile here two weeks ago and didn’t think he was too bad in defeat behind Mahis Angel over an unsuitable trip. He’ll love the rise to 2000m so going for some value.

1 Farooq (Bet Now: $3.10) is a Sue Murphy trained four year old that has been kept on ice, having not raced for over a month since taking out the Penola Cup, albeit by a lip. Keep in mind too he was over a month between runs then as well and had to lump 62kg. Actually beat Disco Rebel, who went on to place in the Port Adelaide Cup, so that reads very well despite being a Country Cup, but he’s a proven city performer so giving him respect here.

9 Busker’s Ballad… (Bet Now: $35.00) he just sucks you in in doesn’t he. One moment you pen him for life, and I have in terms of backing him to win. But then he pulls out a good run, like he did last Wednesday at Murray Bridge when he pushed Realm Of Flowers all the way, a filly who looks blacktype quality. Reproduces that here and he’ll fill a first four spot…but he’s very hard to trust.

In the corner of the Team Corstens filly 9 Yes Baby Yes (Bet Now: $13.00). Debuted over 1200m two weeks ago on the Lakeside track at Sandown when back last in the small field before making a strong sustained run to loom up and win, but last 200m, her condition just gave out. Think she’s much better suited here and should take some beating.

6 Diala (Bet Now: $3.30) is the interesting one. Debuted with a win at Caulfield before being terrible at Flemington in the Anzac Day Stakes. Backed up a week later at Sandown Lakeside, where she led, comfortably, and gave a really good kick to get the job done on a day where those near the pace were advantaged. Looks to get near the front again and stable don’t bring them to Adelaide for a holiday.

Going to include 2 Extra Time (Bet Now: $7.50) for the Macdonald/Gluyas team. Both career runs have come over 1050m here. Loved the way he found the line on debut behind Theresabearinthere before contesting the Queen Adelaide when back and wide in a total forgive behind Forever Free. Think up to 1200m is a big tick and love the Blinkers going on.

Tricky race this but going the way of 3 Extreme Thrill (Bet Now: $14.00), who resumes for the Francis/Kent stable. Go back to last prep, gee his form reads well for this. Three back, first up last prep, was good late behind More Than Exceed, then next start was three lengths off Halvorsen before a solid fourth to a horse who was at the time the form galloper in SA, Enough Swagger. Two jumpouts have been solid enough and think he gets a sweet run from the gate.

7 Symphonette (Bet Now: $3.80) is five weeks between runs since resuming at this track/distance where I thought Crowther gave the mare a peach of a ride and it deserved the win, but instead was bloused late by Mum’s My Hero, a horse who is flying at the moment. This mare does tend to race best on the fresh side, so hard to beat against these.

8 White Kaps (Bet Now: $21.00) is a Gordon Richards trained gelding that is three weeks between runs since racing over 1000m on the Parks track when back off the speed and tried hard but couldn’t quite finish it off. Still, far from disgraced when sixth to Seemingly Discreet. Does tend to save his best for the Parks track, but hard to ignore anything the stable saddles up.

Think this is really good placement by the Hayes/Dabernig team with 4 Exeter (Bet Now: $8.50). Hasn’t raced for a few weeks since contesting a race at Sandown and made up ground late in a solid effort behind Final Man, who won next start at Saturday level to tick that form off. Should get three wide cover from the gate here and launch late.

7 Lunar Light (Bet Now: $3.80) is a Will Clarken trained filly that has been given a little freshen up. She raced in the Nitschke on the Parks track over 1400m when given every chance on speed but failed to see the trip out when fourth to Wild Vixen. Has been freshened up back to 1200m and gets the Blinkers on first time, so there is intent, perhaps for the Proud Miss, where she is an emergency, but hard to beat here all the same.

12 Stragun (Bet Now: $91.00) is a horse I couldn’t back to win with confidence but for wider multiples I could certainly include him. He had good specking at odds last time out over 1200m at Bordertown and wasn’t too bad in defeat behind a handy one in Canny Move, beaten four lengths. Proven in town and he is a horse who likes to sit back and finish over the top.

Very interested in the John Sargent filly 5 Stick ‘Em Up (Bet Now: $4.20). Thought she was brave in defeat two back in the ATC Oaks behind Colette before going to a 2350m race at Newcastle and she outstayed her older rivals in impressive fashion. 2500m shouldn’t be an issue for her and she does have that Colette/Toffee Tongue form, which is A1 3YO Filly staying form.

This looks an ideal race for the Anthony Freedman trained filly 3 Realm Of Flowers (Bet Now: $3.60). Missed out on a run in the Oaks so ran last Wednesday at Murray Bridge where she took on the older horses, sat last in the run, peeled widest on the turn and produced a strong sustained finish to get up and win. She should eat up 2500m and is clearly one of the hardest to beat IMO.

