15/4/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Morphettville, Auraria Stakes day

The Adelaide Carnival warms up this Saturday at Morphettville where it is Auraria Stakes Day, with the 1800m feature being a key lead up towards the SA Oaks. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out eight metres from the 1200m-Winning Post; Out five metres for the remainder.

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Auraria Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Auraria Stakes

2 Heuristic (Bet Now:  $SP.00) hasn’t done much wrong in four career outings and is one of the leading chances here. Did a solid job fresh at Bendigo behind impressive winner and subsequent Gold Rush winner Shesallshenanigans before going to Cranbourne where he got lost on the turn but balanced up in the straight and drove hard late to just miss out on the win when second to Shoresay. Third up now, hard fit, winnable race, he’ll do me.

1 Harley’N’Rose (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can be a definite improver here for the Richards/Moyle stable. He was a drifter in the market when resuming over this track/distance two weeks ago. Nothing really went right for him behind the speed and wasn’t too bad in the run to the line behind Chilled. He has good room for improvement and off the debut win, that was a good enough to take this effort out.

8 Nasho (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Team Oxlade trained juvenile that is three weeks between runs since racing on the Parks track where he was on speed throughout and tried hard but just lacked the quality to go with them late behind I Am Unstoppable, who won a Stakes race last Saturday to the frank the form. I reckon the end of 1100m is the query, but with a cheap run on speed, he can run well.

5 Sous Les Nuages (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has proven himself to be a very solid SA raider when he makes the trip across from Victoria and he does find a thin staying contest here to continue that positive trend. He ran two weeks ago at Bendigo over 2400m where he was a bit one paced in the run to the line but battled on well enough in defeat behind Caboche. Form was franked via Sing For Peace at Sandown on Monday…surely he beats these given he is hard fit, in form, strong late and brings better form lines.

1 Sebonna (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect in a race like this. He was thrown in the deep end when contesting the Adelaide Cup Day and I thought ran a decent race from the back. Albeit he was never a threat, he did make up headway and was far from disgraced in defeat behind Rebel Racer. Back to this level, he’s had the freshen up to get over that run and drops miles in grade/depth. Leading chance.

7 Kutayha (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is unknown at the trip but has a good racing style based on last time and if he gets a cheap time of it, he can be dangerous. He ran over 2000m here two weeks back when outside the speed and sticking on well enough in defeat when third to Crown Mint. Not sure he is going well enough to win on recent form, but with racing style and the map, I wouldn’t totally pen him.

11 Lakehurst (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is bursting to win another race and I think he gets a great chance here. He ran in a similar race to this two weeks ago over 1100m here. Neindorf rode with intent, landing on speed, and was there to win the race, but couldn’t quite finish it off when second to Prairie Fire. I reckon ridden with a touch more patience, he’ll be more effective at the end and prove hard to beat.

2 Manage The Cycle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has found winning form and he can certainly go on with it. That win came at the midweeks at Balaklava over 1050m where he got back off the speed before coming wit a well timed run and he charged late to get the job done, clocking decent enough late splits relative to the meeting. Has run well at Saturday metro level previously and strikes a winnable race.

6 Effortkat (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a definite winning chance for Shayne Cahill. This mare ran in the Prairie Fire race from two weeks back over 1100m here. She got back in an on speed dominated affair so the fact she made up good ground from near last was a run full of merit. She does have versatility re racing pattern so if she can settle closer, she will still be effective at the end.

5 Stretan Angel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should take beating against these. Phillip Stokes trains this Harry Angel filly, that debuted over 1100m here two weeks ago and really, it was just a lack of race manners and sense that beat her, getting back and working home strongly late to run second to Chilled. Has that run under the belt, which should hold her in good stead for this assignment.

2 Remedies (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a short course filly for James Cummings who looks extremely well placed against these. She has been kept on ice since the Magic Night at Rosehill, five weeks ago over 1200m where she was near the speed throughout and fought on well enough in defeat behind dominant winner Steel City. They have tried stretching her out but 1000m is her go in life, well 1050m here anyway, and her jumpout last week at Flemington was a good piece of work. Hard to beat.

8 Belnera (Bet Now:  $SP.00) creates some level of interest. Very rare to see Mick Kent with a two year old but he has this filly here on debut in a Stakes race. She’s had three jumpouts to get ready for start one and has steadily got better with each hitout, winning the latest. Not sure she can win, but draws a gate to do no work and on breeding, she should be strong at the end. Knockout hope.

9 Floral Oasis (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top for me. Not easy coming out a maiden straight to 68 grade in town but it was hard to ignore the way she made a mess of them fresh in a maiden at Balaklava. She did a bit wrong but the change up speed was there for all to see and she spanked them in pretty good time. More depth here, clearly, but confident she measures up.

3 Scenic Host (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Michael O’Leary trained mare that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since November 27 at Warrnambool when back and wide but kept finding the line in a good effort behind Star Spirit in what has turned out to be a hot form reference with five winners coming out of it. Can sprint well fresh and in a truly run 1200m, she’ll be stronger than most.

4 Starsongari (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is first up here for Chris Bieg and commands respect IMO. Her last run came at Gawler on Jan 7 where it was an end of prep run, finishing down the track behind Wonderwomen, who was flying at the time, so that form reads well enough for this and she is a mare who goes well early on in the prep, so watch the market.

