15/5/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Morphettville, The Goodwood day

Not a strong race to start the meeting, but for the sake of a tip, landed with 7 Laundy (Bet Now: $2.30 TOP ODDS) for the Busuttin/Young camp. Few weeks between runs since racing at Caulfield. He was just off the speed and battled on pretty well in defeat behind Blue Ocean, who ran well at this level at this track the start prior, so the form is easy to tie in.

2 Dr Dependable (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) has had two runs back from a spell, both coming at the mile, and is racing as if the rise to 2000m will suit. Latest run was a fortnight back here behind Ace Of Clubs. He had a suck run near the speed and battled on strongly, beaten just over a length. Hard to beat with upside.

1 Von Costa Glass (Bet Now: $17.00 TOP ODDS) should appreciate the rise to 2000m. Had good market support at odds when racing over the mile here two weeks ago where he didn’t get the best of runs when wanting to get clear and I thought he should have finished a bit closer behind Ace Of Clubs. Up to 2000m, a win wouldn’t entirely shock.

Godolphin and James Cummings haven’t got it wrong when they have sent their juveniles to this Carnival and I think 7 Heresy (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) can continue that trend. Debuted a few weeks ago at Geelong and worked home with real purpose late in the piece, just missing out on the win. Better for the run and Olly rides

1 Karacasu (Bet Now: $3.30 TOP ODDS) is a talented juvenile for the Jolly camp that has been kept on ice for this race. Few weeks between runs since racing in the Breeders when off the speed and looming large to win. Just couldn’t quite get past Cloudy, who has run well since. If he can get luck from the gate, he’ll take beating.

8 Legless Lady (Bet Now: $20.00 TOP ODDS) should be suited up to 1200m for the Macdonald/Gluyas yard. This filly debuted a fortnight back when unwanted in betting, but despite that, I thought she ran really well behind See You In Spring. She will definitely improve off that outing and big tick for her is getting to 1200m.

I’ll go the way of the Team Jolly trained gelding 6 Kayseri (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS), who resumes. Hasn’t raced since October 31 when just off the speed and tried hard, but couldn’t finish it off behind the then in form Kenyan Wonder. Looked sharp in a recent jumpout win and is a first up winner. He’ll do me in a tricky race.

Not sure what to make of 11 Maddox (Bet Now: $3.60 TOP ODDS) and her win at Ballarat last time out. Visually, she was very sharp from on speed, leading throughout and spanking them. Time was good, she did it being eased down late, form has been franked…I think she has to be respected in a race like this.

If they can run on from the back, 12 Atomic Lokade (Bet Now: $101.00 TOP ODDS) is a sneaky chance at a big price. Resumed at Gawler on Anzac Day and wasn’t too bad from the back behind Extra Mile, who ran well last Saturday here, so the form doesn’t read too bad for a race like this. One for wider multiples.

1 Rubisaki (Bet Now: $2.50 TOP ODDS) is flying and I think she’s clearly the one to beat. Jury was out on her after the Spring, but her two runs back have been outstanding. Really caught the eye fresh at Caulfield before going to the Sangster and I think the bias against her certainly didn’t help her cause, but still, she was fabulous when third to Instant Celebrity. If she’s within range on the turn, she wins.

4 Brooklyn Hustle (Bet Now: $2.80 TOP ODDS) has talent. Problem is she has such an awful racing pattern hence why she has only won two races. She was a flashing light run, again, this time in the Sangster behind Instant Celebrity, once again clocking great late splits. But good late splits means nothing if you can’t produce it early on. She needs things to fall into place, but she can win if they do.

10 Smokin’ Val (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) is a sneaky chance here despite taking on the Mares. She ran two weeks back in the Tobin Bronze where she didn’t get much luck at all in the run, covering ground and then getting checked. Still, fought on really well when fifth to Beau Rossa. If she gets the rub of the green, she can win.

3 Flexible (Bet Now: $2.70) on top for me. James Cummings trained filly that was unlucky I thought in the Oaks two weeks ago. Just didn’t get the clearest of paths in the straight in what was a frustrating day for Pike. The run was still very good and off that, the rise to 2500m should be no issue.

4 Mimi’s Award (Bet Now: $5.50) commands respect. This Hayes/Dabernig filly beat up a moderate lot at Wangaratta, but she did win by seven lengths over the 2000m and won with plenty in hand to the eye under Josh Richards. Progressive and comes here in a purple patch, so she gets respect.