Thought 4 Bellx (Bet Now: $9.00) was enormous in the St Leger at Flemington. Made such a long sustained run from the back and did hit the front in the straight, but that hard effort just told on her late when bloused the final few strides. Has that busted her? Time will tell, but she’s another that brings different form from the Oaks and that’s the way I’m leaning.

This just looks such a perfect race for the Chris Waller trained mare 2 Girl Tuesday (Bet Now: $2.60). Struggled in the wet behind Positive Peace in the Emancipation before being freshened up. Had a soft before backing up a few days later in the Hawkesbury Cup and she would have run the fastest ever sideways sectional I think. Just forget she went around. 2000m looks perfect for her, back to Mares grade, a weak Mares race…can’t see her getting beat. Bet of the month.

Archie Alexander won this race last year with Clearly and I think he can win it in 2020 with another former French mare, 7 Lamu (Bet Now: $10.00). She’s been excellent in two Australian runs. Condition gave out late first up at Sandown when a close up fourth to Viral, who won at Caulfield last Saturday to tick that form. Then went to Flemington three weeks ago and was unlucky when held up at a vital stage behind Naivasha. 2000m should be fine for her and this is a clear target race like last year.

14 Wings Of Pastrami (Bet Now: $9.00) is rising in depth but off her Oaks run, I’ll be including her. Thought she was very good behind Toffee Tongue after getting a fair way back in the run and was only beaten a couple of lengths in sixth spot. Could have taken on the fillies over 2500m but like she stays at 2000m against the mares.

9 Harbour Views (Bet Now: $2.70) is a Matty Williams trained galloper that paraded like he would need the run when he resumed at Sandown and while he was never a winning threat, he made up good ground late and was very good in defeat behind Buffalo River. He’s got more upside to come and back on top of the ground is a big tick.

13 Seabrook (Bet Now: $4.50) should have won last start IMO, which was the Queen Of The South two weeks ago at this track/distance. The mare jumped cleanly, and was a couple of lengths in front, but Zac Spain restrained for cover and gave the lead and in the end gave the race away to Shrouded In Mist. She’s flying this mare and confident she can go close to taking this out despite taking on the boys.

6 Waging War (Bet Now: $7.00) is stepping up to the mile and is hard to beat with class on his side. Resumed over 1400m three weeks ago on the Parks track and kept chasing throughout in a game resumption when fourth to impressive winner A Shin Rook. He’ll love the step up to the mile and has more upside than most.

1 Santa Ana Lane (Bet Now: $7.00) is the proven big time performer and did win this race in 2018. There is a little query that he hasn’t really found his best since the Hong Kong trip last year, but in saying that, despite not winning, he has run some ripping races. Plagued by wet tracks this prep, so been kept on ice for this, jumped out okay behind Trekking at Flemington…just wants a firming deck.

Outside Nature Strip, the best sprinter in Australia, on recent form as it stands, is 3 Gytrash (Bet Now: $3.70). It has been a remarkable rise in a short space of time for this Gordon Richards trained four year old. He won the Lightning, beating Nature Strip and Redzel, with some thinking, including myself, that the ride won the race. But he backed it up with placings in the Newmarket and William Reid before blowing Sunlight away in the Irwin. She was terrible in the Sangster, so the form there is a touch suspect, and he draws wide, but he’s just so genuine, reliable, and can produce a strong sustained finale.

Bit surprised there was good double figures for 2 Trekking (Bet Now: $7.50). I thought he would have been closer to favourite, especially with fine weather on the cards leading into Saturday, so anticipating the track to be a Good4/Soft5, which is perfect for him. His effort in the Hall Mark behind Greyworm was enormous given he had to carry 60kg and was forced to make a move on the turn in a slowly run race. Been set for this race, third up last prep was one of the runs of the race in The Everest and his jumpout on Friday at Flemington was outstanding. Think he only runs well.

4 Mystery Love (Bet Now: $5.50) to bounce back here. Put them away like a nice horse first up at Caulfield before going to Sandown where she got back to last in the run and on a day where on speed was the A1 spot to be, she had no chance so a total forgive. If you can pen that run and go off her Caulfield effort, she’s one of the hardest to beat.

10 Too Good Too Hard (Bet Now: $8.50) is a Phillip Stokes trained mare that looks up to these on what she’s done this prep in Melbourne. Thought she was very good at Sandown last time out on that very testing track. She was back near last in the run on a day where on speed was certainly the spot to be and thought she was a definite pass mark from the back. This isn’t the strongest Mares race I’ve seen so think she can measure up.

Barry Brook has 6 Kabini (Bet Now: $17.00) going super at the moment. Was one of the runs of the day two back in the Furphy when second to subsequent Sangster winner Bella Vella before going to the McKay two weeks ago and closing off nicely again when third to Jungle Edge. Back to Mares grade, she has to be rated highly here.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 2 Girl Tuesday

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 9 Harbour Views

LONG SHOT: Race One Number 5 Lieder

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2

Leg Two: 9

Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8

Leg Four: 4, 5, 6, 10

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