15/7/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Flemington Cup day

A nine race program has been set down for Flemington on Saturday. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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Flemington Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Flemington Cup

I think on class alone, 1 Exploring (Bet Now:  $SP.00) wins. Quality filly for James Cummings that resumes, having not raced since the Golden Slipper where she was far from disgraced in defeat behind Shinzo. Short course racing seems to be her go in life and her trial work in Sydney has been outstanding. Looks ready to go IMO and 1/1 down the straight, she’s clearly the one to beat.

6 Ouroboros (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Harry Angel colt for Price/Kent that is one of the key chances. I was quite keen on him when he resumed at Morphettville three weeks ago and he looked home when presented but the bog track just brought him undone late. Back on firmer footing, has the run under the belt, he appeals as a leading contender.

7 Mafia (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks suited back to 1000m. He ran two weeks back down the straight here over 1200m and just found the six furlongs a bridge too far when down the track behind Stellar Olympus. He seems much better placed back in trip and the stable wouldn’t persist with him this prep if there wasn’t petrol left in the tank.

7 Cosmic Enigma (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very nice three year old for Richard Cully. He is several weeks between runs since a dominant maiden win during the Swan Hill Carnival where he looked a good thing on paper and duly saluted under a confident steer from John Allen. The break between runs should be fine and he’s got good upside to come whereas some of these might be looking for the paddock.

5 Slane (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should love the rise to 1700m. He has done little wrong in two career outings. Debuted with an electric all the way win at Sale before going to Sale last Wednesday where not much went right for him and you can make a case that he should have won when third to Movader. Bred to eat up more ground and I think with a more positive ride, he’ll take beating against these.

1 Hard To Cross (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is two weeks between runs for Patrick Payne after racing here last time in the Silver Bowl Final where he got back off the speed but got a decent run in transit and was there to threaten in the straight but couldn’t quite get there when fifth to a nice horse, Golden Path. Was down to run last Saturday over 2000m but remains at this distance range. Definite chance.

9 Lievore (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is worth an each way ticket. Nikki Burke trained mare that resumed at the midweeks at Sandown when on speed throughout and gave a strong but being first up, condition just gave way and she couldn’t quite finish it off, nabbed late by Crimson Light. Fitter, right down in the weights after the claim and with her racing style, she only runs well.

2 Pitchanun (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is several weeks between runs for Danny O’Brien since racing over the mile at Sandown where she got a fair way out of her ground but you had to like the way she finished her race off, finishing hard and just missing out on the win when a narrow second to Flash Flood. Back to Mares grade and back on the home deck, she rates quite highly against these.

Fitter and up to the mile are two big ticks for 3 Silverina (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Liam Howley trains this former Kiwi mare, who made her Australian debut in the Leilani Final when unwanted in betting and while she was never a winning threat, I actually thought she wasn’t too bad in defeat after showing early speed, with her condition just giving way. Like her up in trip and has more upside than most.

I am pretty keen on 7 The Creator (Bet Now:  $SP.00) to make a winning debut down under. 2/2 in NZ and each time he was quite dominant, so much so that OTI have sent him to Price/Kent. His recent jumpout was quiet and while the form guide says it’s Blinkers first time, he wore them in the two NZ wins and didn’t wear them in the jumpout, and with Billy Pinn booked, there is intent.

Fitter and up to 1400m, this is just about D-Day for 1 Tijuana (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Team Hayes trains this three year old, who did win the Stutt Stakes during the Spring but he has gone backwards since. He resumed in the Creswick two weeks back down the straight and just didn’t fire a shot when down the track behind Renosu. Fitter, up in trip, class…it’s getting towards last chance territory.

5 Castillian (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is three weeks between runs for Patrick Payne since racing over 1400m at Caulfield where he got a fair way out of his ground and never really threatened behind Lounge Bar Rubi, beaten just over five lengths in a solid effort. I think getting to a bigger track is a big tick for him and with better luck in the run, he can take this out.

4 Line Of Fire (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top but not really a race I want to get involved in. Bjorn Baker trains this Dundeel colt. He comes here off the back of a maiden win over 1500m at Mudgee where he was on speed throughout and was there to be beaten but he was strong to the line in fending them off and getting the job done. On breeding, 1800m is no issue and always respect the stable when they come this way.

1 Dolphin Skin (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should have no issue with the 1800m for Team Corstens. She had been around the mark in her opening two career runs before taking out the Taj Rossi Final two weeks ago, surging hard late to finish best. Winner of this race gets a free ticket to the Derby/Oaks so there will be intent and off the last start win, an extra 200m should be fine.