1 Chicago Storm (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has fresh legs and a pretty good overall record to say he is one of the main contenders. David Aldridge trained gelding is four weeks between runs since a strong win over 1400m on the Parks track where he had the suck run behind the speed before angling into clear air and finishing best to win impressively. I do think he is a much better 1200m horse and he does have a touch of quality about him. He’ll do me.

10 Noble Magnate (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given another look. Team Jolly trained three year old that resumed here a fortnight back when four wide no cover for the trip and that hard run told in the straight when down the track behind impressive winner Press Down. Draws to get a much more economical run in transit and his efforts from the first prep suggested he has a decnet engine under the hood, so don’t dismiss him.

9 Knightstown (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is dangerous with his best. He resumed over this track/distance a fortnight back when sitting back in a slowly run race, full of running. He did get held up for a few strides but was out in time to threaten. He made ground but was never really threatening impressive winner Grinzinger Prince. Might want one more and a rise in trip, but he has shown before that he is up to this level.

2 Trumpsta (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is certainly capable of taking this out. Three weeks between runs since racing over 1550m on the Parks track where he got back to near last in the run and made up solid headway without threatening behind Naboo Star. I do think he’s a much better horse on the Parks track compared to the course proper but he’ll be strong at the end whereas some of these may be suspect late.

4 Angaston (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a key threat. He ran third to Miss Kermie at this track/distance a fortnight back and I thought the run had merit to it given the sit/sprint set up probably didn’t suit him a great and he was left flat footed when the sprint went on but picked up and was pretty good to the line. Has that 1600m run under the belt now, which should hold him in good stead.

9 Master At Arms (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is certainly capable with his best. He ran over 1400m at the midweeks at Balaklava last time where he was trucking behind the good speed. Just a matter of getting clear air and once he got it, he drove hard, went through his gears and was too good. He’s racing like 1600m will suit and despite being more depth engaged here, he commands respect.

Back in trip I do like for 13 Running On Time (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Maher/Eustace trains this filly, who comes back to 1800m from the 2040m of the Alister Clark on All Star Mile Day where she was near the speed throughout and fought on well enough in defeat but couldn’t quite get there behind Bank Maur. The depth here is not as strong and with the Maher/Eustace polish, she’ll do me.

3 Pearl Adios (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has found winning form and is holding, so with that in mind, I do think he commands respect despite a rise to Stakes grade. The last start win came a fortnight back at this track/distance, giving them a start and a beating and with full momentum, he surged hard late and was strong to the line in winning. Harder here, but hard to knock the way he’s going.

4 Prince Tikea (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a break and should just about be at peak fitness. Eye catching return on the Parks track behind Party Princess before going to this track/distance where he got back in the run and did a bit wrong but wasn’t too bad in the run to the line behind Pearl Adios. Can settle closer in the run if need be and being near hard fit, that can certainly eventuate.

2 Let’sbefrankbaby (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should prove hard to beat. Griffiths/De Kock trained filly that resumed on the home deck at Cranbourne under the lights against the Mares off the back of strong jumpout work. Market said she was there to win and despite a few nervous moments in the straight, her class came to the fore and she was much too good. Fitter, up in trip with the runs on the board from the Spring, she’s clearly hard to beat.

1 More Reward (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one with upside/timing that has clear intentions towards the Oaks. Eye catching return over 1400m before going to the Clare Lindop where she got a mile out of her ground and while she was never a threat, I really liked the way she found the line late in the piece behind As Time Goes By. With a rise in trip, hopefully she can settle closer in the run, and if that eventuates, she’ll take beating.

18 Ravin (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a big price. She has been quite good in two runs back from a spell, the latest being in a 1700m maiden at Sale where she was very one paced when initially asked for the effort but she ran through the pain barrier and was very good in the run to the line behind Paris Affair. Blinkers on signals real intent and with luck from the wide gate, she’ll go close.

Fitter and up to 1100m are two big ticks for 9 Saville (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He was kept relatively safe in betting when resuming in the Shirshov race from three weeks back on the Parks track. He got back to near last in the run and while he was never a threat, I didn’t mind the way he found the line late, beaten just over four lengths. He is a second up winner and can settle closer in the run if need be. Reckon he is worth a throw at the stumps.

1 Shirshov (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done a really solid job since joining Phillip Stokes. 2/2 for the stable, the latest win coming three weeks ago on the Parks track over 1000m. I loved the ticker he showed to win because he was there to be beaten but he found under pressure to fend them off and score a narrow but strong win. If he can stretch that out to 1100m, he’s certainly one of the hardest to beat.

10 Bajan Belle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given another chance. She resumed at Murray Bridge where she bombed the start and that sealed her fate, finishing down the track behind Lancelotto. Few gear changes to hopefully make her jump clean because off her efforts last prep, she is certainly good enough to be dangerous against these. I’d watch the market and see what it does.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 2 Let’sbefrankbaby

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 5 Sous Les Nuages

LONG SHOT: Race Ten Number 9 Saville

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 2, 4, 6, 9

Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 13

Leg Three: 2

Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 9, 10

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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