Maher/Eustace 2000m+ so 7 Penso A Lei (Bet Now: $34.00) has to be in the mix. It was a sit/sprint she won at Werribee last time out but she was still strong late to the line and what we see with this stable and they’re stayers, they are bred to eat up a staying trip. Sounds simple in theory, and it works, so the 2500m here should be fine.

I want to give 1 In Good Health (Bet Now: $4.40) another chance. Can understand why the jury is out on her after a few runs back from a spell, the latest being the Queen Of The South when a 0.9L fifth. But, since Moods has taken over, her 2000m record, gee it reads well. Close up in a Naturalism and Herbert Power…any hint of that produced here and she wins.

This looks an obvious target race for the Team McEvoy mare 4 Shop Til I Drop (Bet Now: $4.80). Condition just gave out fresh when second to Surreal Image. Stayed at the mile in the Queen Of The South and worked home strongly nearer the inside when second to Fabric. Saves her best for this trip and looks cherry ripe for it.

8 Kiss And Cry (Bet Now: $46.00) should appreciate the rise in trip. She also contested the Queen Of The South. Just found the mile a bit sharp but was far from disgraced in defeat I thought behind Fabric. Mick Kent loves to target a Mares race, especially over a middle distance trip, so keen to see how she goes.

I’m with 8 Lord Vladivostok (Bet Now: $8.50). Was keen on him when he raced here two weeks ago. But the notable market drift suggested otherwise and in the end, it was proven right. Couldn’t have put enough on him 300m out, but he didn’t go on with it and flattened out to run third. It just screamed of a back me next start in a target race. I think this is the target race.

6 Vassilator (Bet Now: $3.80) is going really well at the moment for Colin Little. Thought it was a smart steer by Olly to win at Flemington on Anzac Day. Sat back off the good speed, tracked up behind the right horses before edging wider and timing his run to perfection to wear down the leaders. Good speed engaged here, so he’ll get his chance to finish over the top.

5 Master Chum (Bet Now: $46.00) is better suited over further, but his resumption behind Groundswell three weeks back on the Parks track was very encouraging. Market liked him at big odds and he ran up to that mini push with an eye catching finale. I think with improvement off that, he’s right in the mix.

When Calvin McEvoy stated after the win of 6 Savatoxl (Bet Now: $16.00) in the McKay that he was heading towards the Goodwood, I thought he was mad. But, race wise, it was clearly the best last 400m/200m of the day, he did it from the front and the thing with him is that he likes to get control in front. I think that is what he’ll get here, with stablemate Dollar For Dollar outside him on speed. He has race fitness on his side over key rivals here. Make this a proper 1200m contest please Barend.

I think if ever 8 Beau Rossa (Bet Now: $12.00) is going to win a Group l, it will come here. Will Clarken has a very smart horse on his hands here and I think strike while the iron is hot, and this horse is indeed hot. Bit of arrogance about his win in the Tobin Bronze two weeks ago, and it was a big win considering he was two weeks between runs and back from the mile to 1200m. I think he’ll only run well.

3 Kemalpasa (Bet Now: $9.50) is just a beauty for the Jolly camp. So genuine and has an outstanding overall record. Been kept on ice since a dominant win in the Irwin when on speed throughout and when clicked up, away he went and he was dominant. 1200m I like for him, he’ll put himself near the speed and give his all.

12 Ambidazzle (Bet Now: $3.60) for me. Phillip Stokes trained mare that was 1400m back to 1200m when racing here two weeks ago. Sat back in the run before slicing her way through the field, drove hard late to just miss out on the win when a narrow second to stablemate Lady Dunmore. Think she can go one better.

7 Lady Dunmore (Bet Now: $7.00) is racing well at the moment. Peach from Williams saw her win here a fortnight back. Got a fair way off them but as Williams does this time of year, he produced her with perfect timing, surging hard late to win. She’s hard to catch but a repeat effort sees her go close.

8 Munster (Bet Now: $9.00) is a Michael Hickmott trained gelding that resumes. Did a pretty good job for the stable last prep, which ended with a strong win at Gawler. One quiet jumpout last week at Murray Bridge to get ready for his return and he does have a fair bit of progression compared to most engaged.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 1 Rubisaki

NEXT BEST: Race Race Two Number 7 Heresy

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 6 Savatoxl

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 8, 13

Leg Two: 5, 6, 8, 10

Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8

Leg Four: 7, 8, 12, 17

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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