9 Sambucus (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is bred to eat up a trip so a rise to 1800m is ideal. Unwanted in betting when debuting over 1200m at Moe where he got back off the speed and was a bit flat footed when the sprint went on but he picked up and was pretty good to the line when fourth. He’ll eat up 1800m and despite the rise in trip, sharp rise, it’s not unusual with this camp.

3 Mimi’s Award (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been a ripping mare for Team Hayes for a couple of seasons and is generally around the mark. Stackhouse rode her with intent a fortnight back here, settling much closer in the run when it came to crunch time and that proved to be the difference as the mare had full momentum and kept going for a strong win. Commands respect the way she’s racing.

8 Mostly Cloudy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) does appear hard to beat but from a betting perspective, gee he is rock bottom IMO. He has placed his past two, firstly over 2000m at Mornington behind Wisaka before going to Rosehill and was good in defeat behind a very nice type, Fawkner Park. He has more upside than most, 2800m is fine…can win clearly, but I’d want $3+ before betting.

1 Irish Sequel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the right form to give this a shake. He ran two weeks back in the Caloundra Cup at the Sunny Coast where he got a fair way out of his ground and while he was never a threat, he was good late behind the very much in form Zoumon. The depth here is nowhere near as strong and with D Oliver, he appeals as a key chance.

5 Yulong Storm (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a beauty for Nathan Hobson and has to be regarded as one of the hardest to beat. Home town victory two back in the Golden Topaz at Swan Hill before going to the Santa Ana Lane Final here two weeks ago where he got back to near last and in an on pace dominated race, he worked home strongly behind Mnementh. If he can settle closer and be within range, he’ll launch at them late.

6 He’s Our Bonneval (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to win. Thought the win would come a few weeks back at Sandown but he just couldn’t go with Pacific Ruby late and had to settle for another second. Finding it hard to greet the judge first but is around the mark this prep and I do think he races well on the fresh side so the break between runs is no issue.

9 Dance To Dubai (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is capable with her best. Peter Moody trained mare that ran two weeks back in the Santa Ana Lane Final where she was just off the speed throughout and tried to get involved but was never really a factor behind Mnementh. She tends to race best when allowed to roll on speed so if that eventuates here, she can run a much improved race.

2 Milford (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door. He ran three weeks ago at Caulfield over this trip and I thought was given a peach steer by Shinn but was no match late for the very much in form Normandy Bridge. I do prefer him at Caulfield than Flemington but he is only fourth up here, so he has room for improvement and has more upside than most.

6 Cherry Tortoni (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is three weeks between runs for Patrick Payne since racing over this trip at Caulfield where he seemed to get into a decent enough spot near the speed and I thought was there to be right in the mix but just couldn’t quite get involved behind Normandy Bridge. Like him back to Flemington and I think he’d be better if ridden a touch more conservatively.

15 Fifth Position (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands some level of respect here IMO. Price/Kent trained gelding that comes through the Normandy Bridge race from three weeks back at Caulfield where he got back to near last in the run and while he was never really a threat, I didn’t mind the way he finished his race off, his first look at 2000m for the prep. He has that under the belt, which should hold him in good stead.

2 Najem Suhail (Bet Now:  $SP.00) gets the nod in the get out. Griffiths/De Kock trains this gelding, who resumes. He hasn’t raced since Feb 5 when racing in a strong race at Sale and was far from disgraced in defeat behind a nice horse, Jungle Jim. He is a horse who can sprint well fresh and did look sharp in a Cranbourne jumpout win last week. Happy to be in his corner.

3 William Thomas (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a John Price trained gelding that resumes. This guy hasn’t raced since Feb 23 at Pakenham when back near last in the run and did make up solid headway but was never really a threat behind So Risque. He sprints well on the fresh side, he has run well down the straight previously and will be stronger than most at the end.

6 Boss Lady Rocks (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a short course specialist that I think is suited here for Ron Stubbs. She ran over 1100m at Caulfield three weeks ago where she got back off the speed, somewhat against her pattern, but didn’t mind the way she finished her race off behind Viviane. Like her back to 1000m and with a more positive steer, she’ll take running down.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 7 The Creator

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Exploring

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 9 Lievore

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 8

Leg Two: 1, 5, 6, 9

Leg Three: 2, 4, 6, 11, 15

Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 6, 9

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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